To this point the Canberra Raiders pursuit of Liam Martin had been largely theoretical.
Hudson Young was leaving. Liam Martin was in the market. It wasn’t so much an either/or situation, more an if/then. If Hudson didn’t take the $1.1m, maybe they could offer it to Liam Martin? Why not swap one representative backrower for another? It wasn’t clear that Martin was likely to be leaving Penrith. It wasn’t likely that Canberra was a landing spot if he did. But the idea was sound within the parameters of the hypothetical.
In the last week some of the facts here have solidified. The Raiders pulled their offer to Hudson last week, effectively landing the first part of the idea. Young is now almost certainly going to the Chiefs. He’s heading there this week apparently, and the Papua New Guinean team has made a big deal of people making commitments to sign before they make the trip.
To this point the Martin bit felt more optimistic than realistic. Martin was part of an ongoing conversation about how to keep the whole band together when the cost of keeping the lead singer – Nathan Cleary – was likely to take a steep increase. But Martin had been clear that his preference was to stay in Penrith.
That doesn’t appear to have changed, but the door has opened, at least rhetorically, for Martin to make a move to Canberra. As reported by Nine News on Tuesday (and hat tip to the Greenhouse for putting us on to it), Martin has admitted he’s considering the move to the Raiders:
I’m open to it. Obviously, close to home and it’s pretty interesting. The boys speak very highly of Ricky, so I’d be really interested. Penrith would still hopefully be my first option and work out a deal. But if not, I’d be looking forward to it.
It’s not a wholehearted embrace, but it’s definitely a veiled threat to the ‘Riff. Let’s get a deal done or there’s a suitor ready and waiting.
It’s trite to acknowledge, but this is almost certainly a textbook example of a Raider Raise (hi Jack, hope you’re well). Martin wants to make sure the ‘Riff meet his contract expectations. He’s saying he might go to Canberra, where the amount of money they have available is more explicit than you’d normally expect. He’s not throwing all in. Just a little bit of a nod. These guys will pay me if you try to lowball me.
But a deal being unlikely doesn’t mean the Raiders should just give up. They’ve been hurt before, they’ll be hurt again. It’s time to get back out there and date again. And besides, if Martin’s relationship with the ‘Riff breaks down, the Milk are currently, and can remain, in the position to pick up the pieces. There’s no complicated ex when it comes to football.
There’s a more nuanced conversation about whether it’s the best way to spend their money. This isn’t a comparison between Huddo and Martin. Huddo is likely leaving; that cost is sunk. Martin would be an impressive rebound, a representative backrower who runs strong lines and defends as well as any at his position.
But the Raiders would be paying full value for him (much as they would have been for Huddo). It’s not so much the expense of it, but the opportunity cost. Are there realistic and more efficient ways to spend that money? Could they get a Finefuiaki, a Lemuelu, or a Lisati? They’d cost less if they could be bought. Should they be buying a backrower at all when they desperately need middles? Is it insane for the Raiders to turn up their nose at a rep forward when they have so few? We’ve just lost one after offering them everything in the city bar Stage 88. Turning away another because a lower cost was too high would be a new experience.
I don’t have definitive answers to these questions. But they don’t need answering now. Martin’s dance with Penrith has a long time to resolve, and by the time it comes to a critical decision point Canberra might have spent the money elsewhere.
But the door is a little bit more open than before. Canberra should put their foot in it, if only to keep alive the possibility of getting Martin to follow them out. Martin may not be the most efficient use of resources, but while there’s uncertainty in the market, for Martin and for the Milk, they would be negligent not to remain ready to act.
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