The Canberra Raiders team list for this Saturday’s clash with the Wests Tigers looks unfinished.
We knew there was plenty of work to do. Changes were coming because of the absence of Hudson Young, and to a lesser extent, Owen Pattie. The ruck machinations are anodyne – Thomas Starling esquire returns, and Jayden Brailey comes into the bench hooker position.
But the replacement of Hudson Young is less clear. In reality its more about the replacement of Zac Hosking, who has been moved to backrow (at least on the team list) to cover for Young. He has been a relevation as a 13 for the Raiders both this season and last, adding critical pace, and defensive workrate to the pack.
In his place Morgan Smithies, last seen in NSW Cup. He has jumped the bench waiting list to starting lock. Given his performance in Cup last week (6 runs for 46m and 24 tackles in 41 minutes) is a fair representation of what he got up to, it’s hard to see why the club’s views of his usefulness has varied so dramatically.
Moving him into the 17? Sure, I can see that. But moving him to starting lock; pairing him with Corey Horsburgh, abandoning the pace-and-space 13 that had driven the Raiders recent success – are we sure that’s what’s happening? Maybe it’s an attempt to bolster the middle and reckon with Terrell May, Fonua Pole and Alex Twal. Maybe it’s a smokescreen.
As we look further down the team list, we see Matty Nicholson and Seb Kris in 18 and 19. Now it would be ambitious for Matty Nicholson to play big minutes this weekend. He’s played like 3 games of football in the best part of 14 months and suffered two (three?) major injuries in that time.
Maybe he’s ready for 20-30 minutes at lock, or time at backrow. One option gives him a simpler role with a more straightforward approach (tackle, run straight, fast, and hard, come off when you’re cooked). One option allows for the Milk to shift Hosking back to middle, as everyone knows he’s best suited.
The other thing to note is Kris’ sitting on the bench. Most would see him as cover for Jed Stuart (or a direct replacement if we’re all being sane). But another option we flagged recently was the potential for Kris to start at centre, and allow Simi Sasagi to move to edge forward. It’s a logical shift and meets the goal of being able to play Hosking at lock. But its yet another set of edge combination in a season full of them.
Kris and Nicholson are both named in Cup in starting position. This isn’t the leading indicator it would normally be. That game is after first grade, leaving Coach Stuart’s options open for roster shenanigans.
We think change may come. But recent history argues against this. Coach Stuart has seemed less inclined to team list trickery in recent years. Further, with Tom Starling playing hooker the impetus to find someone in the middle that can add defensive support is less critical. He may simply swap Mariota and Smithies. He may not even do that.
It’s been a while since we’ve got a proper smokescreen. Stuart seems to be leaning more into the stubborn artist mold, rather than dazzling magician. So more likely the only change is Ata Mariota starts and Morgan Smithies doesn’t. That wouldn’t be so much a smokescreen as a wee puff of air.
Canberra have won recently because of the pace they’ve been able to play with through the middle third. Insert Morgan Smithies is a step away from that and doesn’t fit the identity they’ve established over the last month. I think they’re aware of that, and we’ll see something different on Saturday.
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