BY DAN

Anytime you can lock in depth outside back on a long-term deal, you just have got to take it…I guess.

Canberra are doing just that. Among a surprisingly quiet team-list Tuesday, the Canberra Times is reporting that the club is working towards a three-year extension for Jed Stuart.

That would keep him the top 30 through 2029. This is a really long deal. Canberra currently only have Kaeo Weekes extended that far. That’s a disproportionate vote of confidence in a solid footy player, but hardly the kind of in-demand talent you have to put that weight of resources into keeping. That’s the kind of deal you give to a talent like Weekes, or Strange, or Pattie. Where was Stuart going? Has Hull KR been sniffing around a little too much?

The actual cost isn’t really measured in cap space. In terms of year-to-year outlay I would expect Stuart to be a relative bargain. But the opportunity cost is substantial. That’s a top 30 spot you’re sacrificing. You need to be sure of what it might mean, both for the particular talent, and the potential loss of young outside backs that may offer more upside over the longer term. It’s quite a gamble in one sense.

Canberra’s inability to acquire fully formed stars through free agency means they have to make them. Choosing Jed over another option means they are burning a spin on the talent wheel, a chance to find a diamond in the rough for the assurance of having a solid brick or two.

That opportunity cost can be seen in real time, and will have impacts for players in the top 30, and outside. It cements in my mind that Michael Asomua’s time at the club will end with the expiration of his contract at the end of this season. Difficult decisions will need to be made about top 30 spots for Mark Tuialli, Kain Anderson, and Saxon Innes in the coming years. And this will be complicated by Stuart’s presence. Are you prepared to bet on Stuart over them? Canberra might be doing that.

If the length makes it a gamble, Stuart’s relative solidity makes it less of one. He is a fine footy player. He’s useful depth for the outside backs, offering certainty and a raised floor. He’s not really fast. He’s not really strong. He’s pretty good at taking bombs, though not an otherworldly talent. But he’s no slouch in any of those facets, and his ball-skills are better than most wingers need.

As a replacement winger, as he’ll do for Xavier Savage this weekend, a first or second drop at other times, he’s adequate. At the risk of paraphrasing Julia Roberts, while he doesn’t make us laugh, he also doesn’t make us cry. And right now that is something we could all desperately use.

But you don’t win premierships with ‘OK’. Great teams need great players. While no one’s development is certain, choosing Jed means one less chance to see if one of these players makes it in first grade. That’s not a criticism, just a statement of fact.

Leaning this heavily into Jed Stuart is something (hopefully) done with eyes wide open. He’s a good football player. Not great. He may be the perfect balance to a roster full of rocks and diamonds. That’s fine; perhaps you might even consider it an appropriate diversification of risk. Every team needs stability. The Raiders are thirsting for it right now.

But it comes with a cost.

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