Tag: adelaide

BY DAN

Anytime you can lock in depth outside back on a long-term deal, you just have got to take it…I guess.

Canberra are doing just that. Among a surprisingly quiet team-list Tuesday, the Canberra Times is reporting that the club is working towards a three-year extension for Jed Stuart.

That would keep him the top 30 through 2029. This is a really long deal. Canberra currently only have Kaeo Weekes extended that far. That’s a disproportionate vote of confidence in a solid footy player, but hardly the kind of in-demand talent you have to put that weight of resources into keeping. That’s the kind of deal you give to a talent like Weekes, or Strange, or Pattie. Where was Stuart going? Has Hull KR been sniffing around a little too much?

The actual cost isn’t really measured in cap space. In terms of year-to-year outlay I would expect Stuart to be a relative bargain. But the opportunity cost is substantial. That’s a top 30 spot you’re sacrificing. You need to be sure of what it might mean, both for the particular talent, and the potential loss of young outside backs that may offer more upside over the longer term. It’s quite a gamble in one sense.

Canberra’s inability to acquire fully formed stars through free agency means they have to make them. Choosing Jed over another option means they are burning a spin on the talent wheel, a chance to find a diamond in the rough for the assurance of having a solid brick or two.

That opportunity cost can be seen in real time, and will have impacts for players in the top 30, and outside. It cements in my mind that Michael Asomua’s time at the club will end with the expiration of his contract at the end of this season. Difficult decisions will need to be made about top 30 spots for Mark Tuialli, Kain Anderson, and Saxon Innes in the coming years. And this will be complicated by Stuart’s presence. Are you prepared to bet on Stuart over them? Canberra might be doing that.

If the length makes it a gamble, Stuart’s relative solidity makes it less of one. He is a fine footy player. He’s useful depth for the outside backs, offering certainty and a raised floor. He’s not really fast. He’s not really strong. He’s pretty good at taking bombs, though not an otherworldly talent. But he’s no slouch in any of those facets, and his ball-skills are better than most wingers need.

As a replacement winger, as he’ll do for Xavier Savage this weekend, a first or second drop at other times, he’s adequate. At the risk of paraphrasing Julia Roberts, while he doesn’t make us laugh, he also doesn’t make us cry. And right now that is something we could all desperately use.

But you don’t win premierships with ‘OK’. Great teams need great players. While no one’s development is certain, choosing Jed means one less chance to see if one of these players makes it in first grade. That’s not a criticism, just a statement of fact.

Leaning this heavily into Jed Stuart is something (hopefully) done with eyes wide open. He’s a good football player. Not great. He may be the perfect balance to a roster full of rocks and diamonds. That’s fine; perhaps you might even consider it an appropriate diversification of risk. Every team needs stability. The Raiders are thirsting for it right now.

But it comes with a cost.

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BY DAN

One outcome of Friday’s wet fart of a game was that the Raiders effectively confirmed their starting right centre was no longer Matt Timoko. At least for now.

Matty Timoko had held the position for the best part of four years, and generally looked pretty handy doing it. A damaging, if under-utilised, runner, his work in exit sets was, and remains, a criminally underrated aspect of his game. His passing has always been great, for New Zealand at least, even if he’s never had many opportunities to show it for Canberra.

Of course he was the face of the defensive frailty that hamstrung the team in 2025, and that combined with an injury that kept him out of the last month of the preseason, put his role as starting right centre in jeopardy.

That was all Simi Sasagi needed. In the first two rounds he has gone full circle. He joined the Raiders as a second-row project – a centre that might be able to make the move at a club in desperate need of post-Smelly help. Now he’s back at his home in the centres, having eventually proven himself capable of handling all positions across the backrow.

In both games he’s been a shining spot despite the Milk’s inconsistent performance. He’s looked assured in defence, and a weapon in attack, combining well with Ethan Strange on the right. He’s averaged 160 metres and 6.5 tackle breaks across the two games, and looks to have taken hold of the spot for the time being.

But at the end of the blowout against the Warriors, a subtle shift in strategy may indicate that plan is being usurped by matters beyond Sasagi’s or Timoko’s control.

Canberra found middle trucking difficult, losing control of the middle over the game. This was driven by poor contact and discipline in defence, a problem that saw Sasagi shifted from right centre to middle to solve.

That problem is a real one for the Milk, as we noted yesterday. Josh Papalii’s return will stabilise their ability to control the ruck. But Coach Stuart may see it as such a problem it requires him to double down. That would mean bringing Sasagi’s workrate and energy to the ruck, and allowing Timoko back into his old space.

How likely this is will he determined by how real you see the problem in the middle. If you’re of the belief that it will get solved with the return of Big Papa, then the addition isn’t necessary. Timoko can sit at the end of the 19, only to be deployed if a back falls foul of the injury gods. After all, you’ve got a Stephen Crichton to corral. You need your best defender.

If you believe it’s critical, then build with Papa and Simi. In Vlandoball keeping up in the middle is all that matters. Perhaps sending more resources to win the middle is what you need. After all, if you don’t win the middle then it won’t matter who’s defending at right edge; no one can stop Stephen Crichton with acres of space.

My guess is Stick goes halfway, keeping Simi-to-lock up his sleeve, something to deploy if needed late in the game. It’s a short turnaround, and Ricardo Stuart will always choose to dance with what brung him if he can.

He’ll need to manage his bench well then; Timoko would likely be behind Brailey, Mariota, Smithies and Hosking in that scenario. He’ll also sacrifice any ability to build connection between ‘Mokes and Strange. Remember, the shift of Ethan was meant to reveal just how effective Timoko could be in defence. It’s hard to do that fifteen minutes at a time, especially when you’ve spent your whole career playing 80 minutes at a time.

It’s times like this we don’t envy Stuart. Canberra’s mixed start to the season is making these decisions feel heavier than ever before. Stick’s got options, headaches, and decades of pain and shadows to jump at. Maybe he’s moving to solve a problem. Maybe he’s picking his best 17/19. Maybe it’s chaos. How would I know, I’m just three kids in an overcoat trying to punch out a vibe.

What’s clear is this: the right centre spot is up for grabs, the middle needs help, and the Raiders season is already facing more questions than Ashton Kutcher trying to order some drive-thru (And then?). Stuart’s got problems and solutions galore. Here’s hoping they’re the right ones.

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BY DAN

If there’s a position that the Canberra Raiders can withstand a depth chart challenge, it’s the back row.

Matty Nicholson left the trial game after ten minutes on Saturday with a shoulder subluxation, which for those of us whose Latin is merda, means he partially dislocated his shoulder. According to the Canberra Times, the medical staff still found ‘good strength’ in the shoulder, and there’s hope he will still be ‘ok’.

What ‘ok’ means isn’t clear at this stage. A squiz at reputable medical sources (i.e. not ChatGPT) suggests a wide variety of outcomes, from two weeks for minor subluxations to four months and beyond to more severe dislocation. The risk of re-injury is not insignificant, suggesting conservatism with return times is something that should be adopted here.

Before we get too forlorn, we’d note that the club tends to lean ‘long’ in their publicly announced times for injury absence. If there’s optimism from the training staff, it’s a good sign the injury is not at the severe end of the range. Here’s hoping.

Still, it’s a cruel blow for Nicholson. He’s already had to get over a three-month layoff last season after a major injury to his syndesmosis and a fracture to his fibula. When he returned he looked underdone, and in desperate need of an off-season. Now he’s got that, he’s suffered another set back. It must be frustrating.

The club will be able to withstand the absence. If there’s one position they’ve got plenty of depth at right now, it’s backrow. If Nicholson isn’t ready to go in round one, I’d be interested in which of the three options they choose to deploy.

Zac Hosking filled the role last year, and does it well. The club started him in the middle in the trial, suggesting they want to reprise his role from last year of bench lightning through the middle. Similarly, Simi Sasagi has been used in the role in the past, but the club has seemed keen on using him as a centre this off-season – perhaps we’ll see how serious that is in the round one team list. Noah Martin has been a standout in the trial matches, and it’d be interesting to see if he’s ready to go at the top level.

To me this comes down to how ready the club thinks Noah Martin is, and how keen they are to maintain the Hosking/Sasagi/Mariota bench mob. That unit was devastating in the first half of last season, allowing the Milk to play with a rapidity through the middle forty in which they’d historically dropped off the pace. Martin has impressed, and it’s clear he needs a role – any role – in the top grade. He’s so far beyond Cup footy that, like Owen Pattie, it feels a waste of his time and potentially detrimental to his development. You can only learn so much running through defensive contact like it was finishing line tape.

Given how slow the whole side looked in the trial on the weekend, maintaining flexibility in deploying Hosking and Sasagi as relief suddenly feels more important. An alternative approach is to go hybrid: a twist in which one of Hosking or Sasagi starts, Martin replaces them, and the former moves to the middle. It wouldn’t be the first time they’d adopted that approach.

It’s a small challenge, one that the club can handle, and that Nicholson, while frustrated, shouldn’t be rush. The Raiders have the luxury of building for later in the season. After their performance in the trial there a bigger problems to fix in the coming weeks to ready for round one.

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BY DAN

Winning in the NRL is built on more than just your best 17 being better than the other team’s. Over a long NRL season that 17 will be tested, by injury, form, and representative football. You need a full 30 capable of fighting the good fight. Canberra have spent the last few years not just building a quality side, but for the first time in years, one sustainable for a whole season.

It goes beyond the first grade squad. For every Chevy Stewart there’s an Ethan Alaia, a Jalen Afamasaga for every Daine Laurie. Is Manaia Waitere just tomorrow’s Sione Finau. It’s really exciting for the long term, but for more immediate, and selfish purposes, it provides a really important ballast which could support Canberra’s hopes and dreams in 2026.

That’s a new thing for Canberra. In recent years we’ve wringed our hands at every injury. Squinting at Jed Stuart, or Danny Levi, or Jordan Martin, and hoping they could do a job rather than be excited for them to finally get the opportunity. But this season the depth is a reason to be optimistic.

Fullback: Chevy Stewart

If you have been reading these pages a while, you’ll know I didn’t expect Chevy to still be in town. There’s simply too much talent to be wasted playing Cup footy. First grade is where he’ll be at some point in the next 24 months, and with Kaeo Weekes at the club, you can understand if he moved on. That was complicated by an off-season incident which has since been resolved, but may have played a role in him sitting still for 2026.

From an outside view it’s always hard to tell how he’s handling the lack of professional progress, but all indications are good. He spent a chunk of time at the end of 2025 working with famed sprint coach Roger Fabri to garner a yard of pace. He’s seemed to approach the 2026 pre-season with the kind of effort and professionalism you’d hope for. It points to good things for the young man.

For the Milk, he’s an intriguing insurance policy in 2026. Daine Laurie may be used here too, but Stewart has been in the system longer, and will be playing fullback in the Cup footy team. My guess is if something unforeseen happens, he’ll be first in line.

Outside backs: Sione Finau

We’ve already written about how Sione is our secret weapon this year. After a season when injury meant Jed Stuart stepping up, or Simi Sasagi playing out of position (at least, out of the one we want him to play), Finau is not just first grade quality, but also potentially a weapon at that level. He has speed to burn and a workrate reminiscent of his mate Savelio Tamale. In addition he has the capability to play centre and wing, creating competition at all spots across the backline. Molto bene!

This gives the Raiders not just the depth needed to cover for injuries, but also an ability to cover for form issues, and internal pressure across the backline to perform. Given some genius predicted Sav Tamale to push for Origin duties sooner rather than later, it’s important coverage for those duties too.

A further thing to note: Matt Timoko recently spoke to the media about how many players had been cycling through backline positions in pre-season as part of Stuart’s competition philosophy. One name that stood out was Saxon Innes. When Canberra signed the Brisbane fullback last year, he looked like a long‑term project. Maybe he’s closer than we thought.

Running half: Daine Laurie

In 2026 the Raiders will be asking more of Ethan Strange. Given how important he already was in 2025, that’s remarkable. He seems to be made of iron, and we hope he never even gets so much as a scratch on his body, but as we cruelly learned in the semi final against the Sharks last season, the Raiders need to a plan B.

Arguably Daine Laurie is the least ‘certain’ of Canberra’s back ups. Laurie isn’t the defensive menace that Strange is, and he’s not in possession the power or brilliance, but he’s no slouch in talent that can shift a game in a moment. It’s an improvement on last year when it was Simi being asked to fulfil an impossible task on game day. I wouldn’t want him to be a permanent six (or one, if he gets a role there too), but for a game or two, he’ll suffice.

Organising half: Coby Black

Ethan Sanders has the job, but it would take a brave person to say that he’s a certain star. That’s not how it works for young halves. As Coach Stuart has shown in recent years, he believes the physical demand on rookies in first grade is so substantial that even a truck masquerading as a human like Ethan Strange needs a break as the year goes on. So even if Sanders is good from the get-go, I would expect to see the highly talented Coby Black in first grade at some point throughout the year.

That has been complicated by Black’s nerve injury at the end of 2025. As we covered here, it’s not clear what his season start will look like, and when he’ll be ready for contact again. Given his age and ongoing physical development it would be unwise for the Milk to push him to play early. Hopefully he gets back onto the park when he’s ready and starts putting in work in Cup footy. He’ll be needed at some point.

Backrower: Noah Martin

In truth in another era of this side we’d be demanding he play first grade every week. He’s a damaging runner, loping through defensive lines like a Viking into the enemy. He’s physically ready, too good for NSW Cup, and already has a relationship with Ethan Sanders that was about 70 per cent of the Cup team’s attack in 2025.

Unfortunately for Noah (but fortunately for us), he’s about number five on the depth chart of backrowers and middles (which he can also cover). If someone gets injured at any forward position outside of rake, he’s most likely pushing for a first-grade spot. As it is he’ll be watching first grade more often than not.

But it means the Raiders are ready for anything. For Hudson Young to play Origin football. For Zac Hosking to get a break so he doesn’t wear himself down. For Matty Nicholson to take his time to get ready for first grade. For Simi Sasagi to be deployed in some other position (maybe he can be a coach too? He’ll end up doing everything else).

Hooker: Jayden Brailey

In the recent past we’ve noted the possibility of Brailey to get a bigger role this year than we’d hoped or anticipated. We won’t know for a while if that will happen, but with him as the third hooker (and Shaun Packer as the fourth), Canberra enter the season with remarkable depth at one of the most important positions on the park.

Brailey offers a lot – mostly certainty, if his body is right. He’ll support the young halves to get to the right spots on the field. He’ll make his tackles, and give good services to the middles. He won’t let anyone down. Having him at first drop means that for the first time since Liva Havili was on the team, the Milk will have three first-grade capable rakes on the roster.

Middles: Vena Patuki-Case Jake Clydesdale

Canberra don’t really need middle depth. Morgan Smithies gives them bulk at the spot. Simi Sasagi gives them fire and flexibility at 13. Tom Starling and Owen Pattie might play minutes alongside each other. Jayden Brailey has taken spot minutes at 13 in recent years. Noah Martin can cover the spot and has done for the Raiders. Myles Martin is physically ready given the opportunity. In short, their depth at the position should have one eye on the future.

Vena Patuki-Case was in the top 30 last season, and started to find his feet in Cup on his trail back from serious injury. Jake Clydsdale will be elevated for this season, the club seeing a future in the giant frame that supports his muscle. Neither should play first grade this season, but seasons after that? Well, maybe.

Canberra’s plans over the coming years aim high. They can’t do that without reinforcements, be it within the season or into the future. The depth outlined above positions them well to sustain growth, and manage the bumps and bruises that come with it. This has been a roster building quietly in one direction. 2026 will test whether that vision pays off.

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BY DAN

Canberra are on top of the ladder but not the world.

It’s been a rough two weeks. Hard fought victories over the Tigers and the Knights have propelled them to the top of the ladder, but not to the top of their performance. It’s something admitted by Coach Stuart in his post game comments after Friday.

I’ll take any win but in the last 15-20 minutes, we weren’t the team that we had to be. We played to the scoreboard and had three bard errors…That’s not good enough. We’ve got to build on that. It’s important for the boys to hear it, because it’s not good enough going into the back end of the season.

As we’ve noted recently there’s work to do. None of it is major, or structural. But rather it seems to be one of energy and personnel. Injuries have come to players that performed key functions. No Tamale. No Nicholson. Joe Tapine has a sideways finger. Well, more the wrong kind of sideways. NRL Physio says no fracture and he’s good to go. I hope he’ll be healthy come Saturday.

Now Origin has come hunting too, removing Hudson Young and now reportedly Josh Papalii for game three. For Hudson it was caked into expectations, recognition of what he’s achieved this year on both for club and state. He was one of NSW’s best in game two. I hope he has a similarly effective outing in game three.

For Papalii we’re ecstatic. He’s been excellent this year, and thoroughly deserves his spot. A player like him that can bend the Blues’ line is exactly what Queensland need. It’s a nice little bookend for his career too. His last season in the NRL will also involve recognition he was still throwing a fast ball with good heat. One last chance to deliver on the biggest stage. I hope Billy uses him more than he did last time he had Josh at the top level.

I’m sure it’s confusing for Corey Horsburgh. He’s been on the fringes of Origin selection (well, he should have been selected) and has only been exemplary in club footy. 190 plus metres on Friday was just the latest example, and should have been enough to propel him into the side, if an opportunity came up. One apparently has, and it’s gone to his team-mate. Rough. If I’m Corey I’m trying to work out what I’ve done to Billy. But at least the Canberra will have Red.

That’s important because Queensland’s gain in Papa has made the job harder for the Raiders. They’ve notably been less dominant through the middle forty of games recently. When they could roll out a bench of Ata, Papa and Zac (or Simi) they were able to change the pace of games. Now they’re just holding on. No Papa, no Huddo, and maybe no Joe will be a significant strain on resources.

They’ll likely be starting most of the aforementioned pace-changing bench. The most obvious outcome is that Morgan Smithies starts for Papa, and we pray Tapine’s finger is just a dislocation and not a fracture. Noah Martin will presumably stay on the bench and get an elongated opportunity to prove his capabilities. Last Friday’s 18th man Trey Mooney is also likely to get another shot in first grade as a replacement for Papa in the 17. If Tapine’s finger renders him unable to play then Pasami Saulo was the best performed middle in NSW Cup on the weekend. It’s next man up stuff but it puts a strain on Canberra’s strength.

It’s a much more conventional 17, particularly if the Raiders continue to only use Noah Martin in the middle while he gets used to first grade. A rake and three middles on the bench is honest, but it lends itself to a far more ‘grindy’ game plan than Canberra used for this year (up until the last two weeks).

The pressure on Horsburgh to perform, particularly if Tapine is absent, will be substantial. Instead of the Origin field, Red’s redemption may have to come on the field on Saturday, as the leader of a pack sapped of its top line talent and experience. I hope Jamal Fogarty lifts too. His frankly artistic 40-20 on Friday was his best kick in weeks, and I would love to see him flip the field regularly to support the depleted middle. If there’s a silver lining here it’s that the insult to Corey and injection of new and underused players should help address any of the energy or complacency that may have plagued Canberra in recent times.

However it’s unequivocally another challenge. The Raiders have been remarkable in overcoming them this year. Without Hudson, Papa, Tamale, Nicholson, and perhaps Tapine, it’s one of their toughest yet. But that’s what good teams do at Origin time. They find a way.

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