In the Canterbury Bulldogs NSW Cup game on the weekend, it appeared that Lipoi Hopoi left the field with what appeared to be a significant knee injury.
I say it appeared because I wasn’t there, it wasn’t commented on by the commentator on coverage (other than to note a player was down in backfield). They didn’t show additional footage of the injury on coverage, or really him being helped from the field, other than him popping up in the bottom corner of the coverage with two trainers holding him up, but it was literally only the top half of his body so I couldn’t even see what leg was hurt. The NSW Cup summary of the game didn’t mention the injury, the Canterbury Bulldogs social media accounts don’t mention it, and frankly, the only confirmation this has happened (other than my eyes) is from the good people at the Sydney Milk Syndicate and random social media accounts.
A non contact injury is rarely an insignificant thing, so while we wait for confirmation we’ll hope against hope. Maybe he was just really tired. Maybe he wants to save himself for the Milk. We won’t know for days. Such is life for NSW Cup players.
It’s been that kind of year for the Milk. Take a walk and a rain cloud springs from nowhere. Say hi to your neighbour but actually you left your glasses at home and that’s a tree. Strut down to the boardwalk and a pelican lands on your head and drops a fish in your pants.
Look, normally we don’t care too much about other team’s players. But from 1 November Hopoi is a Raider. A significant injury now would mean not only a delay to his start with the Milk, but would hamper his acclimatisation altogether. It means no real pre-season. It means no building combinations. It means the club continues to have a giant question mark over how he fits into the side.
When you’re placing a bet on the upside, it would be nice to get an idea of what that upside might look like. Canberra get less of an idea and may now have to endure a year in which Hopoi takes time to find his way in the system.
Normally that would be a minor issue. Hey look he’s 24, he could be anything, and one serious injury is unlikely to be determinative of that. One minor injury certainly isn’t. If he’s going to be a consistent first grader, we’ll know at some point during his time with the club.
But that pang of anxiety you feel isn’t just a thought to name and let go. Being worried about an injury to Hopoi is indicative of where the Raiders’ pack is at. It exposes the incredibly shaky foundation on which the Canberra pack is currently built. As we noted the other day, there’s Taps, Ata Mariota, and Zac Hosking. After that there’s nothing but guesses and innuendo. The kids may be good but expecting anything but occasional fifteen-minute bursts is naïve. Jaiyden Hunt may be useful but that ‘may’ feels as optimistic as starting a land war in Asia.
It puts further emphasis on the Raiders’ expectation that they will be able to sign a half a pack in the upcoming ‘volatile’ free agency period. They currently have three first-17 middles from the 2026 for 2027. Joe Roddy will play more minutes. Maybe Matty Nicholson or Hudson Young is playing in the middle rotation. Maybe I am.
It shows the gap that exists between what they have and what they need – i.e. at least two starting quality middles. Hopoi wasn’t meant to be one of those, but I suspect he is (was?) meant to be the first of the depth with potential at being more. Instead, everyone may have to step up a spot, and there’s no acquisition yet pushing them back down.
The claim – that the volatility will drive opportunity – makes sense, until you realise that the Raiders will be competing with the Chiefs, who also need to contract an entire pack. It also requires Don Furner, Chris Hutchison and/or Ricardo Stuart to be Littlefinger-esque in their cunning (“chaos is a ladder weak-gutted dog”)
This season, and particularly the backend of it, has been an indictment of the club’s roster management. Some of that has been driven by luck. I bet they didn’t expect Corey Horsburgh to be leaving this year. They tried to keep Morgan Smithies. And they are likely losing Hudson Young too. Two of those they couldn’t do anything about. The Horse one we won’t know until he, or Stick, stop talking in platitudes.
But they also let Trey Mooney and Pasami Saulo walk last offseason. Mooney hasn’t been as good as his numbers look for Newcastle. He’s still defensively weak, still requiring more minutes than his skill level deserves, but if he was at the club he’d be the third best prop for 2027. Saulo was a workrate monster, and given the club are trying to sign a different version of him in Jaiyden Hunt, it suggests they’re missing that man (me too, to be honest. That smile. That hair. That willingness to make tackles and run decoys).
They’ve also gone the entire season playing Jayden Brailey or Daine Laurie ahead of consistent opportunities for Vena Patuki-Case, Jesse Milin, Jordan Uta or Myles Martin. I’m not saying any of them were ready for a shot, and injury played a role in their playing time, but they might play by necessity next year. It would have made sense for more than the 13 minutes of first grade played by Uta, or the 23 played by Patuki-Case.
Canberra have a problem, one that may have been further exacerbated by the injury to Lipoi Hopoi. The last time things were this desperate the Raiders had to sign Dave Taylor with the expectation that he would be a reliable bench player. They got lucky then. It doesn’t feel like history is going to repeat.
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