The Long Haul

BY DAN

Canberra’s season is in freefall. They’ve lost a heap of games recently and looked awful doing it. They need to do something to turn it around. In an answer to a question almost no one asked, the Canberra Raiders have extended Jed Stuart’s time with the club through the 2029 season, per the Canberra Times.

Canberra have made a degree of noise recently about trying to lock down talent before the Bears and the Chiefs make a mess of it. Young, Smithies, Mariota are names that are bandied around a lot. There is a need to get deals done. The Raiders have responded to this by signing Jed Stuart for three more years.

Stuart is a perfectly fine footballer, the Mario Mendoza of rugby league. He makes more good decisions than bad. He catches more high balls than he doesn’t. Give him sight of the try line and he’ll quite often get there. He does what he can in yardage, and he’ll mostly never quit on a play (except the other week when…ah forget it). As a fill-in he’s the kind of guy you can rely on to know the playbook and be in the right spots.

But as an every week guy he’s a problem (and not in the Ryen Rusillo way). He’s limited, in athleticism and skill. He’s not an elite at anything, and has no skill or ability that screams potential to be. This season he averages 94 metres on the ground a game, and a good chunk of them come from the fact that teams love to exploit his lack of speed, or power, or agility by making him return kicks.

Which is what makes the length of this deal so confounding. Deals of this length are usually reserved for keeping in-demand players at the club. If and when Hudson Young signs an extension with the Milk, I expect it to take him through 2029 or 2030. Kaeo Weekes’ current deal is laden with options that keep him at the club that long. There is no demand for Jed Stuart that means the club has to lock him down for that long. The Raiders could sign Jed on October 31 every year and it would have the same effect.

Which means he’s likely to be on a very cheap deal. This is where most proponents of this deal will land, and I understand the pitch. Jed is useful filler for a top 30 player. Not an every week player, but a break-in-case-of-emergency guy. And if you can get that guy for cheap, it means you spend that money on upside elsewhere. Maybe he gets better. He probably doesn’t get worse. Take the certainty and run with it.

The problem here is two-fold. The opportunity cost is obvious. That’s a top 30 spot for a young talent that goes to someone who’s upside – at least to me – seems limited. Canberra need to swing for the fences with the young players they sign. They’re not going to sign stars, so they have to make them. Instead, one of their 30 precious swings is now turned over for three years to someone who will never be a star.

That opportunity cost also has an immediate impact. Jed is not a bad footballer, and has generally risen the tide of those around him. That certainty appeals to coaches, and Ricky Stuart is not immune. It means that Jed gets time ahead of Sione Finau or Michael Asomua. It means he gets time ahead of Mark Tuialii. That’s a short time good, but is it in the long-term interests of the club? That’s less clear. It’s fair to say none of these players have been kicking down the door in Cup. But then neither was Jed.

There will be a reputational risk here too. Canberra’s resurgence in recent years has come, in part, because Coach Stuart is a hard-nosed but well-respected coach that players believe will get the best out of them by making them earn their way. The Raiders have scored other team’s young talent primarily because they see a pathway to first grade in Canberra. Will that incentive to come remain?

This is the kind of signing that will bifurcate an already exasperated fanbase searching for answers in a tough season. Jed is not an answer, at least not alone, to the problems faced this year, and this information could find him exposed to a frustration that is only partly about him. I am sympathetic to a young man just trying to play footy for a living. If he didn’t share the coach’s last name this deal would be an oddity. But with the last name it draws ire.

This will obviously, and already is, leading to claims of nepotism. I don’t think it’s explicit, or deliberate, by the Coach. Ricky has been reluctant to put pressure on his boy, or to play him ahead of his time. His presence in first grade seems as driven by the senior leadership group as anything to do with the Coach. And his presence on the roster is likely driven by people in the front office. While that will include the Coach, it’s not exclusive to him. Other people are on this bus, too.

In that regard I tend to see the Jed deal as a proxy for the Coach. His deal is also to the end of 2029, and now father and son are tied in fate. Stuart junior will be at the club as long as Stuart senior. Whether that’s the full length of the deal may depend on how else they clean up this year’s mess.

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