BY DAN

Despite the weekend’s uninspiring victory over the Titans the Canberra Raiders have about a good start as one could hope from the first quarter of the season. Four wins is as much as they mustered to start 2020. They are still a work in progress, unproven against quality but proving and improving their quality in every outing.

So far the victories they’ve managed, while admirable, have been against sides currently sitting 11th, 12th, 14th and 16th on the ladder. Their two losses have come against top 8 sides. Sure that is a crude measure at this stage of the season. The competition is as flat as a Friday in the office after Thursday night drinks. Teams like the Cows, ‘Phins and our own Milk are currently sitting much higher than most pundits would expect them to end the season. One shouldn’t draw too much from where teams are sitting right now, focusing instead on what they’re doing on the pitch.

Canberra have probably been good so far, at least from what we can tell from our eyes but also from the numbers. Despite our concerns the numbers are showing they’ve developed a very good defence. Look at the Rugby League Eye Test‘s expected v actual points conceded.

It shows the Milk as one of the four teams (along with the Wahs, the Riff and the Storm) with an elite defence through six rounds. Defensively this team has more in common with 2019 than any other year in the Stuart era.

The numbers also show they’re winning the field position battle, getting into positions that more often result in points than their opposition. They’re starting their sets in the 4th best field position in the comp (0.3 of a metre behind Manly and Penrith), and pinning their opponents into the second worst starting position (a metre behind the Warriors). They’ve been leading games for more minutes this season than anyone else. And they’re doing it by playing with more width than other team (second most in the competition!).

Who is this team?

Still many think that the Raiders have gotten fat off some weak teams. Luckily for the Milk they get an opportunity over the next three weeks to prove themselves against some of the best the competition has to offer. In that time they take on the Broncos (10th but rounding into form), the Sharks (1st) and Manly (8th, but having just beaten the Panthers and drawn with the Warriors). Its a murderer’s row (true story that refers to the 1927 Yankees who had Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth amongst a batting lineup that terrified pitchers and hot dog vendors alike) and as tough a period as Canberra will face all season. Still, you want to be the best you gotta beat box with the best.

They’ll be doing it without Zac Hosking, who left the game with what appeared to be a dislocated shoulder. Depending on the severity of the damage he could be back after the bye or he might not be back until the end of the season. Pardon my language but it’s pretty fucked. The poor guy finally has a chance to establish himself as a permanent starter, is doing well on the field, and has been cruelly unlucky with injury. It does not seem fair.

It will be intriguing as to how the Milk handle this. Ata Mariota again filled in admirably on the weekend but playing edge forward as Reece Walsh dances on your (metaphorical) grave sounds about as fun as being the other guy in a highlights clip. Rolling back the potential partnership with Simi Sasagi does seem like a good option to manage this, mixing a bit of thunder with more agile thunder on the edge. Mariota has shown he’s happy to rotate through both backrow and middle in a game. While his lines on the edge are still a work in progress the more he plays the better he’ll get. Similarly Sasagi’s debut showed he had plenty to offer, particularly in terms of the versatility they lost with Zac Hosking, and in Cup he’s shown he’s capable at the position.

It may be the only option the Raiders have due to the conspicuous ongoing absence of Elliott Whitehead from the field, both on game day and in training. I’m obviously not at the club but there’s been nothing to suggest he’s returned to full-time training or is approaching match-level fitness. Given he’s played 20 minutes of footy in two months, it would seem particularly cruel and stupid to expect a dude in his last season of professional football with a gimpy calf to get through 80 minutes of torment from Mam and Walsh without any warm up. I’m not saying he needs to come back through Cup footy but if they’re going to chuck him out there they need to be sure he’s prepared for it. At the least they’ll still have Mariota in back up.

A bit of consistency in line-ups would help the Raiders establish a functional offence. No doubt influenced by the Titans willingness to push Kasey Badger to blow infringements, the Canberra attack look stilted and stifled, just a week after looking as fluid as it has in years. There was no space, no cohesion, and nowhere for anyone on the spine to move. Look at the expected points graph if you dare (TW: the Raiders *should* have scored 33 points on the weekend, and the Titans 8. Yikes). They needed harder lines from edge forwards. They needed better connection through the spine, and more deception and decisions made close to the ruck. Having the same players at key positions for another week will only help.

That’s particularly the case for Chevy Stewart. It was a stellar first up performance. Unlike Ethan Strange at six there’s no way to ‘ease’ a fullback into the top line. It’s sink or swim shit, and he floated like a lifeboat. He did an excellent job in defence (two try-savers, and a game saving charge down), seemingly organised well (as much as I could tell from the box) and didn’t push his hand when he got the ball on sweeping movements. That latter factor particularly impressed me. He would have felt the pressure to push a pass and make something happen. Instead he kept taking what the defence offered. It spoke to a maturity that frankly no 18 year old should have. I’m not ready to say it’s his position now but it was a performance that suggests over the next few months we might be able to form that view.

But he’ll have to do it against the best the competition offers because that’s what Canberra is facing. They’ll need to be better than they have been so far to squeeze a single game out of this period. If they do that (or better) and otherwise maintain competitiveness then it’s an unequivocal win, particularly while they wait for healthy bodies to return.

It’s a hard road but one this group is well equipped to walk down.

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