The Canberra Raiders 34-24 victory over the South Sydney Rabbitohs is not proof they are back. It is not a repudiation of who they are either. In a game where they fought multiple foes; the opposition, themselves, and the officials. They somehow defeated all of them. They’re hurting from the result, but it’s a good pain, the kind that makes you realise you’re still alive.
Canberra established their lead on the back of a twist on a familiar formula. Sure, they wanted to win the middle. With Owen Pattie at the helm that’s become a feature of their improvement. Play to your strengths, right? Joe Tapine cranked up the metres (117 in the first half, 165 overall). Hudson Young (72m first half metres) and Zac Hosking jumped in behind, and Ata Mariota was hitting 11m a carry on the limited times he actually got the ball.
But as importantly, Simi Sasagi (133m first half metres, 204 overall) took so many strong, forward-like runs, straight at Cody Walker, asking the Bunnies’ talisman to make more tackles than he’d like. He made 14 in the first half. Before this game he averaged 16 a game. It was like BJ Leilua was back and disciplined.
This intention was obvious, and while Tapine and Sasagi were on the field together, successful. And the spine thrived, with the Raiders scoring five tries in the opening 27 minutes (Checkov’s minute reference). Canberra took advantage of their advantage. It’s rare to see a team score four tries on eight redzone tackles (plus two intercept tries!), but why waste time?
Owen Pattie was again exciting, scoring one try created by Ethan Strange, and set up one for Noah Martin. That was on the end of a set that was the epitome of everything they were trying to achieve. It ended with Martin crashing through the line after Pattie danced at a retreating line he, Matty Timoko, Simi Sasagi and Zac Hosking had created in a long march down the field. It was the game plan in one perfect set.
Ethan Strange set up a try for Owen Pattie by using his power and quick feet to make David Fifita look like a child trying to catch his Dad. Hudson Young scored a try on the end of 11 sets of hands. That came from a defensive line too fatigued to put pressure on the ball carrier at the end of a set.
Kaeo Weekes scored two tries. One was on the end of an intercept, a testament to having the fast car in the garage on the rare occasion there’s a bit of sunshine. The other came on the back of an Ethan Sanders forty-twenty, in which he seemingly moved in mid-air to step past a jamming Tallis Duncan on a redzone shift. It was subtle. It was glorious. Wake up Van Gogh, give him a brush and point him at Kaeo moving through the air. He’ll get it.
And Ethan Sanders again had an excellent game. He had a hand in the leadup to a host of tries and kicked brilliantly. In addition to the aforementioned forty-twenty, it was particularly noteworthy early in the second half when the Raiders did not have the way of things. He continually found distance, and grass, meaning that bad sets became good, and a team that had gone from dominating to losing control, kept the game stable.
But all this goodness fell in a hole. Firstly, because the middle started losing control of the game. The Raiders scored five tries in the first 27 minutes. Joe Tapine went off after 27 minutes. No one replicated his impact, and while Hosking and Sasagi were doing their part, Corey Horsburgh had 67 metres for the game on 10 carries. Josh Papalii had 26. Then Hudson Young got injured, forcing Hosking from the middle, meaning Raiders lost their offensive dynamism and defensive cover in the trenches.
The result was that much of the second half was played in Canberra’s half. By the time Tapine came back on in the second half the Bunnies had been tackled 29 times on their preferred side of halfway. The Raiders had made it into the opposition’s territory for 3. Such was the change in the game.
This was exacerbated by bad old habits. Hosking’s absence from middle defence was notable. Handling errors abounded – the Raiders only completed 65 per cent of their second half sets. And infringements came at the worst times. This mess mixed like a clogged sewer system as all the worst bits of the Raiders came together.
Noah Martin made an error the first time the Milk got some good ball. Moments later the Bunnies scored from a textbook obstruction that was overlooked by the bunker because what are rules anyway, man? The next set a Huddo penalty became Cam Murray running over him. It was Young’s defensive error, but for the second time in the game Ethan Strange had abandoned his inside shoulder responsibilities before he should have. In a short time, the game went from hard to in doubt.
Then the refs got involved. If the Johnston try was a bad decision by the bunker, Wyatt Raymond wanted to prove he was the real brains of the outfit, somehow turning a blatant Cody Walker knock-on into a try because, fuck I dunno at this point. But that had begun with a Brandon Smith break from dummy-half, with the Raiders unable to control the middle again. Tapine came on after the Walker try, and the Bunnies didn’t score again.
This is the key problem facing Canberra. Owen Pattie is a genius, a gift, and a problem for anyone facing them. Ethan Strange is a weapon. Simi Sasagi is somehow a workhorse and a thoroughbred. Kaeo Weekes moves with fluidity and abruptness like a Flamenco dancer charming an audience. Ethan Sanders is improving each week, making better, and smarter decisions. The forty-twenty. The long-kicking at the start of the second half. But he also did veteran moves like sending a long grubber into touch late in the game to give the Milk a chance to set their defence.
These are things that don’t just work, but excel. Canberra have the talent to write sonnets through rugby league (“shall I compare thee to a Sasagi in-and-away? Thou art more lovely but don’t lead to points”). They have plenty of the talent in the pack too, but injuries, developmental stasis, ageing, and general underperformance, are holding them back.
When the middle does their job, they are incredible, and deserve to put 30 plus points on half-decent teams like the Rabbitohs. When they don’t they become the decidedly average mob we’ve lamented this season. This game had both, and it was just a relief that their best was so much better than what held them back, be it themselves, injury, or the vagaries of fate (i.e. the refs doing weird shit).
So no, another victory does not mean the 2026 Canberra Raiders have not found some magic elixir that has cured what ails them. They have not found a bottle marked ‘Mal’s Secret Stuff’. They are working hard to overcome their flaws so obvious, so public, that it feels like they’re closer to making a seminal rock album than playing a game of football. Let’s not treat this like it’s some miracle. It’s hard work, better personnel, and the confidence that comes with not having to have people overachieve just to be mediocre.
Good teams overcome circumstance. Canberra did that, and will need to do it more and more over the coming weeks. Are they a good team? No, not yet, and it’s only going to get harder without Hudson Young for the rest of the season. But this means that the possibility remains. A chance to get hurt again. And really, that’s more than we would have hoped a few weeks ago.
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