Welcome to nut crunch time.

To paraphrase the philosophers Wet Leg, are your nuts crunched? Would you like us to assign someone to crunch your nuts? Canberra better be ready for that, because if the Raiders were to lose this weekend, it’s season over, in everything but mathematical reality.

The Raiders have not been good lately, more often than not at least. They do not have their best players available. They have not even picked their best players of those that are available. They simply must win, because if they don’t, well…[deep sigh]. It’s not so much that they couldn’t make the finals after a loss this weekend. The competition’s flatness ensures anything is a possibility.

But if Canberra can’t beat the Eels second-string team then it’s time to be real. Even with their own absences, even without Huddo and Stranger. Even in a downswing of form and confidence. If there’s no victory this weekend, then the conversation should be what’s better for 2027 than what is achievable in 2026. Because it would mean this year is just another of those frustrating years of standing on rakes in the hope of finding the pathway through.

As we noted earlier in the week, they’re sticking with their unproven formula of relying on Jayden Brailey to get through at least forty minutes of game play at lock. That’s proving a limit on what they can achieve, particularly in the redzone where the lack of threat of his run allows defensive resources to be deployed wider. Playing Joe Roddy at backrow might allow less reliance on Brailey, but Stick hasn’t gone that way. He’s also stuck with Jed Stuart, who arguably had his worst game in first grade last week.

The Eels don’t have their usual names, and if you watched them play last week you’d know they can be got in the middle. Canberra’s pack hasn’t been up to scratch this year. If there’s ever been an opportunity to ‘get right’, this is it. Straight down the hey diddle boys. That’s where the gold lies.

But in defence Canberra’s edges will be tested. Isaiah Iongi and Joash Papalii can play footy, using quick feet and faster hands to create mayhem if defences give them space. The Raiders gave their opposition an acre of the stuff last week. If there’s a criticism of the middle that isn’t being said loudly enough, it’s that they keep doing that. It’s been a problem all year, and without reinforcements (which they won’t have unless Vena Patuki-Case gets a long run), there’s always the risk that nothing will change. And while the Eels can’t tackle, they can run.

This is the key to the game. The forwards can be determinative, a comparative advantage in this game. Their potential to dominate would reduce the impact of the Eels’ shifty spine players. It would also suit their own spine players, all of whom can run, and who would benefit from the broken-field opportunities it would afford. It’s also easier than having to connect in shape in the way the Raiders have struggled this year. A simplified structure may also allow them to avoid some of the ball-handling and discipline issues that have plagued them.

It’s a simple prognosis, but the Raiders’ problems have been endemic this year. Any assumption that they’ll just ‘sort it out’ on Saturday night should be treated with scepticism. They were so poor against the Roosters that the Eels courageous but highly flawed effort against the Dogs is being rated more highly by the general commentariat.

Canberra is at the proverbial fork (yeah?). One way they can start the process of salvaging their season. The other is 2027. It’s time to take a swig of your favourite courage juice and get ready for nut-crunching time.

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