Ata Mariota to stay?

The Canberra Times is reporting that Ata Mariota is “committed’ to Canberra” until the end of 2028, but a contract is not yet finalised.

This reporting comes amid some speculation – including from friendly local idiots like myself – about Mariota’s contract status. That had been bubbling away since last year when the Times first revealed a deal was almost done, and peaked this week when it was announced that Morgan Smithies would be leaving the club.

As the Times noted in its reporting, this was a surprise as it had also been suggested that Smithies was similarly committed. The Englishman and Ata share the same agent, and so us getting a bit carried away was understandable.

The language here is critical. As the Times reports

Mariota’s committed to remaining in Canberra even though his contract was yet to be finalised.

So Ata is committed but hasn’t yet committed. It’s an improvement on no news. If negotiations were progressing on the same timeline as we got used to in 2025, this would be the report we hear before the club announced the finalisation of the deal in roughly the time it takes the NRL to rubber-stamp the deal.

It’s also worth noting that the contract length is the same that was initially reported all the way back in October 2025. There’s a continuity here that suggests this has always been the plan. But the Smithies deal has made me a bit jumpy at the moment.

I am hopeful this is good news and a resolution. Signing Mariota is critical for the club. He’s just entering his prime, has shown remarkable versatility, playing middle, edge, and excelling in both, particularly when he’s been given a starting role.

The Canberra Raiders have made significant investments in him, and while it’s a sunk-cost fallacy to make that the be-all and end-all of your decision-making process, it’s worth recognising that the Raiders have done the work readying him for the bigger role that will come over the coming years. It would be a shame to not be able to reap the rewards of that investment.

And Canberra need it to pay off. Mariota is effectively his own generation when it comes to middle forwards. With Trey Mooney gone, Josh Papalii going, and Jake Clydsdale and Morgan Smithies joining, the Raiders are in dire need of a bell-cow to be the leader of the pack when Joe Tapine is finally allowed to rest.

Ata has shown the potential to be that guy. Canberra can build a middle rotation around him playing fifty minutes and clocking 180m a game. Corey Horsburgh complements him stylistically, being the connecting middle to Ata’s hard-running alternative. He and Zac Hosking were a perfect thunder and lightning bench unit in 2025. Having them do it in the starting side would make perfect sense. And eventually, Ata would be the leader that ushers in Vena Patuki-Case and Jesse Milin.

With a bench unit that would be made up of backrowers and bit parts, there’s still dire need for the Milk to get more middles for 2027. But Mariota is a key starting point. Success next year will come with better performance from their middles (and less injuries) and while I never felt Morgan Smithies was critical to that, Ata would be.

It’s good business if it gets confirmed. But we’ve been hurt before, and there’s more at stake this time. We’ll keep a close eye on this until it’s confirmed by the club, then we’ll celebrate. Ata Mariota is an unquestioned talent and his best football is ahead of him. Canberra have made a big investment. It looks like they’ll get to see it pay off.

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