BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders 30-8 victory over the New Zealand Warriors was everything the club could want from an opening salvo. They were physical. They were fast. They were cohesive and even a little bit innovative. A season isn’t won in a game, but it’s enough to make even the most hardened Canberra supporter hopeful that more is on offer this year.

Round one is a piece of data that we can too often give too much weight to. That’s understandable. We’ve been waiting months to see if problems we’ve seen before were fixed or endemic. We want to know if this year will be *the year* that pain is ended and we shout hope from the top of our lungs. But it’s just one line of the story. There’s more to come, and so instead of asking “is it fixed”, we should ask “was it better?”. And I will tell you this:

It was better.

Not because the Raiders were perfect. Far from it. They dropped too much ball, with only some of it driven by more adventurous offloading in the first half. They still lost their minds on occasion, like when Joe Tapine got sin-binned, or Seb Kris and Jamal Fogarty turned the ball over during the ten minutes Canberra desperately needed to hold the ball. They weren’t always good or smart, and on occasion only held on because their opposition was less on both counts.

But the improvements made from last season were visible and pronounced. The attack more exciting but also more precise. The speed available improved the options pursued. The defence was more robust. Brutal contact was mixed with a structural integrity that has only been fleetingly familiar in recent seasons. Decision making on both sides of the ball was, for the most part, full of clear  intent and cool-headed execution. What the absolute fuck was going on?

A game plan that had hooked and crooked its way through previous seasons suddenly had adopted an aggressive air. Canberra were offloading (12 in the first half, 17 for the game) in an attempt to overcome the narrow field by creating second-phase play. They were pushing the ball to the edges. They were off their defensive line and crushing the hopes and dreams of an entire nation. They were the aggressor. They were the big bad, not the scrappy underdog holding on and hoping for a late counter-attack goal.

But it wasn’t just froth and bubble (or the toil and trouble of past). They were also occasionally intelligent. When the game situation moved beyond constant offloading they, for the most part, put it away. When a kick rolled into the in-goal Savelio Tamale simply tapped it over the line. Small things that are smart but still felt new. A game plan adjusting as the circumstances require? Easy decisions made appropriately? Keen.

This was not just driven by a new outlook, but because the defence gave them time to work things out. They needed it. The Warriors had so much good ball in this game – they spent more than a quarter (21 minutes to be precise) in the redzone. At one point in the first half they’d had more tackles (20) in Canberra’s twenty than the Raiders (12) despite only having 34 per cent of the ball. But questions were asked and answered. Problems met with a generally active defensive line and a wall through the middle. Tom Starling, Corey Horsburgh and later Morgan Smithies (40 tackles in 58 minutes) were huge.

But they also made impeccable decisions on the edges. Hudson Young seemed impenetrable (40 tackles), and in combination with Ethan Strange strafing across the field covered an insurmountable amount of space on Canberra’s left. Kris and Tamale kept making excellent defensive decisions, like when Tamale tore 30 metres off his wing to lay a try-saving hit on a fucking prop. Forget pleasing, it was downright erotic.

The other side was under more fire. But given the amount of traffic sent their way they did well (Zac Hosking made a game leading 44 tackles and Jamal Fogarty 27. They were the focus, and for the most part they held the enemies at bay. The only major moment of distress was when Xavier Savage tried to double-down on his intercept try and jump the passing lane for a second time. It created a a gap and a try where more disciplined work would have been a better approach. Another try came later but that was as much to do with a lack of numbers (hi Joe) as it was anything to do with positioning.

This kind of defence is a foundation you can build a more daring game plan. Throwing offloads, looking for more bold options, it all represents a risk. Risk in rugby league is mitigated by better defence. We won’t know if this is an opposition-based mirage for a while. But it’s better to see it in this game than not.

It was underscored by the power game in the middle we’re used to. Tapine only played 46 minutes but still had 74 post contact metres (138 overall). Horsburgh (128 and 62) was powerful. Hudson Young did the hard work he always does. Even Morgan Smithies (10 runs for 108 and 48 post contact looked threatening. He ran through the line not to it (*Jamie Tart voice*), and the Warriors seemed extremely worried about his ability to shift the ball. So often this allowed him to make the right decision, often to hold it, and move into an advantageous match up. It’s hard not to think that playing so much alongside Horsburgh was important in that. But if Canberra now have two  players that can move the ball through the middle third, defend in bulk, and remain a threat to the line, it’s an abundance of riches they haven’t had for a while.

What started as a battle through the middle descended into outright dominance. Canberra outgained their opposition by 200 metres despite thirty less opportunities with the ball. That was reinforced by a strong effort by the back three and some good running from Tom Starling, and not just on the line break that became a try. Of particular note here was the utter physical dominance of Savelio Tamale (202m, 75 post contact and seven tackle busts) who looked powerful and quick. In combination with Savage and Weekes, the Raiders seem to have landed on pace in yardage and on the edges they can offer something different. This stretched the field and may have played a role in some of the space that the middle players like Smithies had to operate.

On the back of this the Raiders played some surprisingly interesting and cohesive footy. Ethan Strange was pitch perfect in his involvements. He read the shooter to hit Seb Kris early on what would become the Milk’s first try. He made the right choice to shift to the open right hand side of the field, engaged two defenders, right after Jamal Fogarty had taken the ball to the line, creating the overlap that would become the second. This was the kind of cohesive and well-worked footy that has escaped the Raiders in recent years, and it revealed that Strange may be more comfortable with a role of a playmaker in 2025. A third try came from a bomb he put up. He’s got a long way to go before he’s a star but he’s moving fast.

Most of these movements were orthodox, but Canberra also had more interesting stuff up its sleeve in the second half. Most notably was the use of Savage at first receiver on short side plays. There he filled both a creator and outside speedster role. Matt Timoko’s try started in his hands. He found Zac Hosking on a great line outside the C defender, and his sweeping movement to get around the ball provided Matt Timoko with enough space to make his run to the line easier. In addition to Kaeo Weekes getting the ball on shift movements it felt like it meant Canberra had multiple options to utilise. In the past a try line Seb Kris’ second, coming from a kick and error felt the most likely way for the Milk to find the line. In this game at least it was the outlier. Hopefully that can become the norm.

All it is though is a start. We weight days like these with the knowledge that one day isn’t determinative of character. We know that the opposition are in a period of transition. We know that Stuart’s teams have started well before, and not been able to sustain. But there was enough in this game that separated them from past iterations that one might believe the Canberra Raiders are destined for more this season. It’s only one sweet, sweet day. With two weeks to dwell on it there’s every chance we’ll hold this stronger than we should.

But fuck man, let’s open up our hearts, dream a little. Be willing and ready to get hurt again. Winning is better than losing, and dominating is better than scraping a victory together from hope smeared with blood. They started similarly last year and it came to nought but the marker has been moved now. This team can be different. They can be more. This was the first step on that journey. There’s more to come.

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