My, how twelve months have changed things.
This corresponding fixture last year led to an outpouring of praise from most people, including me, about the possibilities in front of the Canberra Raiders. That turned out to be the high point instead of the start of something beautiful.
Since then, the Raiders have vacillated between good and bad like the devil and the angel were flipping through TikTok. The Panthers have continued on their merry way, going further than the Raiders last year, and becoming the presumptive favourite this year. If we were hoping for a passing of the torch, it was only a spark.
Because of the good work over the last month, the season isn’t on the line, but the Raiders do need to win two of their next three to have any hopes of making the finals. This game, the Knights, and the Sharks are all tough outs for obvious reasons. Many would be aiming for a dub from the Knights game, given their injury list. But that still means you gotta beat either the Riff or the Sharks (at Shark Park or whatever it is called).
So why not start now? We know what to expect from Penrith. Methodical and consistent fury. Deliberate and precise targeting of identified weaknesses. Doing simple things better and for longer than the Milk.
They’ve not been at their usual standard recently, are like most good teams are responding by doubling down on their identity, as demonstrated by Blaize Talangi’s absence. His running brilliance has been offset in recent weeks by imperfect defence. Jack Cogger isn’t chosen for excellence, but for consistency.
Canberra can beat consistency though. It’s not easy and not likely, but the Raiders potentially have the right mix of crazy and brilliance (nuts and gum, together at last!) to cast the fundamentals aside and simply choose a different path. The Lakers used to claim you could beat Tim Duncan’s Spurs because they’d always do the right thing. When you’re predictable that’s something to be exploited. If the Milk are smart they can take a similar route to victory.
Owen Pattie is back for the good guys, which is nice. Ata Mariota is on the edge with Hosking, and apart from that there’s little change from recent games. I’m curious how much Matty Nicholson gets used off the bench, and whether that allows Zac Hosking or Ata Mariota some minutes in the middle.
That could be crucial. Owen Pattie can change the game with his creativity around the ruck, his service, and his kicking game. But he needs good defensive support. Hosking has been the best Raiders middle at that job this year, and so if he can shift into the lock and let Nicholson man the edge for 40 minutes or so it could be huge. It’s a lot to ask of everyone though. Mariota to play out of position. Nicholson to play that many minutes. Hosking to play two roles.
That role – whoever performs it – could be where the game is won. Canberra cannot beat teams if they are not competitive in the forwards. The Panthers – more than almost any team in the competition – won’t cede them control of the game. They’ll have to fight for it. And then the crazy can be unleashed.
It’s not necessary the Raiders win this week to keep their dreams alive. But after the last four weeks it would be good to get some proof against a top line team that the wheel has turned and the good version of the Milk is back.
Because, evidently, twelve months is a long time in rugby league. Even if this game, and the ones that follow, don’t result in the Raiders making the finals, there are lessons to be learned and foundations to be laid. Last year it crested in this game, maybe this is the start of a new build.
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