BY DAN

Amidst the questionable vibes of the Jed Stuart extension ‘announcement’ and the news that Joe Roddy’s deal was official, it has been notable that there has been no reporting on new deals for Morgan Smithies and Ata Mariota. Given the club only just announced they were talking to the new starters, it makes the delay in deals for Smithies and Mariota all the more stark.

It’s been near six months since Smithies was rumoured to be penning an extension, and even longer for Ata. Both deals were slow-played during the off-season by a manager with seemingly little interest in getting a deal done (as demonstrated by the fact that near deals are still not deals as far as we know, months later). This was presumably to take advantage of new teams coming into the competition, hoping to take that leverage and turn it into more pay. There has been no progress beyond ‘pretty much done’. In the rugby league world that’s worth noting.

Balancing certainty against what’s in the box is always a tricky game. Ata and Morgan both had the best seasons of their respective careers in 2025, and the upside potential of both felt as high as Afroman. But in 2026 the form of both can charitably be described as mediocre. Mariota is meant to be entering his prime but his best remains tantalisingly at arms-length. His 79 metres a game are in-line with last season, but when most were pricing in an increase, it feels like a disappointment.

Smithies is at a career low in metres (67 per game), much below his 2024 (89) or 2025 (83) numbers. Of course this is influenced by a reduction in minutes, but even when gifted those minutes he hasn’t been productive. Only twice this season has he cracked 100m on the ground, even with six games of over 50 minutes. In the last fortnight he’s played under 30 minutes in both games, with Jayden Brailey (who is not a lock) preferred.

Both have been at the helm of a pack that has simply not kept pace and has been unable to defend in the way necessary to maintain some control of the game. Will any of this cost them? That’s an interesting question. I presume the parameters of the deals that were offered to them in 2025, and seemingly near agreement, haven’t changed.

One would think the Chiefs are getting close to having spent their cash on a litany of high priced acquisitions. Moreso they’re not in the game until 2028, so both Mariota and Smithies would still need a home for 2027. Would they be willing to be cut price next year while waiting for a deal at the Chiefs. I guess that depends on how big that money is.

Perth seems a more likely suitor to me. They’re more desperate to pay big money for players that have potentially plateaued. They have more immediate needs. They could use a signing that makes people go “oh that’s a guy”! Mariota has the most upside, and would presumably be known to Mal Meninga. The NRL has even recognised the difficulties they are facing by extending further salary cap exemptions to them. But if sniffing has occurred we haven’t heard of it yet. Given its nearly July and both have theoretically been on the free market for the best part of eight months now, then it is confusing that nothing is known.

Canberra can ill afford to lose bulk middles, regardless of their current performance. A big reason they’ve struggled this year is that they haven’t been able to survive a wave of injuries in their pack. Trey Mooney and Pasami Saulo left at the end of last year, and with the injuries to the backrow, the Raiders were robbed of critical depth. With Josh Papalii leaving they are not necessarily going to be in a better position after this season If Vena Patuki-Case, Jordan Uta and Jake Clysdale weren’t ready for 15-20 this season, they’re not going to be ready for more than that in Papalii, Ata, and/or Smithies’ absence.

Perhaps they are staying. Perhaps their deals are already done, and will be the same as they were last year. Perhaps Sam Ayoub has bundled Morgan and Ata together with an upgrade for Hudson Young for some sort of uber-commission. I’m not an agent and I’m pretty sure my soul continues to exist north of sea level.

But this delay remains confusing. It is hard to tell if a deal has been done and will be announced later, or if we’re genuinely expecting two players having quiet seasons to be preparing to walk out the door. It may matter, it may not. But someone knows and I would like them to tell me.

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