BY DAN

It’s been two weeks since the Mole announced that Canberra had won Leo’s heart, and yet we’re still waiting for confirmation. Did we blow our *ahems* prematurely or will Leo be the satisfaction and salvation Raiders fans desire? Have the Roosters, the Dogs or some other group of heathens jumped in to steal our new toy?

Before we get start let’s get to some important caveats. It seems like no one knows anything and nothing is happening. We certaintly don’t have access to any vibes coming from the club, the player or anyone associated with discussions. We’ve seen social media posts guaranteeing him coming to the Raiders, the Dogs, and staying at the Knights. The only (semi) legitimate piece of information is that the Mole has said the deal is done, and that he is coming to Canberra.

Of course that might change, but rumours are just that. Without any new actual reporting then we still think this position holds. So why no announcement then? Why are we now in the year of our Mal 2025 without confirmation in either direction?

Let’s start with a couple of obvious factors. Contracts take time to finalise. They require lawyers for the club, the player, and the NRL to all be on the same page. They need fine tooth combs, agreement on minor clauses, and generally a whole bunch of work to be done. This progresses relatively seamlessly when all parties are focused and trying to resolve the matter as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately, as you may be aware, now is not a time things happen quickly. Christmas is a time for family. For love. For spending time listening to your kids watch some weird Youtuber’s Minecraft videos while you check if the thing on your stomach is left over ham through the power of taste. It is not a time for contract finalisation. All it takes is one cog in the process to be prioritise something else over our desire for news and there will be a hold up.

Things just take longer this time of year, and there’s multiple places the process can break down before we hear about it. Maybe Leo is happy with the contract but is on holidays. Maybe Leo’s agents paperwork guy is two days into a bender and hasn’t turned up to work (that’s an entirely hypothetical scenario – I am not intending to throw a random admin person under the bus). Maybe the deal is signed, sealed and delivered (he’s ours!) but the NRL HQ is just shut for the Christmas break. Shit even the journos, or public relations professionals that feed them announcements, are probably knee deep in beer cans and self-loathing right now. You get the picture.

This is only more complicated by the tremendous lead time built into the NRL free agency period. This means that people sign (or agree) with a new club in December, but they won’t join the club for twelve months. Often this leads to discussions about potentially moving earlier. That negotiation takes on many different aspects. This includes a desire for player swaps that can only be met if players are interested in the move (i.e. there’s no NBA/NFL style trade), necessitating even further negotiations that can be delayed by above factors.

Canberra are no doubt trying to get Thompson to come as soon as possible. Getting Leo to come in ’25 means the clubs agreeing on a player, the player agreeing to move to Newy, and a deal with the new player being finalised for ’25 and presumably at least ’26. Now we’re back at square one of trying to finalise deals during the Christmas period.

This of course would be considered a Canberra-centric assessment of the issue. Your fear that Leo T has been snapped up like the Sombreros, the Desperados (the Dragons), or the Perritos (i’m not sure why we’re doing Spanish but roll with it) is valid, but it is only that. As we said at the top there’s no evidence of anything other than the standard Christmas processing times. We don’t even have competing rumours. A wise man once said ‘don’t let paranoia place bets for you’. Possibility doesn’t mean likelihood. Evidence, though sparse, is pointing in one direction.

So right there’s nothing to panic or celebrate. We remain exactly where we were two weeks ago before we all decided to get fat and watch incessant amounts of cricket. Tomorrow the real world will start it’s slow grind back into existence and we’ll have plenty of time to find out how life is going.

Let’s hope that includes an announcement. Soon.

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