BY DAN

Hit the alarm, the Canberra Raiders have landed a big one. 

Coby Black is joining the Raiders from 2027 (and potentially earlier?). For how long and for what purposes is yet to be revealed (update: two year deal according to the Canberra Times), but the Courier Mail reported today that Black told his teammates he’s heading to Canberra. At this stage he’s not joining the club until 2027 and details are still being determined, but that could always change. Rugby league!

Black, if you didn’t already know, was the highly touted prospect that fell afoul of the Broncos chase of Jonah Pezet. Previously the prodigy had been the expected ‘next’ halfback at the Broncos until the club decided to take bet on Pezet’s greater first grade experience. He’s been praised six ways from Sunday as a player with all the skills and in the limited amount we’ve seen of him there’s everything to like. The Broncos don’t keep people in their system for fun, and shifting focus to Pezet says more about their timeline than it does about Black’s ability.

He’s got creativity, a great kicking game both in long and short options, and the leadership and football smarts you’d expect from a player with his plaudits. He looks as comfortable taking the ball to the line as he is throwing a cut out ball. He’s not quite first-grade ready yet, still learning the craft of game management, but with a full Q Cup season already behind him, he’s not far off. Everything about him, both on the field and in the commentariat has screamed ‘next big thing’. A week or so ago Madge Maguire was still calling him the future. Well, he didn’t say whose future. 

This is a massive deal for the Raiders. It is a validation of what they’ve built through their youth movement, a recognition that they have put together an appealing core packed with talent. Shit, a player that literally could have chosen any other club in the competition chose the Milk. Is it destination Canberra? Not quite, but the Milk are yet again recruiting smartly within this paradigm of acquiring young talent.

There is a question as to what happens with Ethan Sanders. It does raise red flags about the club’s commitment to him. For the second time in as many months the Raiders have gone looking for competition for Sanders, suggesting that the hype in these pages hasn’t been matched in Raiders HQ. Given Black won’t be joining the club until 2027 – at this stage – the former Eel will still get first shot as foretold by Ricky Stuart this week. With twelve months and two years of experience head start, he still may be the choice. But competition is coming. We’ve said before that Sticky’s usually a decent judge of who’s got the right stuff. We’ll cover our eyes and hope he’s right here too.  

It’s not foolproof. Canberra have currently got an incredible hit rate when it comes to turning prodigies into Pavarottis, but even in the best scenarios there’s a miss for every hit. Spine players, and halfbacks in particular, are never a certain thing, as the Raiders are all too aware. But with Sanders and Black, the Raiders have a potential coming out their ears and two bites at the proverbial to make sure it works out.

Questions remain around the finer details like length, value, and timing. Given the commitment, you’d expect it to be a long-term deal. Canberra will likely push to bring him in earlier if they can. The Broncos have no shortage of halves (Reynolds, Hunt, Mam, Duffy), so a deal might be possible, and the Raiders probably know it. It would make their decision to let Adam Cook walk make a lot more sense.

It’s a complication for sure. The ease of signing a backup for Sanders would have been neater and allowed us to progress in the knowledge of a cleaner, if not better plan. Instead the Raiders have opted for talent and complexity, upside over fit, banking on their ability to not only turn talent into performance, but also pick which of Sanders or Black will take them the furthest.

Our read had always been that Ethan Sanders had all the potential in the world. People smarter than us have said that and far more about Black over the years. That the Milk have somehow become the destination of this talent is a fascinating coup and could sustain them for longer than this current cycle. Whether Sanders or Black ends up driving the bus doesn’t matter. What matters is that Canberra as a place worth steering. That’s a story we couldn’t have written a few years ago.

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