BY DAN

Hohepa Puru is leaving. Xavier Savage is extending. Adam Cook is staying. Danny Walker appears not to be coming. Danny Levi and Emre Guler….persist? The Canberra top 30 list is getting full, and we’re only a few weeks into free agency.

This means Canberra’s pathways are becoming both clearer and narrower. A set list of 25 players now appears to be 27, plus Danny Levi and Emre Guler. You might recall Levi was allowed to seek other opportunities. He came back as empty handed as a young gadabout leaving Mooseheads alone. At least he has the succor of the last year of his deal with the Milk (a kebab in this analogy) to tide him through the night. Emre has asked for a compassionate release to return to Sydney. Apparently the Bunnies are the place he’ll go (something suggested by noted investigative journalist Bryan Fletcher). That requires him being let go. So far the Raiders haven’t come to the party.

I would bank on at least one, if not both, of these players being at the club next year. Levi won’t leave unless he has another NRL offer. While one wasn’t in the offering in the off-season, that might change with the passage of time. All it takes is an injury to a starting rake to get an injury for a club to come knocking. I’m obviously not Danny Levi’s number one fan, but he’s good enough to be on an NRL roster. A one-year deal with an option for a second would get it done. I would assume that him moving would be met with a commensurate elevation of Owen Pattie to the top 30. I don’t think they’ll swap him out for another high level rake. If someone is coming to get Levi its because there won’t be other high level rakes to get.

For his part Guler seems like a straight trade. If the Raiders can get the player they want on the market, the Guler becomes the disposable party. No point giving up NRL talent if you’re not sure you’re going to get some more. Leo Thompson is the name they were chasing but that doesn’t feel likely. My guess is Leo stays in Newy, particularly now that they got rid of one of the Saifitis. Or both. Twins man, its difficult. High leverage Raider Raising basically. Which means the Raiders will likely have one, plus Levi/Guler potential swaps still to fill. Call it one and two halves, which equals two but I prefer the distinction of change not being guaranteed.

They have obvious needs. A starting hooker and outside back depth are the most obvious spots. As we’ve said before we’re not entirely sure how they fill those. The dummy half market is has tighter supply than 1970s petroleum. You can get substitutes (is Corey Paix is a Bundy drinkers Danny Levi. Or is Danny Levi a L&P drinkers Corey Paix? No matter). I’ll hold out hope for Danny Walker but the most likely outcome is an addition for depth.

In terms of other options like outside backs there doesn’t appear to be much on the market. It’s been a long time since the Raiders pulled Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Bailey Simonnson and Seb Kris from near thin air in the lead up to 2019. So it’s not so much looking for names that matters. But at the moment their recruitment focus has felt much more fringe Cup player, than fringe first grader.

Regardless what’s interesting to me is the phases. The Milk appear to have started internally. Players have left. We’ve done our job (hopefully) in protecting our own talent first. Job one appears to be done. This doesn’t appear to have been deliberate. I’m sure the Raiders will have been keen to get into free agency, but external recruitment is by its nature slower. Good players attract interest, and want to talk to more places. Less storied players have to wait for good players to fill up top 30 vacancies.

But for Canberra it’s an even slower process. Because Canberra is Canberra and the Raiders are the Raiders. The places Canberra looks (like England) come with their own pesky peccadillos that tend to make for lengthy discussions (I keep telling myself to give up on Danny Walker but I’m the Lloyd Christmas of this motherfucker). Finalising deals in the open market is also made more complex by the fact the Dragons and Bulldogs compete for free agents like they’re desperate bachelors just before the ugly lights come on. If there’s someone out there worth getting there’s going to be competition.

That means time. Given it’s still mid November there’s no shortage of that. It’s worth remembering that while Kaeo came in September and Smithies in October, Zac Hosking wasn’t until January. The Raiders were still being linked to players well into February and beyond (did you know that Luciano Leilua signed with the Dragons?). What I’m saying is maybe we should get used to waiting.

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