I honestly don’t know if the Raiders are still in the fight.
I’m sure technically, possibly, mathematically they can make the eight. I’m sure, if by some mischievous miracle of magnificence they string together a bunch of big wins finals could be in the future. But to me that is a hopeless dream.
This Raiders team has a fatal flaw. Right now it’s middle forwards are getting beaten. That used to be a strength of this side, but injury and form have come for them. Joe Tapine is doing his best, but he’s just one man. There is simply too much reliance on people who aren’t middles to be middles. And people who aren’t edges to be edges.
A special moment to remember something we don’t talk about enough. Without Sav Tamale the Raiders yardage game has gone to dust. Xavier Savage is getting monstered. Jed Stuart…..ah forget about it. Poor Matty T and Simi are relied on way more than any other centre combination. It exacerbates the impact of the pack’s deficiencies.
Every week the team list comes out and eyelines scroll until they find the makeup of the edges, and therefore who’ll be left over to play middle. Zac Hosking and Ata Mariota are there again this week, though in a perfect world neither would be.
Last week Matty Nicholson got through 40 minutes to spell Mariota on the edge. This week he’s in the 19 jersey, a ceremonial water carrier in Stuart’s line ups.
Joe Roddy is in the 17, and might get some time on the edge. He also might be used to spell Morgan Smithies’ staid ass and inject something approach a bit of vim in the middle.
The Knights will be without Bradman Best which will kill a million multis. Barry Toohey says Phoenix Crossland is out too, but at writing he’s still on the teamlist. To be honest, I trust Barry Toohey more than most journalists, so let’s assume he’s out too.
Without Best, Crossland and Dylans Brown and Lucas you might be tempted to suggest that’s not enough fire power to beat the Raiders. To that I say “first time?”. Fletcher Hunt is in the centres and he just loves playing footy. Kalyn Ponga is at the back and he loves hurting us. And Sandon Smith and Fletcher Sharpe were the halves when they mauled the Raiders back in round five.
But the real story will be in the middle. Can Canberra’s forwards do the job? When the Raiders have such drastic problems with yardage, can X find his belly, can Simi and Matty break more tackles. Can they put it together, just this once, for their old pals ‘the fans’?
I’m sure they can. They’d done it before, they’ll do it again. But finding a way to do it every week, every play, every moment? Without change, without the bodies currently nursing hurt, without improved performance, it becomes an idea for next year.
So maybe they’re still in the fight. Maybe they land some lusty blows and prove that there’s still some blood pumping through their collective veins. Maybe they fight not for the sake of the finals, but to prove to us, and themselves, that circumstances were the problem this year, not some inherent weakness on their part. I hope they’re right.
And that’s how they get ya.
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