BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders 44-16 loss to the Sydney Roosters was a lesson from a more skilled and experienced side. It was proof of the gap Canberra needs to traverse in order to go from also-ran to contender. This is not a loss to write-off a season over, and it had moments of brightness. But it is an important game to calibrate just where the Raiders are relative to the competition. This wasn’t so much a match as a measurement.

The Raiders had been redlining in recent weeks just to get to this point. Against less qualified sides they’d had to scrap and claw ways to victory. It was impressive and inspiring, but the sustainability against a side that has basically put points on in recent weeks like they were moving product in East Baltimore was always going to be tough. Shit they put 40 on the Broncos, 60 on the Dragons. Even in losing to the Sharks last week they still scored 30. The Milk had been scrambling to keep out far more ‘honest’ attacks. This was always going to be a exposition of sorts.

And that it was. Canberra did their darndest to put their game plan into work but it was helpless in the face of the pace and sophistication their opposition offered. Easts attacked their edges with such ferocity and relentlessness. Their plan was clear from the moment they got the ball: draw the Raiders edge defenders into the middle to make tackles, and expose the forwards that had to fill in to substitute while they stood at marker.

The Roosters scored eight tries and by my count on five of them the try was scored by running through a space normally populated by, or supported by, an edge defender who was helping elsewhere. The first try came when Victor Radley strolled through where Ethan Strange and Hudson Young would normally be. They were still at marker from the previous tackle and Morgan Smithies was too slow, Seb Kris too turned-out. Joey Manu rolled over Kris later when Young was again caught at the ruck. Immediately after half time the Roosters rolled through the middle, and then scored with Joseph Sua’ali’i running through untouched where Matt Timoko would normally be. He was standing in the middle of the field having been drawn in by the collapsing defence.

Look you get the picture. It wasn’t just these tries, and it wasn’t just the tries. More could have come, if not for obstructions and a few other imperfections by the Roosters – such as when Radley took out Strange’s legs to save Kris from further embarrassment. For the most part this wasn’t the fault of those absent; they had been drawn in by weakness elsewhere. But it did expose (again) the difficulties Canberra’s middles have when targeted with pace.

And it exposed a further issue. The Milk’s middle defence hasn’t been as stout as it needs to be. Sometimes this is because of the pace of teams attacking the fringes, running at the spot between the widest middle and the second rower. But also it’s because they were physically dominated far too often. Spencer Leniu and Jared Warea-Hargreaves in particular were brutal through the first three-quarters of the game. They routinely skittled Canberra’s defenders. Danny Levi missed six more tackles. Smithies and Tapine four each. Young and Whitehead both missed eight, though most were not on the edge but rather efforts when they were made to do the work of the middles.

The team had sixty missed tackles in total, such was the chaos caused. It was merciless. Canberra never had a hold on the game, like they were wrestling a dog that has got hold of something they shouldn’t have. It was always tense, and it always felt flimsy. It’s felt similar in other games but the Raiders have essentially just tried harder to cover the problem. Against a side like the Roosters this wasn’t enough.

It put scoreboard pressure on them that made their attacking approach feel quaint by comparison. The old one-out hit-up returned little of the pressure on the Roosters defence, and instead relied on someone, anyone, skittling the opposition before anything exciting could happen. When you’re gassed from chasing a chicken like Rocky, overpowering your opposition becomes much harder.

Joe Tapine crashed into, but notably rarely through the middle (14 hit ups, 160 plus metres, 60 plus post contact, but notably zero (0) tackle busts). Trey Mooney (8 for 81, 39 post contact) was again impressive despite not registering huge numbers. though he did play 41 minutes which is his longest stint this season. And Timoko (16 for 142m) and Xavier Savage (9 for 118m) did their share coming out of yardage in particular.

But it never felt like Canberra were operating at an advantage, or really punching a hole in them. Instead it felt like they were on a two-step; one set to settle with the promise the next set would be when something would happen. Instead that set never came, because when the ball came the other way they were forced to scramble, and then the ‘settle’ set started again.

It limited the options and space that Strange, Kaeo Weekes and Jordan Rapana worked in. They were constantly trying to create with more defenders around them than attackers. Strange tried to use his change of pace to get around, or straighten through in order to create. He also tried to get Savage early ball to let him cook. Rapana tried to be direct at first receiver, or throw a hero-ball. Neither worked consistently.

The lack of space and the intensity of the opposition’s jamming defence meant that the further they got behind they more hurried they became in their decision making. Errors followed. Rapana thrice threw impossible passes to wingers. Strange pushed balls that didn’t need to be thrown early in sets that ended in error. Even Matty T pushed a pass for an error. In between it all Weekes and Timoko abandoned so many shifts to run into a jamming defence it felt like ritual sacrifice.

They were efforts searching for hope like the light on the hill. Attempts were made to either play like there was space, or manufacture it, despite the intense onslaught they were facing. Like their defence, their attack always felt like it was being subjected to a test. It was a game played at a different pace than they were used to and it hurried every decision in their young and imperfect creators.

When Canberra did score it required help. All three tries required help to get into position – the first a dropped bomb by Teddy, the second a ruck penalty, the third a late set six-again. The first try required a miss from the refs (arguably an illegal steal) on a drop, and then a generous read of a tap-back on a fine kick by Strange. Hudson Young’s try was a good read by Danny Levi but an equally atrocious defensive decision by Sam Walker (though, perhaps his surprise, and the extent to which he was out of position was evidence of the simplicity and predictability of the Raiders attack to that point).

Weekes ran over Luke Keary for the final try, which was funny, but the best work in the set came in the interchange of passes between Strange and Young. Other good moments included Timoko creating a break for Kris and Savage through sheer will. But similar to their defence it always felt like they were trying to break through a brick wall with a spoon. A better prepared team may have brought a sledge hammer, or even just walked around the wall. Canberra dug at that wall like crazy.

The result was unfortunate but indicative. If Canberra had any misgivings about competing with the best in the competition this was confirmation of the size of that gap. More broadly it’s further proof that strategically more sophistication is needed, and the continued evolution of the forward pack is required. Too often they weren’t powerful or quick enough. It would be nice to be one of these things.

In the moment it hurts but for the long-term it’s a good thing. The pace of the game, the limited opportunities, time and space to make decisions, was an important level up moment for their young players. I wouldn’t say this was Ethan Strange’s best game, but it was an experience that will provide an insight for him at just what is needed to be consistently elite at this level. Days like this hurt now but provide productive factors for future success.

There’s lessons to learn, for next week and next year. This isn’t something to lose hope over or panic. This is a marker; a baseline to build from. The current approach will work on other days, maybe even next week. But it hasn’t worked on teams like the Roosters, the Sharks or the Broncos, and it won’t work on the Panthers.

That’s the margin between them and the top so far this year. Finding a way to bridge that gap is the challenge going forward. After today it feels like a long journey.

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