What do you do when you meet chaos? What’s it like to look at the face of a group of men that have nothing to lose?
The Wests Tigers are in a world of organisational pain right now. They’ve lost five in a row. Won two of the eleven games since they beat the Raiders in round 8. Their best player this season has said, or been told, he won’t play this weekend because the coach wanted to play him at lock, instead of lead half, for some bizarre reason. They’ve outsourced their culture to a person with not so much as a foot out the door, as a pinky still in. That player is joining the French Foreign Legion Parramatta Eels next year for a season before heading to Papua New Guinea. Or Cairns.
Is that everything? I think that’s everything.
Canberra have to win. To keep their season alive. For a chance to redeem some pride from round eight. They simply cannot afford to lose, for any reason. This is a measure of integrity. The opposition are dying in front of your eyes. Any sign that you’re better than them will be met with submission. Any proof that you’re willing to play disciplined footy and earn a victory, not cheapskate your way to free points, will be met with a welcome mat and a pair of slippers. Come in, make yourself at home. You’ve earned it.
Will they earn it? The ‘how’ will be the thing. Presuming Coach Stuart is telling us the truth in his team list, the key question is how they can maintain the defensive rage, and the agility and dynamism through the middle third, with the personnel they have.
No Owen Pattie and Zac Hosking at 9 and 13 is huge. Pattie has brought a threat to the ruck which has opened up space and time for Ethan Sanders.
Hosking has turned a compliant middle defence into something more robust, and while he’ll be effective on the edge, it means that the Raiders will rely on Corey Horsburgh and Morgan Smithies to do that job, and as a pair they haven’t managed the task this year.
This means more pressure on other players to bridge the gap. Everyone in the middle rotation not named Joe Tapine has to find a way to control the powerful Tigers’ middle. The edge defenders need to remove all space for Jarome Luai to do that dancing routine. The right edge defence cannot be fustigated by Samuela Fainu, the way he’s done literally every time we’ve played him.
But as big a worry is this: how do you defeat a team that has been written off? By the media. By the fans. Even by people on their team. There’s not a person on earth tipping the Tigers and that makes me nervous.
Chaos loses to discipline. Canberra can win if they get their Rudyard Kipling on and keep their heads when all about them people are losing theirs. Punch through the middle third. Don’t turn it into a fleet and fancy game where they shift side to side in search of easy access. Kick well, defend stoutly.
They can win that way because it suits their personnel. They can win that way because if they win the middle, it will demoralize an already broken group. Then they can have fun. But not before.
I don’t think this is going to be the Saturday stroll that it is being presented as. Nothing has been easy for the Milk this year. Why would this be? This is two teams who have disappointed this season. Canberra just started their mess earlier. The Tigers later but are no less accustomed to the dark.
Canberra’s season is on the line in this game. Win and stay alive. Lose and any pretense is gone. Chaos only wins if you buy into the mess. The Tigers have done that recently. The Raiders have to avoid the same fate.
In conclusion
Raiders by a dream.
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