One Game, Many Futures

You can’t learn a lot from one game, but Coby Black’s debut game will be a talking point for years to come.

It’s rare that a 20-year-old half comes into the game and dominates in such a stark fashion. While there were extenuating circumstances – the Cowboys played with the intensity of a stray lettuce leaf – it was a pleasing thing for Canberra fans desperate for someone to take control of the side.

Whether it is a harbinger of a golden era or a joyful blip on the radar remains to be seen. The road to mediocrity is paved with the bones of players who were great for a week, a month, even an entire season (hi Tim Smith) and were never able to make a career out of it.

There’s a reason data nerds talk about sample sizes. It’s impossible to iron out the variables from a game like Saturday night. How much was Black and how much was the comical ineptitude of what might be the worst finals team of our lifetimes? How much was brilliance guiding a talented team around the park and how much was pathways signposted by a defence with weakness so glaring they came with a neon sign and a wailing saxophone.

Ethan Sanders has had the job at halfback all year and he’s had some great moments. He leads the team in try assists, and has touched the ball more than anyone else on the side save for Tom Starling. Given the weight of responsibility for someone so young, he has done an admirable job as the fulcrum of the attack.

But it’s hard to argue with the fact that even his best days didn’t compare with what Black offered. The former Bronco looked faster, more agile, and offered everything in attack (the leadership, the decision-making, and the kicking) that Sanders has offered at his best. Black got the ball to Simi Sasagi with an ease the Raiders have sought all year.

It sets up for a fascinating offseason. What’s more important, 23 games of incremental improvement, or the radiance of one day in the sunshine? Without wanting to sound like Cat Stevens, it’s hard to be calm when you’ve found something going on. In the afterglow of an orgasmic experience, love can seem closer than you think. Patience is of the order. There’s a long off-season, and a longer 2027 to work out who has the conch.

If there’s one thing I would caution against it’s the tendency to solve all problems at once. There is no functional side that has Sanders and Black in it. Both are halfbacks, functionally and primarily. Making one a second option would remove all the good things they do and seek to make them expert at things they don’t do well.

Shifting Ethan Strange to either centre, or lock, would mean he got less opportunity with the ball, in worse positions. Not running in space, just doing donkey work. There’s only one ball in rugby league, and making Strange take hit-ups and tackle props isn’t going to make the Raiders a more effective attack. Making him watch the game from the left centre is a waste of talent and money.

He doesn’t need (or want) to touch it as much as Pattie or the seven. But he does need plenty of opportunities. Canberra have struggled with that this year, with him as the second option in the spine. Pushing him further down the food chain would be a fools’ errand. It’s also stupid, given we know how good he is (Dally M five-eighth of the year) and he’s the only member of this triumvirate we actually have a lot of data on.

So Canberra will need to make a choice between Sanders and Black at some point. They’ve reportedly been looking to extend Sanders, and over next year will need to have a similar conversation with Black, who enters the free agent market on 1 November 2027. Whoever they choose, the other will likely go elsewhere in search of first grade opportunities. It’s what brought both players to Canberra after all.

It’s not a new problem for the Milk. Over the life of their existence there’s been a few occasions where these difficult decisions have had to be made. Most often the decision has been made easier by differing points of careers. Ivan Henjak was on the downside when Ricky Stuart was on the upswing. Gary Belcher’s knee gave out right in time for Brett Mullins to take the reins. Josh Hodgson’s body couldn’t hold on, so Tom Starling’s admirable but limited work took over, and has since given way to the greater upside of Owen Pattie.

Simon Woolford or Luke Priddis is an example that springs to mind where the Raiders had two similarly aged talented players at the same position. In that circumstance my view was the Raiders always took the certainty over the upside. Germ’s floor always felt supremely high. But Priddis had the 2003 grand final in his pocket, one of the most singularly great performances in 130 years of rugby league.

The good news is that Canberra don’t have to make a decision right now. There’s an offseason and much of 2027 before anyone needs to have established themselves, before keys are going to be handed out in a permanent sense.

But if you’re ready to make a decision after Saturday night, I can’t blame you. It’s rare you’ll see someone take to first grade with such ease. But a reminder: patience is a virtue, and there are lessons to learn on tougher days. There’s a long time before we know whether Ethan Sanders or Coby Black will be chosen who takes us to the promised land. There’s an age of development, of weaknesses to be targeted, strengths to be mitigated, and improvements to be made before either can be declared a winner.

But hopefully when they do, it’s not just a flight of fancy, or built from one game. Hopefully it’s to be part of years of excellence, of winning, and maybe, just maybe, a premiership.

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