BY DAN

We didn’t even get a full twenty-four hours to sit in the joy of yesterday’s victory before reality comes knocking.

Both Joe Tapine and Xavier Savage are likely to miss time, as announced by the NRL today. Savage has been offered a one game suspension for clipping a kicker’s legs. Tapine a two-game minimum for his hit on Barnett. I’m not convinced they required such severe responses, but it’s early in the season so that’s when the Raiders are most prone to suffer the wrath of NRL crackdowns that will dissipate by later in the season. Given the risk of extra games I would expect both to take the early plea.

It’s fortunate in a sense. There are ready made replacements in both cases. For Savage I would expect Bert Hopoate to come straight in. For Tapine it would mean Trey Mooney comes back to the top line.

That’s not to say the Raiders won’t suffer. Both are the best Canberra have at their respective positions, and in Tapine’s case, arguably the game. Saying you’ll replace him with an up-and-comer fails to emphasise just how critical he is to Canberra’s go forward. This man takes the two best Carrie’s for every set he’s on the field. He will be missed.

Tapine only played 46 minutes in round one (partly because of spending time in the sin-bin) but finding a middle that can go as long as he does with such impact is hard. Papa can do the impact but no longer the minutes. Mooney has rarely broken 40 plus minutes in his career.

Ata Mariota may be suited to a bigger role. It’s been a while since he’s had the opportunity to play big minutes, but I wonder if his playing style – late feet, pace and agility – is more suited to big minutes than impact. He shows us such in the 2023 semi against the Knights. Big opportunity became big minutes became big output (190 plus metres). If he upped his minutes from 25 to 40, and Mooney covered 30-35 then we’re getting close to coverage of Tapine from a purely rotational viewpoint.

It will likely mean the Raiders rely even more on their two-headed voracious work machine in Corey Horsburgh and Morgan Smithies. Their impact in the victory over the Warriors can’t be understated. They locked up the middle defensively, and kept the attack moving both north-south and east-west. Both played 60 minutes on the weekend. So perhaps not more minutes, but definitely bigger responsibility. This will particularly be the case defensively, where neither Mooney nor Mariota as are routinely effective. Tom Starling will also be important.

For Savage the replacement of Hopoate is not exciting, and leads us to wonder if some of the fun stuff of round one might go missing. Savage was instrumental as a ball-player on short side raids, able to jump in a first receiver, create, and still be a supporting threat on the outside. It’s not something that Bert has any of the skills to do. He’s not a creator. He’s not quick enough to be two places in one play. It seems the sun from yesterday’s dawn will take a little longer to rise.

That’s not to say Bert will do a bad job. He’s a strong runner and will do his job in yardage. But he’s a reversion to safety that limits the Milk’s ability to transfer what happened on the Vegas pitch to round two at home.

It’s a shame, and I wish this problem were not ours. One may wish they weren’t suspension worthy, but for now they are and Canberra will have to adjust. It’s a long season. This won’t be the last test they face like this.

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