BY DAN

If this is not rock bottom then I’m terrified as to what might come.

The Canberra Raiders are not well. I could rattle off a host of stats to prove it but really you’ve got eyes. You’ve seen the hot mess. One victory in their last six weeks. Averaging 15.6 points a game over that time, 18.6 over a season in which the majority of the competition is averaging a full try more. Their defence is as bad as any, as reliable as the courier who left that card in your letterbox when you were sitting on the other side of the door. They make bad decisions more than good, and even when they make good decisions they make them look bad.

They’re not out of the finals in a mathematical sense. If they won eight of their last ten they’d probably make the finals. But then, it’s taken them 14 games to win five, why would they suddenly find a winning streak like that? Who do you trust them to beat right now? I will be at Raiders/Storm next week. I am not expecting anything other than depression, and maybe rain. The Dragons are on the other side of that and no one will be approaching that with confidence.

The Raiders are a bottom four side and they deserve to be. So what now?

Before the season we said this season would be a test of Coach Stuart’s ability to turn 2025’s peak into a trajectory. At this he has failed, at least in a results-focused world. Social media will rumble with calls for accountability from the organisation regarding the coach but this is like telling the weather to be better tomorrow. You can say what you want, but you’re not going to get it.

Stuart now has a responsibility to re-establish some sense of consistency, and effectiveness to this side. In the post game press conference he reflected our review of the game, suggesting the side was too predictable with the football and not courageous enough. Which made me feel smart, but also frustrated, because if someone who gets locked out of their house when they go to the bins can see it, then why can’t a person with fifty years in the game fix it?

Personnel is usually where we land when we try to fix these things. It’s an easy prism to view things through but I’m not sure it provides easy solutions. Ethan Strange and Hudson Young will be back next weekend (hopefully). Josh Papalii must be close too. Sav Tamale will join them. All those players will inject some spark and bite into a side that needs it. Beyond that, we’ll be waiting a long time before someone like Sasagi, Martin or Nicholson comes into our purview to return the Raiders something approaching roster flexibility.

But questions do need to be asked of the players already there. Experienced players like Xavier Savage and Seb Kris were quiet, and ineffective, on Saturday. Matt Timoko continues to be a weapon in attack and a problem in defence. Tom Starling is doing an impossible job, but Owen Pattie’s presence, as a creator and a kicker, seemed to free up Ethan Sanders. Brailey can’t be a lock for big minutes; he’s predictable as a runner/passer, and he’s another small man in defence.

There are changes that can be made. Owen Pattie has to play, and it has to be increasing minutes each week. We said he freed up Sanders in the last twenty minutes on Saturday, and the team looked fresher for it. That’s quite a statement given Jayden Brailey was originally played ahead of Pattie, presumably to make Sanders’ job easier.

Now is not the time to hold him back. He’s proven repeatedly he’s good enough for first grade. Alongside Ethan Strange, Pattie is one of the certain stars of the Canberra future. It seems silly to have him develop in Cup; he’s far too good for that competition. Brailey’s service has been valuable (if ineffective) in a difficult role, but Pattie is the change of pace this team needs.

There will also be (and have been) calls for Sanders to be dropped. I think at some point this will happen this season. Coach Stuart always loves to give young players a break, for both physical and mental reasons. Remember when Ethan Strange was dropped, and then shifted to centre, late in his first season? This may happen to Sanders, not reflective of anything but Stuart’s tendency to rest young players so exhaustion and confidence (or lack thereof) don’t bury them mentally.

Making that a more long-term move is a different question. Coby Black continues to improve in NSW Cup, and his boot is an elite weapon that will suit him well when he does play NRL. But removing one inexperienced half for a less experienced one only makes sense if you’re certain that one of them is elite, and the other isn’t. Jamal Fogarty spoke about how being a half in the NRL comes from experience, and Sanders can’t get experience on the outside. Stick has been happy to move on young halves who he doesn’t think will make it (Mitch Cornish, I still believe). It doesn’t seem he wants to do that (yet, at least).

After that the changes become punting on youth. Sione Finau and Mark Tualii are young talents worthy of time. Vena Patuki-Case looked like he belonged. Jake Clysdale could use minutes. These are players that get some shine when you’re out of the finals.

But while personnel changes are fun to discuss and easy to implement, that’s not how Stuart operates. No one knows his message to the team after Saturday’s loss (he told the press conference he’d keep that behind closed doors) but I doubt it was complementary. He’ll back these players, and his coaching staff, to turn this mess around, or at least die trying. He won’t unleash kids until he absolutely has to. Canberra are effectively there, but Stick may not be ready to admit it yet.

And maybe that’s a good thing. It’s plainly obvious to everyone watching that this side is not doing anything approaching the finals right now. That can change, but only if this side does the kind of about-face we haven’t seen in a while around these parts. The only person stubborn enough to think that’s possible is sitting in the big coach’s chair in Braddon Monday morning scheming for a way. Does it get worse or better?

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