The Canberra Raiders 24-16 win was a victory only on the scoreboard. In achieving victory Canberra were not so much exposed as confirmed for the rabble they are: a messy conglomeration of fear and hesitancy. There is nothing to celebrate in this victory, other than a week off to get their heads right.

That is what is becoming increasingly obvious about this team. They are rudderless. Bereft of leadership. Unsure about what they are good at, why or how they intend to execute even the basics. A matchup against the last placed Dragons should have been a chance to get right. Instead, it showed just how wrong their approach has become.

The Dragons came in with a straightforward plan. Four tackles at Jayden Brailey and Owen Pattie, a shift at Ethan Sanders, and then a bomb at Savelio Tamale. It highlighted how glaringly obvious Canberra’s structural defensive issues are. Find the little guys in the line and win the ruck. If that doesn’t work isolate the halfback. You can have one or two spots you have to cover for. Three just puts your weakness in bright lights.

For a period the opposition’s simple game plan worked – specifically the period that Tamale was on the field. Pattie made 44 tackles (1 miss). Brailey made 34 (3 misses), but just making the tackle is half the battle, and a lot of the problem. St. George made enough metres by running at the little guys to get into position for an attacking kick. The Dragons made two linebreaks, and both of them came from isolating Sanders. And Tamale did the rest.

He is such a good footballer, so brilliant in literally every other facet of the game, that it’s so saddening to see him struggle with the high ball like he does. But he did, and for a time it was the best thing going for the Dragons. They scored directly from it and got multiple additional sets in attack due to his indecision and inability under the bomb. He could have chosen to catch standing. He could have chosen to not contest. Instead, he chose jumping and trying to catch with his shoulders. Use your hands Sav, that’s my expert advice.

This mess showed just how fragile his, and the Raiders’ collective confidence is. Almost from the moment the touch judge absolutely fucked a touch-line call that turned a good play from him into an error, his confidence cratered. It infected his game directly, afflicting him with an indecisiveness that saw him taken out of touch on a shift, and you could see it on his face that he was in his own head.

So were the Raiders. During this period a pall hung over the Milk. A recognition that if Sav couldn’t get his mind right, they’d have to spend all game defending their line due to errors from him. Luckily the Dragons attack is about as exciting as the Gospel of Mark (I’m a big John man). The Raiders edge defence, for once, looked mostly capable in the redzone (both of the line-breaks came well up the field). And it needed to be, given they were outpaced two-to-one in redzone tackles throughout the game.

In response the Raiders middle, for once, did a job. Joe Tapine and Corey Horsburgh were effective (Taps had 153m on the ground). Hudson Young and Zac Hosking both cracked 100m on the ground, mostly through angled runs back against the ruck. Neither really got opportunities in attack, or running wide. Ata Mariota had a decent game too, but the 132m ascribed to him probably overstated his impact. They were good. Not dominant. Not tearing the opposition apart. But it was a platform from which something could have been built.

Owen Pattie was again instrumental in this. In addition to an excellent kicking game that got the Raiders out of trouble, into good position on the back of one 40/20, and an additional attacking set from a well-placed grubber, he always worked the ruck effectively and was a big part of why the Raiders’ pack had success. It’s criminal that he’s only played nine games this season. He did overplay his hand in one attacking set – going through three crash balls in a row. But to be honest, it’s not like much else was going on in Canberra’s red zone attack.

This needs fixing, and the sooner they have something other than sideways, or straight, the better. Watching Kaeo Weekes catch the ball on the right running at 30 degree angles across the field is infuriating, and unlikely to ever substantially impact a first grade defence. Canberra’s backrowers, and centres, are all weapons. To use them the creators need to head straight, preferably at the inside shoulder of their opposition, not the outside. It’s less glamorous but more effective in opening up space outside them.

In fact all that was going for the Raiders in attack was getting Ethan Strange or Simi Sasagi early ball (or Xavier Savage intercepts). It was so good to have Simi back. 24 runs for 238 give a good indication of his worth. With limited exception (Young, Strange, maybe Kris), he was the only player running angry, hitting the line at pace and with power. Everyone else ambled in comparison. He repeatedly beat the first tackle, set up the last try for Tommy Starling, and could have set up more tries with a bit more cohesion and understanding with Xavier Savage.

Strange was similar just with fewer opportunities, and less clear responsibilities. With a bit of space before the line he can create havoc – as he did on the try he scored that the bunker also got wrong (the bunker also got the second Savage intercept wrong so let’s call it even). But too often the slow shuffle of possession to him is limiting his effectiveness. I’d like to see him get the ball at first receiver more, or through an intermediary who’s making that connection more effectively than Jayden Brailey and Ethan Sanders.

For his part Sanders tried to run more. He never looked like getting through. His kicking game was fine, but not good, outside of his excellent grubber on the Hudson Young try. From this vantage point he looks exhausted, physically and mentally. Any other rookie would have been given a spell by Sticky at this point and that may have happened this week if Daine Laurie hadn’t been suspended. He needs the coming bye as much as anyone.

So often victories like this can be a springboard for the back end of the season. Ugly wins that we all look back on and, in retrospect, recognise as the point at which, as messy as it was, it all changed. But this victory doesn’t have that feel. What it had was the logical extension of the limits of this side. They won, yes, but they won doing all the things they do poorly, that would have been exploited by almost any other team in the competition. The difference between this win and the Eels loss is the quality and intent of the opposition and not much more.

That’s not a heartwarming outcome. When even winning feels bad it speaks to the nature of the season. This Canberra team started the season revving with the clutch pushed down. The clutch is out now, but they never got the stick in the right spot. Now the Green Machine is idling, hoping a slope will take them where they want to go. But nothing in their football suggests momentum is coming from anywhere but themselves. Something has to put their shoulders into changing the fortunes of this team. Otherwise, they’ll just be watching the season pass them by.

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