Idle hands do the devils work.
When you don’t play finals the offseason feels so much longer, and in need of action. Something must be done, and while actions are taken, they’re spread out over a longer time. Change comes, decisions are made. Yet it feels like it’s not enough because it fills the space like a gas, spreading out over the longer time offered.
It allows us to spend our offseason inventing problems, playing fantasy football with starting line ups, wondering ‘what if’ and hoping our players don’t behave like the Sydney Swans.
The Raiders have been given two storylines this offseason. Hudson Young’s acrimonious contract discussion, and how to fit every player we want into the lineup, including people who aren’t even with the club.
The former has led to handwringing from lunatics with blogs, and a general desire for ‘it’ to be over with. The latter has manifested most obviously in the discussion around what to do with Coby Black and Ethan Sanders. I like to think my colours are nailed to the mast on this. In short, Ethan Strange is already your best six, one of the best in the game, is just 22 and getting better. You have two ball-dominant game managers in Black and Sanders, and avoiding choosing between them because you’d prefer to keep everyone is optimistic at best.
I watched Ethan Sanders fight Danny Levi and Adam Cook for touches in NSW Cup, and it makes me wary of making him do that around the even more ball dominant Black and Owen Pattie. It just doesn’t make sense to put these three on the field together, outside of limited circumstances (alright Freddy Foreshadowing).
But many see a world where they can work together, and maybe they will one day. I’m not a doctor. Once I got lost in Madrid, and only found my way back to my hotel by pulling a George Costanza, and taking the opposite turns to what my intuition thought. I am no thought leader. Just a man who writes stuff and needs a shower.
The upshot is we argue about things that may never happen, create divides that don’t exist, and spend our time waiting for stuff to happen until there’s football again. Idle hands man. They make you do strange things.
Anyway, on to your questions.
Who will have the best hair for game 1
Herman
Ok maybe not everyone is focused on Strange or Huddo.
The obvious answer is Noah Martin, who has leap-frogged Ata Mariota to inherit the role of ‘glorious mane’ from Josh Papalii. A dark horse for next year – Joe Roddy. He just seems like a dude who could get an old-fashioned mullet and make it sing.
Fun right? Now let’s get on to Ethan and the boys.
What are your thoughts on the Sanders/Black/Strange puzzle? Do you think it’s Sanders’ spot until Black is ready?
Andrew
Could you talk about the pros and cons to having 1) Weekes, 6) Sanders 7) Black, 13 Strange.
Rory
Evening Dan
After Strange’s dominant performance at lock in his international debut, should we play him there?*
*think carefully about your answer as coffee beans are at stake
Regards,
Green Machine Podcast Listener of the year, Harry
A lot was made in the media, and in the greater Raiderverse, of Strange’s performance at lock in the Kangaroos victory over the Cook Islands. Luke Keary thought the Raiders should play him at lock going forward. Kevin Walters said Strange had even trained there for the Milk.
It’s true, he was amazing. That needs to be taken with a grain of salt given he was playing the Cook Islands, and wasn’t really playing lock, but more ‘guy getting the ball a heap in space’. He’s really good at that, be it at centre, lock or five-eighth. That space won’t be on offer in the NRL, and at lock he’d just be making tackles, taking hit ups and making the occasional pass. It would be a tremendous waste of his talent.
Just like not giving me coffee beans would be a waste of beans, Harry.
Hey mate,
My mailbag question is if the Raiders try and squeeze Strange, Sanders and Black into the starting 13, does that encourage Strange to go to the Chooks? I don’t see that happening, cause he’s a NSW/Australia rep at 6 but still, hypotheticals are thrown around all the time
Albert
Albert I feel you. Ethan will say he wants to play wherever the club needs him, but he’s been clear in the past that five-eighth is his preferred position. There’s not a team in the league that wouldn’t offer him the opportunity to play there. The Roosters would just make the most sense in terms of relationships, and cash.
Three doesn’t go into two but what if Coby Black gets a few games at 14? Will give him some experience in first grade and the chance to build combinations with Ethan². Obviously Malachi Smith is in the running for bench hooker but just a thought.
Brian
Brian I love this thought. Remember when Cooper Cronk broke into the league? He spent two years coming on as a spare half off the bench, getting occasional opportunities when Matt Orford would rest, or be injured, or even just roaming around the middle as the game allowed. It wasn’t his third season until he ran the team on his own.
And while I hate the idea of Strange permanently being moved to lock (or centre) to accommodate Black or Sanders together, I hate it less as a different look thrown at the end of games where the middle is feeling particularly ratty, something that happens more often under Vlandoball. It comes with massive defensive downsides, so you can’t do it often, but it might be worth the occasional look. It can add a bit of variation where needed, so long as it doesn’t undermine development of preferred starters at their specific positions.
Ok, enough debating positions. Let’s get into the real spakfilla of the offseason: recruitment!
Hey mate,
I’ve been looking into possible targets for 2027/28 — players coming off contract and those who might be able to get a release if their club has a surplus in their position.
Would love your take on who would be the best signing. I think we need a couple of props. Hopoi and Hunt don’t fill me with confidence, and Puhulu didn’t get a run at the storm (although was a freak in juniors).
Some of names I’ve been thinking about are Xavier W (can’t see it happening), Thomas Flegler (rumour he’s open to a move) J’maine Hopgood, Fonua Pole, Jack Williams, Alex Twal, Tom Hazelton (Canberra junior from memory) and Nat Butcher. Gilbert is another that might get squeezed out although he’s a captain so can’t see that happening (like him for leadership/aggression)
I like Hopgood at lock, Flegler would be fantastic (if healthy), Pole and Nat butcher (super consistent and would make 1000 tackles).
To replace Young on the edge Liam Martin, Heilum Luki, Jeremiah Nanai, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Siua Wong, Jordan Riki, Beau Fermor, Connelly Lemuelu and David Fifita (think the last two have just resigned).
Our 1-17 should be pretty good for round 1 but our depth is fucked.. personally, I think we need an established middle, leadership qualities and a level of aggression. Sucks Young is leaving but Matty N and Noah are great and will get better. I imagine we will need to spend some of his money locking down Black, Pattie next year anyway.
Kind Regards,
Liam
Liam I kept all this because it’s a really good overview of the market out there. In terms of the aims, finding reliable middles should be the focus, and maybe depth at backrow and in the outside backs. In terms of the names there’s a few there that I’d love (Finefeuiaki, Lemuelu, Wong, Butcher) that will never leave their current abodes. There’s others who reputation overshadows their output (Nanai and Fermor) but I’m not convinced they’d come to town either.
And that’s the rub. Canberra doesn’t really often get known quantities like the players you’ve identified. They get prospects like Pahulu or Hopoi. Workers like Hunt. People who aren’t ‘names’. It’s not always easy to look into the market and work out who that might be. But as you say, depth is where they need to be shopping.
I understand that there has been grief about Hudson Young. The Raiders have stood by him through his growing pains and seen him develop into a NSW Blue and Kangaroo.
However, if the Raiders used that money to sign Liam Martin it is an upgrade in a few respects.
1 – The age difference is negligible 27 v 28 – 1 year, but think about the experience benefit to the locker room. 4 premierships in a row + 2 Prelim Finals – Considering the age of our spine, this is important. With the loss of Papa – this cannot be understated.
2 – Young can make magic, but also is prone to taking the wrong option. With Liam Martin, you get greater consistency on a week to week basis. He will make sure the team plays straighter, can be an aerial threat, and is good for a crash play inside angle run at the goal line.
3 – Defence. Liam Martin loves defence, which has been the Achilles Heel for the Raiders for too long. Especially with young halves and centres who have been exposed too easily at times. The Panthers system is built on ruthless defenders, which is central to fixing the Raiders’ woes. Hudson can make a big hit, but who do you trust to make the best decisions on a game by game basis? Who do you trust to help the halves and centres in big moments?
4 – Noah Martin = Young Liam Martin. They have the same playing style. Who better to mentor him?
I think that the Raiders signing Liam Martin is the right move, and if takes the same 1.1m we offered Hudson – so be it.
Jason
I don’t hate any of it Jason, but as I wrote here, I just don’t think it’s likely that he’ll come. But that doesn’t mean the Raiders shouldn’t make a play. Put the bomb up and hope the fullback drops it.
Hi Dan,
Tapine, Sasagi, Weekes. Extreme talent that was only unlocked at the Raiders.
My take: Canberra’s market reality creates an ecosystem of opportunity, not just a magical coaching wand.
Andrew B
It’s a great point Andrew. People come here to make their name. They get the chance to, without the pressure that comes at other clubs, within an environment that rewards effort.
Most of the time they stay. Sometimes they leave, and when we’ve helped them make their name, it only hurts so much more.
Speaking of opportunity…
Hi Dan
I was very sorry about Hudson’s injury but I do agree, his silence doesn’t look good for staying in Canberra. I hope he leaves next year, it will be hard to support him in 2027 when we know he is leaving. His mate Starling has taken his move away to the Super League like an absolute gentleman and I think he will have gained a lot of respect from Raiders fans in the way he has handled himself.
I presume as Pattie worked there, he will be taking over the ‘Fork Yeah’ mic too?
Angela
First of all, thank you for all your kind words in the rest of your email Angela. Secondly, I agree, Hudson is almost certainly gone, and visiting Port Moresby doesn’t make that feel more likely. Stick has now said he’d be open to Huddo leaving. I think the odds have shifted to Young playing elsewhere in 2027, and for the Chiefs in 2028.
As you rightly point out, Tommy Starling has taken the other route, leaving the club with nothing but grace and the well-wishes of everyone.
But the real point you hit on that we’ve all been missing is who will hold the ‘Fork Yeah’ mic. Does it transfer positionally? Is it divine right? Nepotism could give it to Jed. I wouldn’t think Taps would want to do it, but in terms of seniority the next most capped Raider is Matt Timoko and you can’t have him leading the team song and doing Fork Yeah can you? It’s a conflict of interest surely.
My pitch is for Kaeo Weekes. He’s always going to be there, and his performance in the jersey announcement was a standout (should we worry about Rusty trying to sign him up with a promise of getting him into the industry? Get in, we’re hyperventilating). I bet he’s a wizard with the mic. Let him at it.
Oh and while we’re on jerseys…
Jersey is still too white, will we continue to suffer the curse of the white jersey?
Tobias
Tobias I love you and I love the Raiders so I’m going to let you in on a secret. I don’t care about the jerseys. As long as they have a Raiders logo on it (I don’t even care about the new one v the old one. I prefer the oldest one if you make me choose) then I buy them, and I wear them. I think I have three different white jerseys.
But your real point isn’t about the look of the jersey is it, Tobias? It’s about the fact that the Raiders lose in them so often. There’s only one way to fix that.
On that
Hey Dan,
Long time reader, first time mailbag entrant.
With the speculation for 2027 in full swing, who do you feel will be our break out star and who will be our surprise packet?
Secondly, outside of a premiership, what would you like to see most from the team this year?
Thanks as always for your hard work!!
Lachie
Lachie this is an incredibly handsome question.
I know you’ve seen the photos of Joe Roddy recently. I was so impressed by limited appearances last season. He looked comfortable in all backrow positions, had a workrate straight out of the Alan Tongue textbook, and looked ready to shine. I think he’ll be a regular in the 17 next season, and will thrive.
The other I think is Ata Mariota. I’ve been surprised to see a bit of scepticism towards Ata in the general commentariat but I think with more responsibility, and opportunity, he will also succeed.
In terms of what I’d like to see next season, there’s a bunch. But I’d love to see how Owen Pattie, and Ethan Strange, find their feet in the attack. In the previous two years, the seven has been the focal point of the attack. This has occurred for reasons of development, of personality, and of preferred playing style. But Canberra will never succeed if Pattie and Ethan aren’t playing a big role. So I’m keen to see both spread their wings.
How do we stop the rot? Echoing much of what you’ve said before, the NRL isn’t interested in the Raiders, certainly our Government isn’t interested in the Raiders (unless they played some sort of weird-arsed footy/AFL/cricket hybrid at Moneyka which is apparently more convenient to CM Barr’s home); and it appears sadly even the players are losing interest despite Stick’s best efforts to cater for changing player needs, and prepare them for life not just as footy players.
With our two best chances destroyed by 2019 trainer/6again/Leiluabrainsnapgate & the great 2025 choke shooting down hopes of premiership glory for the foreseeable future, I fear we are yet again entering a post ’94 slump that will last for years, possibly decades. This makes me obviously sad as a fan, but angry as hell PVL has his priorities so blinded by glamour & coin, rather than supporting all levels of rugby league, from the bush through to Bondi & Brisvegas (oh and of course, PNG) and including the “also ran” clubs like the Raiders and the “fringe” Sydney clubs. The precipice rugby union has tumbled over, and test cricket is teetering on, should be seen as far warning of not looking after the basics.
Wow, that’s a lot of negatives and I have no answers to give. I’m of the vintage I’d best go have a Bex and a good lie down.
*sigh*
Willow the Tuggeranong Raider
No notes Willow. You’re 100 per cent right. The game needs widespread investment to ensure the talent pipeline remains full. The Raiders are incredibly important in that process. Good thing Vlando wouldn’t waste a broadcast windfall on brainfarts like NRL World hey.
Obligatory question about music?
Matt
Matt thank you for asking me the question because I have something to tell everyone.
Go listen to The Pernicious. They’re a Melbourne punk band (they call it Skate Punk, if that means something to you). I saw them as an opener before the opener before the Smith Street Band recently. They’ve just released their first album, and they might be my favourite band right now. They have less than 100 monthly listeners on Spotify. And they rule.
So if you’re into that kind of thing, get in on the ground floor. I’m not going to say they’re going to be big – I did think Michael Dobson was going to be a 10-year halfback after all. But they certainly do rock.
While I’m on local acts, if you haven’t listened to Grace Cummings new record Bloodhorse! then you’re not living.
Hi Dan,
I look forward every week to your commentary on our team. I generally agree with your analysis even though sometimes you can be harsh. My husband and I have been Raiders supporters since moving to Canberra in the late 1980s after several years overseas. I took my son to home games to do something special with him. He played with friends out the back of the stadium with a ball while I got interested in watching the game. The rest is history. I am most interested in strategy – don’t like unnecessary violence. Raiders need thinking players like Joe Tapine. This Tongan/Samoa game is pretty good.
Anyway keep up the good work.
Cheers, Paulene
Paulene, thank you so much for writing in. That experience resonates with me, and the experience of your son was almost the same as mine (although I probably was paying a bit more attention to the game). I hope your son is passing the obsession on to his kids too. Because it’s healthy dammit.
Is Daine Laurie a thermomix? We paid for him. Can apparently do everything. But are we actually going to use him?
Ben
Ben we just did this whole thing about trying to squeeze Sanders, Black and Strange into the same line up. Don’t make me find a spot for another ballplayer.
Now that V’landys isn’t in charge of horse racing, will that mean we’ll have even more rule changes for 2027?
That’s the idle hands we really have to worry about. Oooft. Now there’s a man who can invent problems.
Thank you for all your questions, and sorry if I didn’t get to yours. This is already too long. Sign up to the email below to get our thoughts in your inbox for the vibes, the dreams, and the stories. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.
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