BY DAN

In the last few weeks the Canberra Raiders have lost their starting fullback, halfback, key edge forward ensconced in the beginnings of a breakout year and an Origin forward to injury. They just got pummelled by last year’s grand finalist, face the first placed team next week and follow that up with the current fifth played team. This is before any one of the aforementioned critical players will return to the field after the bye that follows.

Seems a little dark for me.

Let’s be honest for a second. This could be a tough couple of weeks. It’d had all looked so good so recently. Now Canberra are sporting a bloody nose and claret all over their proverbial jumper. But bloodied and bruised isn’t so much a problem as a preferred starting point for Sticky’s Raiders teams. ‘No one believes in us’ isn’t a statement as much as an invitation. Think Broncos this time last year. Melbourne in Melbourne (2022 or 2019? Qualifying final or ‘Once Upon a Time in Melbourne? It’s closer than you think). In Canberra it only gets dark so we can see the stars.

The point is that this team won’t give up. I’m not going to tell you whether you should or shouldn’t. I’ve been down that road and there’s nothing there but conjecture and rationalisation. Some people have that sweet, sweet blind faith. Some people need to be invited in. Some of us feel compelled to spew words onto the page like we might find truth in ourselves and the words if we can only see them. We all have different vibes, man. But the 17 people and the world’s most stubborn coach? They’re just crazy enough to fight.

Kaeo Weekes gets his first run and it does likely mean a slight stylistic change. Canberra won’t be able to rely on Jamal Fogarty’s boot to put them in some of the best set start positions in the competition (as we mentioned yesterday, 4th best starting position for them, forcing opponents into the 2nd worst, per the Rugby League Eye Test). That means more pressure on the middles to make up the difference on the ground. It also means Ethan Strange in game eight and Chevy Stewart in game three will also be asked to do more in the creative stakes.

It also means that Morgan Smithies and the other middles will have an even bigger role in ensuring the ball gets well wide of the ruck. Neither Danny Levi nor Tom Starling is capable of Josh Hodgson style conducting of a set, nor his ability to get width into an attack just cos he could fling it that far. While Weekes and Strange were effective game managers in the trials they played together, it’s not the strength of either at this point in their careers. More decisions and execution will be required by the big men as to when and how the ball gets wide. It’s something Canberra have done well this year, more than the immediate past and even more than other teams. They can ill afford to go back into their shells.

Defensively it’s a slightly different proposition with the Sharks this week. They use yardage backs to win a few rucks then straight to the edges. Their middles are mostly window dressing. Many have been uncomplimentary about Hudson Young’s performance this season but to me that undersells what he and Ethan Strange have done in defence. With Zak Hosking in tow it felt like the Milk had solved their edge questions. Now Huddo’s the last man standing. Simi Sasagi is having to form connections on the run and Ata Mariota has played more minutes on the right edge as he has in the middle. Depending on how you think about Corey Horsburgh’s time at right edge last season the Raiders are arguably down to the 4th and 5th edge options. Better hope Huddo doesn’t make origin. Someone check Elliott Whitehead’s calf.

Maybe we embrace the crazy and believe in this group of wonderful lunatics but let’s be frank. If the Raiders are going to jag one of these next two games (and beyond) it’s going to require a bit of a change of approach. People will want them to tighten in, do less. Play more conservative but without Fogarty I’d go the other way. Not so much embracing the changes made but doubling down and expanding on what they’ve been doing. Some well executed plans matched with a siege mentality (trademark Sticky) that would make Hector smile nostalgically. Surely some good old fashioned chaos. It’s possible I swear. Not likely. But a man can hope.

A bit less regimentation and certainty? A bit more width through unconventional means? A bit of light then dark then light again? A cocked eye, a wry smile and wiping the blood from their lip? Destitution and hope? Chaos? It’s practically the Raiders way.

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