I’ve never hoped I’m wrong so strongly.
Yesterday we wrote that Hudson Young was likely to sign a deal with the PNG Chiefs. We were maudlin about this situation, but from his quotes the draw seemed inevitable, outside of the NRL inserting themselves to actually enforce salary cap rules.
Well, something I never thought I’d see occurred. The NRL salary cap adjudicator ruled that the Canberra Raiders $1.1m offer to Hudson set his market value, and that the Chiefs would need to get closer than the reported $900-950k they were offering him in order to register a deal. The Chiefs responded by formally pulling out of the chase for Young.
Problem over, right?
Not so fast. Young’s management have said they’re going to wait until 1 November to consider what the market offers. Given Hudson has said publicly he doesn’t want to play with another existing NRL team, this is curious. Danny Wiedler is reporting Young’s preference is to join the Chiefs. So what is going on?
It seems to me his management’s intent is to see if they can get formal offers from other teams at lower than Canberra’ s $1.1m in an attempt to lower the perception of his market value. If, for example, the Bears, Titans, and Eels all offer $1m, or even $900k, the Chiefs would argue this is his actual market value, opening Hudson to sign a deal in the more palatable range for the Chiefs. So, I would not expect this means Hudson is staying.
But I am also more optimistic that he might stay now. It’s not likely, or even realistic, but a little shoot of hope has sprung. Canberra still won’t be able to match the money, but the Chiefs will have other priorities that may mature between now and November. Wiedler says they’ll be looking at other backrowers. Maybe they sign Jeremiah Nanai. Maybe it’s Liam Martin. Maybe they sign Max King (as has been rumoured). Maybe they get Nathan Cleary, or Sam Walker, as has been part of the discourse. Maybe that eats the cap space that they thought Hudson would occupy.
So far I have been wrong about this issue in this sense. As my first-year history lecturer used to love saying (shouts to Doug), nothing is inevitable, and there’s weakness in any analysis is suggesting the outcome is certain. There are clearly of moving parts now. How desperate is Hudson for tax-free income? How willing is the NRL to actually enforce its rules? How cynical will other clubs be to weaken the Raiders, and strengthen the Chiefs? All it takes is two or three organisations happy to sacrifice Hudson to keep their own. All it takes is for the NRL to blink.
Nothing is fated and the variables keep expanding. Hudson clearly is open to leaving, and his management is keen to make it happen. The shutting of that door won’t come via the Raiders, but by the league as an organisation and a community. Perhaps Don Furner and Ricky Stuart’s status around the league allows them to be influential. Perhaps that’s how we got the original decision from the salary cap adjudicator. Perhaps the Chiefs go and get Nathan Cleary and we have a whole other crisis. We simply do not know from this vantage point.
And that’s the main thing. Young may end up staying even though before last night’s decision he was going. He may end up going despite the Chiefs saying they’re “out”. There is a lot of dancing left to do, and the saxophones are only just starting to get loud. My only hope is that in suggesting Hudson is leaving town, I’m as wrong I’ll ever be.
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