BY DAN

You can almost smell it.

It’s too early for ‘mathematical chance’ to be bandied about. The ‘Playing for pride’ time of year is hopefully months away. But we are getting awfully close to ‘must win’ season for the Canberra Raiders.

Next week they play their 12th game of the season, the halfway point of the year. They’re already two wins outside the eight – which is not an insurmountable gap and also kind of remarkable how bad things have felt at points this year.

But it’s a gap they wouldn’t want to get bigger (and obviously would prefer it to get smaller). While one might think that’s just a sneaky end-of-season run away from finals footy, they still don’t have anything resembling their best line up, and they’ll be potentially missing Ethan Strange and Hudson Young in games to come.

Winning is always the aim but the desperation is increasing. Canberra has barely had a moment to breathe this season, constantly fighting for every victory. Their average margin of victory is less than a try, far and away the lowest margin of victory in the league (well, except for the Dragons). But their average margin of loss is less than nine teams ahead of them on the ladder, including the Riff, the Roosters and the Warriors. Turns out their style of play keeps everyone in the games.

Partly that is because they are inconsistent in their attacking movements. Sometimes they look electric. Each of their tries against the Panthers was immaculate. Their first try against the Dolphins was a perfect shift on their opening set. Ethan Sanders’ pass to Savelio Tamale to put him into space on the movement that started the Raiders’ third was a beautiful example of what that side of the field is capable of. But often they look bereft of ideas or space, and cannot keep their hands on the ball.

Partly that is because their defense suffers from having too many weaknesses. Last year we bemoaned the right edge as Canberra’s Achilles heel. This year it’s hard to say what the Raiders are good at defensively. They’re barely holding on in the middle. Their edges get pulled apart on the regular. They’re not really good a defusing kicks. I guess if you count Kaeo Weekes’ kick return as a part of the defence you might have something.

Neither side of the ball has been helped by the constant chopping and changing of the line-up. The attack has plenty of talent but without time together we keep seeing minute errors in timing affecting the structured attack.

They currently average the second most tackle-busts per game (42.6 to the Panthers 43.3 per Code Sports Stats) but that only results in the 12th most line breaks. This is potentially evidence that individuals are creating advantage, but cohesion (or lack thereof) isn’t allowing them to take advantage.

While progress has been made in certain aspects (particularly between the young halves), putting the team together like a new puzzle each week is making it hard for them to operate with the same precision in their movements as other teams, as we saw in the red-zone at the end of the ‘Phins and Panthers losses.

Defensively they need bodies and people playing in the right position. Middles playing middle instead of edge. Hookers not having to get through 65 minutes as part of the middle rotation. Middle forwards playing high energy for 45 minutes instead of tiring over 65. Centres playing centre, wingers playing winger, and Jed Stuart not playing either (I kid, Jed you were fine against the Phins. But I would prefer if our big names were in the game).

If there’s a hope that the Raiders will have it’s that this weekend gives them a chance to have a more settled side. That chopping and changing got even more chaotic in the lead up to the Phins game when Seb Kris pulled out in the warm-up. Hopefully the mini-bye (the long rest from a Thursday game to a Sunday game) means he’s ready.

Presuming both Strange and Young back up from Origin (which seems fair, Hudson is insane and Ethan probably won’t play…and also insane), they’ll have their best side in weeks. All the pieces will be in the right holes. They’ll even have bench forwards they can use that aren’t a hooker or a backup fullback. `

In that regard I hope Jordan Uta is not a ‘one-and-done’ choice. He only played thirteen minutes but was fine in defence, and effective running the ball in the middle. He might not be ready for big time minutes, but 15 minutes of beef is going to make a host of players’ jobs a lot easier, particularly Brailey. Thursday’s loss really exposed how Canberra are no longer getting away with playing him for long minutes as a middle forward.

This side is too good to be in this position this early in the season. If they can keep it together until they get Simi, Papa, and maybe another treat like Noah Martin or Joe Roddy, they can still make the league feel them this year. But if they keep losing, they’ll jump through ‘must win’ to ‘playing for pride’ so fast you won’t have finished doing the maths on mathematical chance.

However they cut it, they’re getting awfully close to ‘must win’ season. There’s only one way to stave that off.

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