The Canberra Raiders lost to the Brisbane Broncos 34-30 because they lost their discipline, their defensive effectiveness and their goddamn minds. In a game where no detail should have been spared, they tried to vibe their way to victory. They paid for it, not just in losing, not just in ending their faint finals chances, but also in letting down Josh Papalii. That man carried the Raiders for literal seasons. They couldn’t carry him for one match. He didn’t deserve this.
30 points should win you plenty of games. Leading by 14 entering the last quarter of a game should be enough. Creating multiple opportunities to score in the four minutes they were behind should have been sufficient. Instead, their execution and their lack of calm and cohesion shone through.
It was such a 2026 game. The Raiders were at their best playing through the middle. When they did manage an effective shift it was to get either Kaeo Weekes or Simi Sasagi outside the 3 man or the 2 man. When their discipline and defensive resolve dropped, the game collapsed in a mess, and they couldn’t recover, or find a moment of magic to stem the tide.
They were at their best playing through the middle because Owen Pattie continues to be their most effective creator. He scored a try, created another, and kicked a 40-20 that became a third. So often Canberra’s redzone attack looked directionless. The only exception was when Pattie had a plan. He wasn’t perfect – there were some early redzone sets where you might argue he did too much, but I’d rather that than the inconsistent and often disorganised mess outside him. More than once he rescued a redzone set that seemed to be going nowhere, and twice turned that into tries (one for himself, the other for Zac Hosking).
He did work well with the middles who were keen for the battle. Joe Tapine (21 for 192m, 60 post contact, five tackle breaks) was immense, clearly desperate to give his all for his best mate. Ata Mariota (14 for 121m, 45 post contact) too was effective, and his determination clear on the second try of the match which displayed not just his power, but how effective and agile he can be in space. Joe Roddy (97m) too impressed in 36 minutes across the middle of the game.
The periods of good football were driven by these men, along with Simi Sasagi and Matt Timoko’s work in yardage. That was the foundation, and then on the back of it the Raiders shifted best to their right. They created two tries in the first half simply getting Sasagi outside Deine Mariner, allowing him to step inside and flip an offload for Weekes.
The Broncos took that away in the second half by selling out on it, and Canberra couldn’t adjust. Their left side attack was as ineffective as it’s been this season. Katoni Staggs was on Ethan Strange at every opportunity, and while Timoko was a threat, all he can do is run because Jed Stuart is not. Ethan Sanders got caught so many times without getting to a kick when he should have, running it late in sets, or holding the ball so long that Strange had no space. It was not the best performance of either young half.
When the Raiders did get some space, Xavier Savage failed to finish off three real opportunities, getting taken into touch twice, and not beating his opposite one-and-one and with space. Given his lack of effectiveness in yardage (94m), it was a really disappointing game from the speedster. Twice he backed his strength, but whereas in previous seasons he offered surprising power alongside his pace, he’s approached contact like I approach conflict (here’s a hint, I’m sorry).
But while they struggled, 30 points should have been more than enough to handle this Broncos side. But in moments Canberra’s defensive effectiveness and effort wasn’t just bad, it was downright abysmal. They made some disastrous decisions in defence, appalling attempts at tackles, and couldn’t handle the Broncos anytime they got momentum in a set. Both tries that came while Canberra had an advantage saw the Broncos earn late-set set-restarts as middle defenders scrambled to slow the ruck.
It wasn’t always. Usually, the middle did a good job. Often the Broncos kicked from their 40, struggling to get sets moving that Haas didn’t move himself. But Canberra made errors, some unforgivable, and when they did, the Broncos punished them.
There are a lot of reasons for this, but I want to focus on the two most notable. Matty Nicholson at right backrow was as laterally agile as a chair. The Broncos first try came because he was tentative coming up to Ben Hunt and Xavier Willison got outside him. On the next tackle Owen Pattie at A-defender was more focused on Payne Haas (fairly), and Nicholson got beaten cold from dummy half by Billy Walters.
The next try the Broncos scored came because Ethan Sanders got beaten (by Billy effing Walters) and hit Ezra Mam on an inside line. Most backrowers are expected to fill that gap and clean up the mess. Zac Hosking does it repeatedly. Hudson Young does too. Nicholson could not. The fourth try of the Broncos night also involved Haas outracing Nicholson to the line. Again, it’s no shame in being outmuscled by Haas, or beaten. But Nicholson simply couldn’t move quick enough laterally to make an attempt on Haas.
This try also included the Raiders other defensive problem, when Jed Stuart dropped a difficult bomb, a turnover that created the broken-field space for Haas to run around Nicholson. Stuart had a barney. Teams are becoming more effective each week in exploiting his lack of athleticism, and Ben Hunt took pleasure in exposing that, bombing at him, chipping over him, and finally making him so terrified of the kick that he stayed out and provided zero inside shoulder help on the final try.
This all came after one of the most confusing defensive decisions for the Broncos third try when he zoomed in like someone hit the wrong button on the controller, doubling in on Katoni Staggs when Timoko was standing on top of him. The pass floated over his head and I’ve never been so confused as to what someone was reading in my life.
That’s all six tries, with six errors by two players. The club needs to work out what to do with both of these men. If they see Nicholson as a long-term backrower, then he needs to spend all offseason doing shuttle-runs because an elite backrower cannot be this slow in sideways movements. I think he can be. But that requires a clear edict from the top.
On Stuart, real questions need to be asked as to why he’s playing ahead of Sione Finau, not to mention Sav Tamale. He offers nothing in yardage (88 total metres) and has no speed to get outside defenses, allowing them to cheat in on Timoko and Strange. If he cannot make the right defensive reads or catch bombs, then there is no good reason to have him in NSW Cup first grade.
To be clear I’m not blaming these two for the loss. The problems they couldn’t solve started elsewhere. Jed Stuart’s inside shoulder discipline only mattered because Matty Timoko was beaten on the outside. He only got kicked over his head because the Raiders were struggling back after three middle defenders missed on Ben Hunt.
When Canberra lost control of the middle it created chaos. That started with poor contact in the trenches, something that was exploited even when the Broncos were down a man (seriously, who concedes two tries against twelve men?). And neither player would have been on the field, or in that position, if the season went the way it was meant to. But they were brutally exploited, and the impact on the game, the season, and Papalii’s celebration was enormous.
It’s frustrating because they all deserved better. This season has been an awful odyssey; a mash up of errors in trying circumstances, failing in crucial moments in ways that should keep people motivated all off-season. Precision and cohesion is built in November. Last November it wasn’t, evidently.
That Josh Papalii, bones ground to dust, hope extinguished, job finally done, walks off Bruce Stadium a loser is no shame on his legacy. Rather it’s an indictment of what Canberra have offered this year. In moments, for patches, things have worked. But when attention to detail and execution have been required, the output has not been consistent enough. Call them key moments, fifty-fifties. In this game, as this season, Canberra missed them. Couldn’t nail it when they needed to.
And that’s why they lost this game, why they’re out of the finals, and why they let down Josh Papalii. Papalii gave Canberra fifteen years of certainty. They couldn’t even give him eighty minutes of competence.
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