BY DAN

After the passage of time that somehow went as fast as both your first beer in the pub and the last hour of work, the 2024 season is here. It’s time the play the music. It’s time to light the lights. The games have begun.

This is simultaneously one of the more important seasons in recent Raider history, and also unimportant. As much as it pains me to admit this team is probably not winning the competition this year. Of this i’m like 99 per cent certain (hope? Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. My dawg Andy Dufresne said that). So pack up and go home right?

Not so fast. This season, like your beauty, will echo in eternity (*winks at you*). Canberra are building a new era. Well three concurrently in a sense. There’s the group we’ve spent all summer talking about. Ethan Strange, Chevy Stewart, Hohepa Puru, and maybe Ethan Sanders. They’re the future, people that need to get the mythical 50-60 NRL games under their belts before they’re know the game. We want them to be great, and despite what Ethan Strange has shown in the trial games they just won’t be that right away. But cultivated properly over this year they could be instrumental in the future. As the Milk’s new NSW Cup Coach Brock Shepperd helpfully reminded us recently:

You’ve got to remember that a lot of these guys haven’t had a full season playing against men. Chevy and Ethan started last season in SG Ball, had a hanful of games in Flegg and then up to Cup. We definitely want them to get a taste of NRL for sure but to expect them to handle week-to-week NRL is probably a little unrealistic and unfair. We want to bring them along at the right pace. The good development clubs do that- they’re patient, they coach them well, and they know when they’re ready to step up to NRL

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Shepperd was a part of the team that put the current Panthers through the system so he knows a thing or two. It’s may sound more conservative than you want to hear but it’s at least clear the club has it’s eye beyond this season. That’s a good sign.

I don’t think this is a warning to not expect Ethan Strange this coming round but more a recognition that if he does it won’t necessarily be a permanent thing. Development is a bumpy road and the physicality of the top line will tire these players in a way that they haven’t previously experienced. In the NBA the long basketball season often wears out young players. It’s called the ‘rookie wall’ and refers to a phenomenon where the jump from 30 odd college games to an 82 game season drains the life out of new stars. The increase in physicality from SG Ball, Flegg and maybe even Cup is likely to do the same to the Raiders new generation.

It means that we can’t, and the Raiders won’t, expect consistency out of these players now. They need minutes in the top line for sure but that won’t come at the sacrifice of being best placed to succeed in those positions in the future. Strange may start in week one but I can almost guarantee he won’t play every game. Similarly Stewart will begin the year in Cup footy. That’s not a shot against him, just a recognition of the pathway to the promise land it’s a straight line. Shit chuck Morgan Smithies in this patch. Elliott Whitehead this week said he might play like Isaah Yeo. No pressure Morgan. Welcome to the NRL.

Where the Raiders can expect more consistency is the ‘next’ two generations of players along the development pathway. Hudson Young (97 games) Corey Horsburgh (82), Matt Timoko (62) and Jamal Fogarty (80) have all played more fifty games, and are theoretically entering their primes (Fog might be on the high of that, but only started playing first grade regularly at 27). These are the players that we’d expect to be at the centre of the Raiders success over the next few years, and if Canberra are going to have major ‘countable’ success (like wins) this season they’ll need to be a part of it. But as importantly their ascension to leadership roles will be critical, as they’ll be the elder statesmen when the younger generation reaches their 50-60 games.

It was exciting to see Fogarty mention Young as a future leader in the off-season. Horsburgh has taken leaps and bounds over the last 18 months. Our love for Matt Timoko is obvious (and watch out for another piece coming). Fogarty intrigues us though. He’s never been the ‘holder of the ring’ in the way he might be with the side this year. Last season when he had the ball in his fingers (and at his feet) good things happened for the Milk. Maybe that was luck and a few goal posts that did the work. Maybe there’s something more there. There’ll be more eyes on him this year (both off and on the field). Cooper Cronk has already suggested he needs to step up. I’m very interested as to whether he will.

The elder players are as reliable as old faithful. Papa has reportedly lost 8 kilograms this off-season in preparation for the season. Jordan Rapana has lost 5 of his own, and seemingly is about as sure about his retirement as we are (i.e. not entirely). Joe Tapine looked every bit the star he is in his brief hit-outs this off-season. Even Elliott Whitehead looked positively sprightly for someone who has played 8000 professional football games. These players can be relied on. Taps and Papa will make the middle sing. Smell will do whatever is needed in defence, and Rapa will be the madman we love and need to spice up our life. They may not be there when this team reaches it’s potential zenith but they’ll play their part now in putting them on the right path.

Put this all together and there’s a proper footy team. It may not be enough for us to be walking through fields of Elyisum with sun on our faces but it should be enough that prognostications about wooden-spoons and Canberra look as silly as they almost every year since 1982. But that’s all chat and speculation. Now we get to play the games. Hopefully they can get started proving everyone wrong.

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