BY DAN

There’s a lot to like in Canberra’s team list for this week. A nod to the future, a gift from the past, and its most impressive team list of the season. It’s only taken 19 rounds of misery. Will it be too late to matter?

Of the host of people that were expected back, only Josh Papalii and Noah Martin have made the lineup. There’s still no sign of Matty Nicholson – reportedly a week away – and Joe Roddy will be playing Cup this weekend. Sav Tamale has also – rightly – been given time to clear his mind and address his challenge with the high ball. But Owen Pattie has maintained his role as starting nine, and Jayden Brailey is nowhere to be seen.

Let’s start with what we like. The pack formation makes a lot of sense. Noah Martin at right back row is a future focused decision. Stick could have kept Zac Hosking there and chosen certainty, but like Pattie later, and even Sanders, it’s a decision made with an eye for his development.

There’s lessons for him to learn that can only be solved with experience. Early is the season he was underutilised in attack, and drawn into too much defensive work. He’s still learning combinations with the players around him, and it will be interesting to see if he and Sanders can resume the sweet love they made in NSW Cup in 2025.

In defence we’ll be watching if the slower game suits him. In the ‘high set-restart’ era at the start of the season, he was often drawn into the defensive work of the middle, and averaged over 40 tackles a game. That effort was notable, but on occasion it put pressure on the defenders outside him to cover for him covering for people. That era appears to be over. Perhaps a more effective middle defence because of the slower ruck will allow him to be more circumspect about how he involves himself. 

That middle defence will be immediately improved by a range of factors. Firstly Zac Hosking is starting at lock instead of Jayden Brailey. That’s immediately going to improve the raiders’ middle defence by both addition and subtraction. Josh Papalii’s presence in the middle rotation should also help. He’s not a traditional work rate defender, but he gets through his work and his contact makes sure he’s rarely involved in disadvantageous rucks. That’s not to mention the fact that both Hosking and Papalii can play a big role in attack turning the tide of sets.

This should also make Owen Pattie’s job that much easier. He’s obviously an offensive weapon, and his kicking game has been important in reducing the kicking pressure on Ethan Sanders. But teams were looking for him, and Jayden Brailey, when the Raiders didn’t have the ball. The impact of targeting Pattie is much different when his support is Hosking or Horse or Papa. When it was Brailey it was unsustainable, and the Raiders paid the price.

With that in mind, it’s worth noting Morgan Smithies is in the 19, and not the 17. Looking at the lineup – a traditional 16 players, then one backup half, one backup outside back, and one backup forward. Stuart has been more likely to use the 17 than any other, which would suggest Smithies is only there for an emergency.

If he doesn’t play its evidence of the noticeable lack of impact he’s had in 2026. While he’s never been a big carry player, the Raiders have previously relied on him in defence, alongside Corey Horsburgh. This season he hasn’t been effective in that role, and it’s been a key reason his minutes have dropped.

Another noteworthy absence is Savelio Tamale. That’s mercy from Coach Stuart. Tamale is going to be a star in this game, he just needs time to get his head right, and to find a way to combat the high ball. As I’ve said before, it’s not all his fault, but finding a simple and effective way to catch the ball will be the final thing to unleash his potential. There’s no point in further dismantling what remaining confidence he has. The greater benefit is giving him time to find his method away from the bright lights before it gets stress tested in the doldrums of the year. 

The only thing that I remain unconvinced of is the unwillingness of Stuart to play three forwards off the bench. The option is there – Smithies is in the 19 after all – but Stuart has shown a tendency to play his 17 as his 17 and only smash the emergency glass when the building is already dust. Canberra could have benefited from more middle energy this season, and relying on Martin to play 80 when he hasn’t played in months, or Hosking to go long at 13 when he hasn’t played there all year, is a risk. But let’s call it a quibble. The flexibility is there even if Stick is loathe to use it. 

We hate to harp on this, but this is as good as the team list has looked in months. The best of times at the worst of times. Canberra have stumbled through the intervening period is a depressed torpor, like a recently dumped twenty-something still obsessed with the past. If they just can use this new fit and a big night out to realise they’re actually money (so money and they don’t even know it).

What’s on the paper hasn’t mattered so far this season. Too often other problems – like structure, like discipline, like confidence – has held them back more this season. New faces hopefully change that, 19 rounds later. But the reality of 2026 will more likely bring them within its cold embrace.

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