BY DAN

Pare this victory back to its elements and for 90 minutes and about 30 seconds it was a return to 2023.

Every old favourite was there. The Raiders led comfortably late and through a mixture of good play by their opposition and bad ideas poorly executed (by themselves) ended up in golden point. They wasted position and possession given to them through a dominant pack, including an absolute masterclass from their captain, heart, and soul, Joe Tapine. They looked bereft of answers in attack and prone to crucial errors in defence. They coughed up a double digit lead. Old habits die hard after all.

But then when it looked like they were almost stealing a draw, they went one better because a young player not beholden to the demons of the past saw something no one else did, streaked down the sideline and everyone else locked in step behind him. That thirty seconds might be the difference between this year and last. Even in the mess there is possibility now.

This was always going to be a tough game. Canberra wanted to win, because winning is better than losing, because they’re building something, and because the road after this becomes perilous for a few miles. The Titans did want to win, they were desperate to. It’s a crucial distinction that is weirdly a common aspect in professional sport. Necessity trumps inclination every time. Instead of facing an outfit that had for weeks looked listless they were faced with a team that made every tackle, tested every edge and fought for every inch. Coming away with a victory, given what is coming down the pipe.

But that it was this close spoke to the improvement that is still needed in this side. They wasted absolute dominance through the middle of the park. They outgained the Titans by 600 metres, had 59 per cent of the ball. Thirty minutes into the game they’d been tackled 43 times in the opposition half and the Titans had only been tackled six times in Canberra’s territory. By the end of the game they’d had more than 50 tackles in the opposition red zone and mustered three tries, only one of which came from anything approaching an attacking movement. By contrast the opposition scored four tries from less than 20 tackles in the redzone.

Joe Tapine had the kind of game that few middle forwards can have. He turned every set into a winner. 26 runs, 303m (134 post contact thank you very much). He played 70 minutes which you might say inflated his numbers, but the fact he was still sprightly in golden point, still taking hard runs and bending the line every time, is as impressive as the totality of the output. When the attack was generating literally nothing he took it upon himself, turning for offloads, trying to get outside the middle defenders to test the edges, at times seemingly like he was taking on the position of first receiver because no one else wanted to do it. He wanted to do it, and would have done it all himself if he had to.

Luckily he got support. Josh Papalii (12 for 139, 66 post contact) was also good, and Morgan Smithies (16 for 160, 68 post contact, 43 fucking tackles without a miss across 91 minutes) is astounding. I don’t understand how he can keep this energy up each week (he probably can’t, might be worth watching out for that Stick). Pasami Saulo (12 for 140m) had another impressive output and played with big energy through his 38 minutes. Ata Mariota didn’t get big metres but it’s worth noting that he again spent a good chunk of the game on the right edge, again admirably backfilling Zac Hosking. Matt Timoko, Xavier Savage and debutant Chevy Stewart all did their share of yardage work, each cracking 200m on the ground.

The possession and field position that those metres led to should have been enough for Canberra to win two games. But despite getting an all-timer from their all-timers in the middle they simply could not create anything. In the past we’ve all complained about their predilection for crash balls. That wasn’t even an option in this game (though they did try to crash over from dummy-half a surprising amount….result?). Their current nines have a lot going for them but creativity and ruck manipulation isn’t it. It puts pressure on the other spine members in good ball (and close quarters), and with a new member at the back any sideways movements didn’t have the cohesion of previous weeks.

That, a too-conservative game-plan , and an impressive and resolute goal line defence from their opposition, blunted the Raiders’ attack. The Titans jammed Canberra’s centres with reckless and comical abandon, daring the halves to either go through the hole, or for them to get a backrower running a hard line through the tram tracks. They managed it maybe twice in the game. Once Hudson Young scored. Another time Ata Mariota nearly did.

But generally they failed to take advantage. Jamal Fogarty wasn’t quick enough to get through the space offered and Mariota is still learning the art of hole-running. Chevy Stewart and Matt Timoko rarely got the ball with options outside of force a pass or run into three defenders. Xavier Savage touched the ball maybe once in attack, and it was when Seb Kris handed him the ball with no space and no hope. Ethan Strange spent too much of the time either passing well before the line, or taking it on himself. There was no line engagement and pass, no ball-play at the line to runners on either side. He’s still developing and there will be days like this yet to come.

This is only partly his problem, and partly the game plan and structures around him. Canberra rarely looked to shift early in sets as they had against the Eels. There was little second phase play and everyone generally looked less certain than they had a week ago. He barely got the ball on the move and more often got it eight metres deep from the line, having to make three moves before he even got to the advantage. The fact that despite an imperfect game in an imperfect team he still looked a threat with his feet, and that he still pulled some under 8s shit and just ran around the whole fucking side to set up Fogarty’s game-winning field goal speaks to the talent the Milk have on their hands. Hold my hand I’m giddy.

This is an attack that needs work. Teams will have noticed that they can’t score in the red zone. So many of Canberra’s tries have come from long distance, or from Jamal Fogarty’s boot. Another try in this game came from James Schiller just outjumping his opponent, and they got plenty of repeat sets, nearly all Fogarty’s doing. But what’s the use of a repeat set if it’s the only shot that comes from it is another kick? Not enough points resulted in this game, as will be the case if against future defences work out what the Raiders can’t.

What was as concerning as the goal line attack was the defence in the same region. For the best part of regulation the Titans barely got into the attacking twenty. But the few times they did points came way too easily. One try came from Danny Levi standing upright as the slow-moving Jaimin Joliffe ambled past. Another came from Xavier Savage again making a poor effort to defuse a kick (though this week he tried so I guess that’s improvement). Chevy Stewart was at the scrum on the third try, and the Titans took a risk and it paid off. The fourth try came when James Schiller again got caught between a floating pass and his defensive responsibilities.

This is not to say the defence was poor. The Titans routinely kicked from their own third, a situation strongly contributed by a middle third able to do their job and edges that routinely shut down whatever the Titans tried in long range. Strange and Fogarty always made good contact on the Titans edge attackers, and given that one of those edge attackers was David Fifita that’s particularly impressive. Chevy Stewart added two try-saving tackles and a brilliant and desperate field goal charge down to his 200 plus metres in a promising debut.

But despite a general robustness this defence is still proving too easy to exploit, particularly on the edges. There are usually multiple inputs for this and one can’t blame the edges alone. Canberra has had too many combinations on the right edge in particularly to start the season. The issues on the edge and wings are usually preceded by a middle collapsing creating space for halves to ball play. But often simple defensive errors are being made, and worse, it often feels inevitable that they will come. Good attacks that can attack with width, like the Broncos, or Manly, or the Sharks, will exploit that mercilessly.

That Canberra managed to stumble to victory is important but even in getting there they revealed more things that require work. They weren’t even cool and collected in sealing the game. They should have escaped with an easy victory after Mariota set up Schiller’s opportunistic second. But they followed that with multiple errors, poor decisions and possibly the worst in-play kick by Fogarty all season. It was a perfect display of what not do.

But then when Strange tore down the sideline they suddenly all remembered their jobs. Hudson Young headed straight for the posts on the next run. Tapine did similar. Fogarty’s field goal, with mere seconds on the clock always felt like it was going in. It was like they were a drunk scared sober, suddenly on a mission to save the day. Maybe lessons have been learned. I hope so.

In the end it was two points, and for the most part that’s the thing that matters. Turning mixed performances into conquests is what good sides do. I won’t go so far as to say that previous versions of this side wouldn’t have managed this victory because we all saw last year.

But what made last season frustrating was that it was the *only* way they won. If these ‘heart-attack in a Kayo icon’ can be the floor rather than the ceiling then the Milk could have a good thing going. Now that would be an improvement.

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