According to the Daily Telegraph, the Canberra Raiders have signed emerging Canterbury Bulldogs prop Lipoi Hopoi.
No details have emerged about the deal as yet, and we should always remain sceptical of anything produced by Brent Read, but on face value it represents the initial foray into rebuilding a middle rotation that has been stripped of its numbers this year, and collapsed under the weight.
With Morgan Smithies, Josh Papalii, Jake Clydsdale, and maybe Corey Horsburgh and Jayden Brailey walking out the door, and only emerging but talented youth like Jesse Milin and Vena Patuki-Case – the latter not even signed for next year – in the pipeline, steps had to be taken.
While there has been more noise about Moses Leota, this is much more the pay bracket that the Raiders can operate in. As reported by the Canberra Times, with big offers to keep Hudson Young and Ethan Sanders at the club, there’s not a lot of cap room to go big game hunting, so marginal gains and upside gambles are the strategic approach.
Hopoi is a small, but important piece of that strategy. He’s young – just 24 – and looking for a clearer pathway into first grade. There’s arguably not a clearer one than the Raiders right now. He’s just entering his prime, meaning Canberra are making a bet that they can get him on fringe first-grader money and turn him into a top-line middle. Buy low, turn them into a big-minutes player, and live off the surplus.
Right now it’s hard to tell if he’s worth the bet. He’s can really rock contact when he wants. In a side that has often felt like it’s struggling to win those contests, this could be a boon and a weapon. He gets through substantial minutes and heavy usage in Cup, but is yet to get an opportunity to show that in first grade.
Expecting what he achieves against the ‘not-yets and never-weres’ of NSW Cup to be translatable to first grade is silly. But similarly, expecting permanency in anything a 24 year old does is a fool’s game.
For Canberra this is more about fixing a problem somewhat of their own making. They bet on the rules staying the same. They bet on Papa’s health, Smithies’ development, and Horsburgh’s commitment instead of Trey Mooney’s potential and Pasami Saulo’s consistency. There are young players coming through, but they won’t be ready for next season. It created a big gap in their roster that has been acutely felt this season, and now they have to find cheap ways to fix it.
This is both a want and a necessity. They want players that they can turn into stars. But they also need people that can eat first grade minutes and still have an impact. Hopoi has been trying to find an opportunity to do just that. If this was a boardroom we’d call it synergy and there’d be back-slaps all round.
But it’s not a sure thing, and is a test of their scouting. This is a punt, a smart one, but still gambling. Canberra are getting in on a player that could be anything – he could even be a box – and if it’s going to happen it will happen while they have him at the club. That they can get that player on the cheap is good business.
But the lack of certainty remains an issue. They can’t just spin the wheel and get middles that perform each week. They still need more certainty in their options, which would explain why they’re still in the market by all accounts.
I’d expect that at the other end of the market. Not so much in the high-end space as rumoured through the Moses Leota discourse, but finding proven experience, more solid than the spectacular of the Penrith star.
Hopoi is the first step in the Raiders rebuilding their middle rotation. With many gone, and possibly more going, the urgency to take action was clear. Hopoi is only a piece of that solution. Hopefully he becomes a big piece.
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