The main takeaway from today’s team list is that Corey Horsburgh’s time with the Raiders is almost certainly over.
Horsburgh has been dropped, as most sane people would have expected after Coach Stuart’s feedback after the Newcastle game. That it has ended his time in Canberra was similarly inevitable. He’s apparently been given permission to start looking for a new contract elsewhere. The Horse, while not yet bolting, is just looking for a fence to jump to freedom.
The word has always been Brisbane, but Perth are throwing their hats in the ring. The Bears would be a good fit for Corey. He could be the pack leader he’s always wanted to be without the pressure-cooker environment of Brisbane. Madge Maguire is a lot of things, but someone to suffer fools isn’t it. I’d hate to see Corey re-enact the same mistakes, under a bigger microscope. If he went to Perth he’d even have a buddy in Morgan Smithies. Either way he’ll be equally present next year for the Milk as he will in this weekend’s game.
Ata Mariota has been thankfully spared of edge-duty, being brought back into starting prop to replace Corey. He’s averaged 117.3 metres per game over the six games since round 17, which is about 30 more per game than his career best from last year.
He’s – hopefully – entering the prime of his career and the Raiders need to start letting him breathe. He averages 72.9 metres per game off the bench this year, as opposed to 113.8 as a starter. That’s not surprising, in that starters generally get more minutes and more opportunities than the bench mob, but it also suggests he handles the step up comfortably. Canberra are going to need him to do that next year, so why not start now?
His move brings Matty Nicholson in the starting lineup. I’m keen to see how he goes this game. He was a standout surprise over the first half of last year until his body broke. When he came back he didn’t have the agility that had allowed him to handle the defensive load and unleash his hard lines on the other end. In a brief 40 the other day I was trying to ascertain whether than had come back post this injury and my view was incomplete.
If he can’t hack the role I think it might solidify him for first back-up backrower next year, and perhaps a transition to the middle of the park. He’s a lanky fella, but he’s a hard worker. I think he could handle the load in the middle, but it might take a bit of a physical evolution before he could thrive there. In the past Stick has spoken how it might take a few offseasons take for him to properly physically develop. How he goes in this game may determine the trajectory of that work in the offseason.
It’s also pleasing to see Savelio Tamale back in the first-grade side. He’s named at centre, in the place of “resting for a week, then playing, then surgery” Simi Sasagi. It will be interesting to see if Tamale starts there, or on the wing. The Sharks do like to torment edges in defence, and my read of Sav the centre has always been a bit Randy Jackson in defence (‘that’s a bit pitchy dawg’). Is making errors on defensive reads less debilitating than dropping bombs? I dunno.
Whatever happens I support the idea of just letting him focus on running. He’s such a weapon in that regard and provides a platform that the Raiders have noticeably missed this year. With him, Mokes, Sasagi and Taps, you have the first four hit ups of an exit set that will make the opposition wince. The absence of that combination on a consistent basis this year has had a big effect on the collapse of the Raiders’ middle. The Milk need to find a way to get him right, because when he’s right they’ve got a no-fooling rep player.
Which of course is what we always said about Corey. We assumed he’d drop the mental mistakes too and become the fully rounded footballer most expected. Instead he’s on his way out, dishonorably discharged. Fed into Stick’s hot-take cannon and fired two states away, the direction to be determined.
This is the start of a process of transition. Stuart hasn’t delivered on the youth plan he hinted at in the press conference. There is no shiny new toy here. In true fashion Stuart has taken a small step, but with Horsburgh likely out the door, a significant one nonetheless.
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