The Canberra Raiders 50-30 victory over the North Queensland Cowboys was a slapdash mess of a game. The Raiders thrived without having to earn it. They took their advantage and offered it right back with imperfect and messy defence. They outran their demons today, but not on the season, their weaknesses pronounced for all to see. If there’s a proof here, it’s that they can be better. But it’s not going to be for this year.
This game had all the hallmarks of the last day of school. You can say the Cowboys had their eyes on a different horizon, or that they are the worst finals team in a long time, and you’d be right both times. You could say this was one team playing fast and loose, and also rediscovering a freedom and a pace they haven’t managed this year and you’d be ticking all the boxes again. It’s not so much a riddle wrapped in an enigma as a toddler’s stick figure drawn in crayon and presented as high-art.
When a team scores 50 you’d normally expect the metres to be lopsided. But the stats in this game bore all the hallmarks of a tight contest. Metres and post contact metres basically even. Line breaks even (7-7). Errors, penalties, average set distance. All even. But this game was foundationless. Two sides with good packs that were somewhere between ineffective and not required.
If you had to pick a side that won the middle it would have probably been the Cows. The only Canberra middle to crack 100m on the ground was Ata Mariota (14 for 145m) who again looked great, a good sign for the coming years. But the pack never really got rolling (and never needed to), and never really was able to corral their opposition in defence. Canberra never controlled the arm wrestle. Normally this would be a problem.
Turns out that old truism about winning the middle is only necessary when your opposition is interested in playing defence. North Queensland were not. They seemed content, almost curious, about what the Raiders would throw at them, letting them zip passes across the middle, and watching what resulted.
That was nice of them, and the offer of acres of space whenever the Raiders shifted, mostly to the right side, was taken with glee by the Milk. Coby Black or Kaeo Weekes would throw a pass to get Simi Sasagi outside his opposing centre, he’d draw the winger and put Xavier Savage away. If only it was that easy every week.
The Raiders scored three first half tries this way, a fourth in the second, and you could argue blew two others. They were all fun. The first was to Savage grubbering for himself. He did this instead of passing inside to Weekes, something he’d also avoided on an earlier break that ended with his attempt at kicking inside. I guess it’s easier to grubber for yourself, dance around the defence and pick it up to score. Why not.
He did it again later when the kick inside instead went to Black who toed it ahead and regathered for his debut try. That started with a gorgeous pass from Black to put Sasagi outside his man. Savage got a second when it was Kaeo throwing the splendid out-ball.
At this point Savage had more tries than the Raiders had been tackled in the redzone (2-1 baby). It was indicative of the mess. The Milk didn’t so much have to earn their way up the field, just let Ata, Mokes, and Taps get momentum in a set, shift to an edge, and profit.
In the second half they didn’t really even need to spread. Late in sets they’d simply hit an offload, and run through the holes around the ruck. Ethan Strange set up one for Black, and Black set up one for Strange, both essentially running into the space behind the ruck created by broken play (for one it was an offload, the other was a ruck defence lazily expecting a kick). It was smart recognition by the players, but the opportunity should simply not have been there.
If that didn’t work, Black’s belly-bombs proved as effective in first grade as they’ve been in Cup, and got Canberra extra attacking sets for fun. One preceded Josh Papalii rumbling over the defence for a trademark try. Another created as escort penalty that became the second Savage try. It’s been a weapon for Ethan Sanders too this year. It was pleasing that the skill permeates the club.
But Black’s performance was more than belly-bombs and fun times. He commandeered a chaotic game with aplomb, consistently making excellent decisions, look dangerous when he ran, and looking far more creative than I expected. He gelled well with Strange, Weekes and Pattie, and in defence was no more a liability than anyone else on the field.
Is it enough for him to have earned the spot for next season? I’d argue that’s too hasty. Stuart has made the claim that Sanders game has been determined by the impact of his pack this season. The Cowboys were an affront to rugby league in this game, and I’d argue that Black got all the benefits of a domineering pack (space and time to operate) without the actual pack dominance. But if you think we don’t have a positional battle on our hands, you’ve got another thing coming.
The only blight on this game was that the Raiders defence was only marginally better than their oppositions. The best moments were almost all scramble efforts (Ethan Strange had several important tackles), that came on the back giant holes being left by edges that didn’t tie-in, or tied-in too much, and a middle that didn’t get consistently good contact. On another night we’d be writing about how the Raiders couldn’t control the middle in defence and it exposed their edges. That happened in this game, but they just outran the problem.
But at this point of the year there’s no point worrying about that. Canberra are as we grew to know them this year; a hot mess, disheveled and happily adjusting themselves after another meaningless encounter. The win showcased their explosiveness, a frustrating nod to what could have been. But that frustration was limited by the knowledge that their incompetence in defence meant that no matter how fancy their footwork, and good team would be able to out-swing them.
The Cows are not a good team. They’re more likely to win the lotto than the premiership this year, and their effort levels were throttled in this game. Canberra gave them what-for, and that was fun; bizarre, but fun. It wasn’t perfect nor complete. It was not fitting recognition for the departing Josh Papalii, but at least it was a victory, and a fine one at that, for him to walk out on. The least the Raiders could do after the debacle a fortnight ago.
But if it is unsatisfying, it’s because of what the season promised, and what it delivered. Canberra have sputtered along showing potential and promise and delivering so infrequently. Next season carries the same promise (provided they can find some middles) but this *gestures at everything* isn’t a foundation, it’s a warning. Near enough isn’t good enough.
There’s work to be done. It’ll have to wait for next season.
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