There’s no way around it. Canberra ended up exactly where they deserved to be.
This year promised so much. We entered with hope that the departure of Jamal Fogarty wouldn’t hold back a tide that perhaps rose early last year. We hoped that last year’s performance meant this year’s output would be similar, if not quite as bright. We held realistic hope for young players to make steps, and for older heads to keep standards at appropriate heights. Instead we got raw mediocrity.
On most measures they were middling. Only six teams conceded more points than them. Only seven teams scored fewer. On most expectations-measurement devices (like Pythagorean expectations) they were right where they were meant to be. Of first halves they won 9 games and were behind in 13. In second halves they ‘won’ eight and were behind in 13. This team that was as thoroughly and meekly mediocre as the tepid sun that ‘warmed’ the bodies watching them from the stands most afternoons.
But that doesn’t tell the story of a team that collapsed twice, rose in spurts, and never really found anything approaching a full game of football. It doesn’t explain how they failed. First to adapt to the obviously coming six-again-fest to start the season. Then how they failed to prepare their second-tier players to take over from an ageing, and injured, stars. Then how they failed to predict the exodus of those players and others.
This is a key finding. Canberra did not adjust, did not prepare and did not plan. We saw this when they came out of the blocks 1-5, flabbergasted that a change that Coach Stuart had called for – the expansion of the set restart – had predictably hypercharged the game. The Raiders were among the least disciplined sides early in the competition, unable to control the ruck in any way other than giving away penalties and extra sets.
Through the first fourteen rounds of the season, they gave away 17 more penalties than they received, which was second worst in the league. They combined this with the third worst error rate in the competition through the first five rounds of the season (both stats per the Rugby League Eye Test). This meant they put a weight of possession against them, which was a stress test that their defence didn’t pass.
Then came injuries. Not in breadth, but in depth. The Raiders backrow seemed so loaded coming into the season. Most had expected that it would play a dual role, one of being awesome, and two of providing cover for a set of middles that while good, weren’t as deep as they once were.
But every backrower had a significant injury. That had a dual impact of affecting their ability to have a functional edge defence, but also their ability to help out in the middle. Instead of Zac Hosking and Matty Nicholson being agile bench support, the Raiders were stealing Ata Mariota to the edge for cover. Then, hoo boy, it got messy. Daine Laurie and Jayden Brailey are not middles. But Canberra were forced to roll with them.
Joey Tapine and Ata Mariota were impressive, the latter increasingly so as he was given more starting opportunities. We are so grateful for Tapine – he’s the difference between a good prop rotation and a bad one, and we cannot afford to take that for granted. Zack Hosking was also excellent as a lock, and if not for injuries (both to him, and elsewhere), he would have made lock his own. Joe Roddy also shows a workrate and a utility that will be a big part of 2027.
But these players weren’t good enough to overcome bad discipline and injury. This was reinforced by poor organisational choices, some that predated the season. Canberra had no middles because two of them walked out the door at the end of last season. In the meantime none of the young players were ready to take a step up. Those players aren’t to blame, but losing the ‘bridge’ is on the club.
They didn’t have creativity at the ruck because it took until round 9 for Owen Pattie to get on the field, and round 16 before he was given starters minutes. Playing Jed Stuart ahead of other backs meant they never were able to offset weakness in the middle with big yardage from the backs. That Stuart played more games than Sav Tamale is a blight on the club, regardless of the reasoning that caused it.
Behind a side that was constantly fighting out of its own end, rarely winning control of the middle, and generally struggling to create momentum in sets, it’s a wonder the young spine thrived as much as it did. Kaeo Weekes warmed into the season, obviously happier playing mostly on the right at the back end of the year. Ethan Strange was excellent, a victim of lofty expectations and confused roles and responsibilities.
Both he and Kaeo Weekes tried to adapt their games to accommodate Ethan Sanders, when in the end that accommodation probably wasn’t needed. Strange needs to be able to play both sides of the ball, and this year he unequivocally proved he could. With more time and more opportunities to play as a key decision maker at second receiver, he’ll improve his already elite skill set.
A stronger argument for Strange being more focused around the left was how comfortable Kaeo Weekes was being on the right. Neither Kaeo nor Strange are traditional purveyors of the craft of their position, but their idiosyncrasies, in how they run, in how they attack the line, in how they connect on the edge can be complementary. When one of them breaks a tackle or finds a hole they flood the space with the energy of the bulls running at Pamplona.
Many of the criticisms of this young spine boils down to ‘they didn’t know what to do when the middle got dominated’. That’s because they’d never experienced it before at the Raiders. This spine was working that out as they went, and it was only in the last game, with Coby Black at the helm, that they really found a way to win a game where they couldn’t win the middle. It may have been a useful lesson. It may have been a blip. We won’t know until next year.
It does set them up with a set of questions that must be answered.
Who will be their new ‘bridge’ to the young middles like Vena Patuki-Case and Jesse Milin. The plan was Lipoi Hopoi, and perhaps Jaiyden Hunt, but if that’s your answer, you’re asking the wrong question.
How will he account for whatever brain fart is presented by Peter V’Landys as a vision for rugby league. He’s shown he has no regard for the game, and is willing to upend a century of tradition or dismantle a functioning system in order to satisfy his ego and no one else. The Raiders weren’t ready
That can mean changing rules and interpretations at the drop of a hat, between seasons, and within. This season was three-in-one. Four if you count what’s about to transpire in the finals – the pendulum will swing again). You need to have the personnel, but also the ideas, to bob and weave as fate and ego swing haymakers.
Fundamentally that’s the core of the problem. Getting the personnel is easy. It’s transactional, visible. We will know come round one next year whether they signed two professional props or not. But whether they’re ready for whatever madness V’Landys drops, or how the game evolves without his further intervention, is less clear.
Coach Stuart has shown – as happened this year – that his best work is done during the offseason. On the fly he can right a shipwreck, but he can’t mend the sails and get it moving again. At points we were worried the Raiders might win the wooden-spoon, but Stuart always had an answer to get them back to medicore.
Now he needs a solution that gets them back towards the top. If Canberra are improved in round one next year it will likely transfer to the entire year. But if they’re not, will Stuart – in year 14 as Raiders coach – suddenly learn the mastery of adjustment?
That’s a problem for next year. This year he didn’t. Canberra couldn’t fix their discipline. They couldn’t adjust to injury. They had no solution to get a middle going that had its weaponry limited. The young spine had no solution when circumstance made success impossible.
And that’s why Canberra ended up watching the finals, exactly where they deserved.
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