BY DAN

Last year the Canberra Raiders were brilliant. Committed. Consistent. They had one weakness, and were 15 minutes of football and some better luck from being in a preliminary final with the tails up and hearts full. Then by the graces of misfortune (and Reece Walsh) that was ripped from them.

This consistency was built on a clear platform. Win the middle. Play with fast edges and mobile forwards to torment the opposition around the ruck. Wear them down with pace and patience, before unleashing big backs that could beat players one-on-one in space.

This season, Canberra are on a learning pathway. Learning that last year wasn’t an outlier, but rather the outcome of being committed and consistent. Week to week. Half to half. Play to play. This season, instead of buying back in, doing the work, and stacking the days (as Tom Starling repeatedly said in offseason content), they’ve instead sought to shortcut their way back to relevance.

Whereas in 2025 they had a clear game plan and a way to win, this season they’ve been caught between two identities, and unsure which one to grasp. As we saw on Friday, the Raiders have put together a mish-mash of brilliance and broken football. At times they’ve recaptured the vibe of 2025. But those moments are too often interspersed with periods, halves, games, where they are confused and convoluted. They’ve been unable to build their platform from last year; unable to win the middle with their stars or their bench. They’ve played more expansively with less success. The arrow-head commitment to piercing the middle of their opposition has gone by the wayside.

This was perhaps most starkly demonstrated by Owen Pattie’s performance at the back end of Friday’s loss. Arguably under-utilised this season, in 22 minutes of footy he had near 70 metres on six runs and four tackle busts, tearing up the middle of the field in a way that the Raiders had gone away from. They were unable to capitalise on it, but it was a rare occasion where Canberra seemed to be establishing a beachhead to build from. It was a reminder of where the Raiders’ strengths lie, and a contrast with how they’d played to that point.

There are good reasons that they’ve found last year’s plan hard to replicate. The game was changed on the whim of a tyrant coming into the season. Each week it evolves more and more. They’ve also suffered a precision strike on their forward pack, meaning they’re losing the battle in the trenches each week, an about-face from last season’s dominance. They’ve had to do this while incorporating a rookie halfback who is still establishing himself in first grade.

But good sides are built to overcome these circumstances; not be pushed around by them. Once they were the wave, now they are unable to overcome, or even ride with, the tides of fate. They’ve tried workarounds. Daine Laurie has played three different positions, including two he’d never played in first grade. Jayden Brailey has played lock, relied on for defensive workrate, eating minutes and connecting the attack through the middle.

These have been passable, but imperfect solutions. More disappointing is that some of these circumstances haven’t held them back. Ethan Sanders has been inconsistent but perfectly fine as a halfback. He’s built a connection with Ethan Strange that looks like it will only improve in the years to come. But this young pairing hasn’t been supported by performances from more experienced players.

The circumstances aren’t changing any time soon. Josh Papalii may be back, but in his last season it seems unfair to expect his ageing calves to turn the ship around. There’s been no word on the return of Noah Martin, or Matty Nicholson. Simi Sasagi could be another four weeks, per Raider Nick on Mix Canberra (via Blake and the Pork). Seb Kris will return, a ship in the night with Tamale, who exited for the same reason.

It’s too early to narrow the focus to building towards future seasons. The glimpses of excellence this team have shown suggest there is still something worth harvesting from this season. They can still make the finals. They can still shake the competition. Right now they look like camels trying to play soccer, but if there’s a way to tighten their vision and gameplan to something more deliverable then perhaps there’s still light on the horizon.

Canberra need a reminder of what makes them great, and they need to find a way to win contact, earn the advantage, and dominate the middle. But if they could have done this, they would have. It’s coming to round 15 now, more than halfway through the season. Be it injury, circumstance or performance, the Raiders haven’t put it together yet. We have to stop hoping they are more than they are showing.

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