BY DAN

You can hear it coming like a hundred horses thundering towards you. It’s reverberating in your soul. People are talking about it in the bars, the supermarkets, the places of worship. People whisper. They exchange knowing glances. They hold each other, in hope, in fear, bursting at the seams at what might be.

Footy is almost back.

The people yearn for football. Luckily we’re about to enter trial season, which is kinda like the real thing but there’s 40 man rosters like someone is going to play special teams. Games don’t matter. Scratch that. Results don’t matter, but how the results come to pass does. Only sickos watch trials, so of course we’ll be covering them with our usual je ne sais quoi.

There are so many questions this year. Canberra are entering a season that has been tagged with giant block letters: NO EXPECTATIONS. It’s all part of the plan you see. We’ve got these kids. We’re going to get some games into them. Can’t blame them if it doesn’t work out. Can’t blame Sticky either. It’s basically simulate the season and come back next year to see how far we got. Get minutes into the kids. Build for tomorrow. Win the premiership in 2027. Or 2029. At some point. The plan is elegant in its simplicity.

But underlying this beguiling tale is nothing but questions. Has the club recruited the right players to develop into heroes? Can they develop these players, take the round mounds of clay and turn them into Pieta? Or is the club more likely to end up molding a Dwayne Wade statue? Even if the players were the right ones, and appropriately developed, is there enough structure, in game strategy, an appropriate way of playing, to consistent deliver wins? The bravest answer wins.

It’s hard to answer those questions but there’s enough of a track record for some riposte. The Raiders have seemingly been pretty good at identifying talent before it makes ‘the leap’. It’s a history that goes back before this regime, but during Stick’s time they’ve shown enough of a penchant for it that you can back them in here. Hudson Young, Joe Tapine, Jack Wighton, Xavier Savage et al. There’s something to hang your hope hat on.

On the development angle that’s less clear. For all of the above stories of triumph, there’s been the disheartening moments where the Milk haven’t been able to turn talent into output. Just last off-season Adrian Trevilyan left the club. A ballyhooed recruit, Trevilyan was recognised by Peter Mulholland as a potentially once in a generation player and noted by Josh Hodgson as a key part of the future. Even upon his departure, Coach Stuart remarked on how sure he was he’d play first grade footy one day. So the talent was there, but Canberra were never able to unlock it.

It’s not a standalone story. Brad Schneider left on similar vibes. Harley Smith-Shields, Semi Valemei were similar. Ata Mariota and Trey Mooney have shown what they have but no one would call them consistent yet. The Raiders even tried to bring back Leo Thompson, someone they’d failed to develop, after he’d succeeded elsewhere. You obviously can’t win them all, but when your future is based on the idea that you’ve acquired the six-to-eight pieces of talent that you can build a squad around, it can make a man nervous.

Development goes hand in hand with building clear structures, roles, and ways of working across the club. This too is a complicated story. Coach Stuart is stubborn within seasons, but he has been willing to change the his style between years to match his squad. We’ve essentially been through three different models of Raiders during his tenure. But this latest version has been in stasis for around three years now, with no sign of change or abatement. We haven’t seen enough of the new breed to know if this way of working will suit. We have hope that if he doesn’t the style will change. But we know Stuart can be stubborn enough to stick with what he thinks should be than what is.

The final challenge underlining all this is the commitment to the bit. There’s been so much discussion about dual horizons, patience, and the need to lower expectations in order to chase future goals. But what happens when circumstances demand winning? Could Stick stand it if the Milk lost three, four, five in a row? Would he throw out developing the talent in order to maximise the now? What happens if there’s three games left in the season and the finals are still a possibility? What wins then: now or the future? In recent seasons we’ve seen him lean on Rapana, Whitehead, and other more experienced players in order to make a fleeting (and ultimately meaningless) run at the finals. Does this still apply?

These are all questions that we have inklings of answers too, but this is meant to be a new age. Stuart has shifted before. Perhaps now is the time he sheds his skin and reveals a new man. This borders on the line between optimism and naievity but that’s the game plan right now. We’ve picked the talent that we hope can win a premiership. It feels insane and arrogant to think this will work. But it’s the best plan we have.

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