BY DAN

Friends, I’m taking a very big risk this weekend.

The game is in Melbourne, which as you may know is the town of my home (as opposed to Canberra, which is my hometown). I will be attending, as you would expect when you only get to go to see the boys once or twice in a year. And for the first time, my children will get to see the Raiders in person.

This has always been an interesting trip for the Milk. For a period we won so much that people started making jokes about AAMI Park being the Raiders second home ground. In 2019, the famous (to us) Once Upon A Time In Melbourne victory was the proof of what would come later that year in the Qualifying final. In 2022 James Schiller thrilled with his sideline grubber and cha cha cha. Then they eliminated the Storm from the 2023 finals with a rare victory from 8th. But there’s been as many painful times, like the painful afternoon of Ethan Strange’s debut (at centre). Has he ever won in Melbourne? Can he? After last night’s Origin loss I’m starting to worry.

The Raiders come into this game in whatever the opposite of good form is. I’m not sure bad even captures it. Last week they looked tentative and scared. It wasn’t much better the week before. If they’ve had good moments this year, they’ve had many more unimpressive ones, and even in brief moments the sunshine a bit of cloud never feels far away.

The Storm started the year that way but have been annoyingly resurgent in recent weeks. Four wins in their last five, and those wins came against teams that have beaten the Raiders this season (Eels, Knights, Tigers, Roosters). Cam Munster and Harry Grant are fresh off tearing NSW a new one in Origin. Sua Fa’alogo will just take every inch you let him. So the Storm won’t be short on confidence.

So how can Canberra win? There’s obvious stuff. Like what if they didn’t throw away any good ball they had? What if their kicking game was more precise? What if there were more patient in attack and didn’t go looking for shortcuts?

But more practically my vibe is this has to be won through the pack. The Storm spine is elite and they’ll make every opportunity afforded, so the key is to not afford any options. You dig? That’s on the Raiders pack, specifically their middles, who, outside of Joey Taps and the Red Horse, have been substandard in recent weeks.

It doesn’t help there’s still no Papa, or that Sticky is insistent on Jayden Brailey doing someone else’s job at 13. Owen Pattie is needed but won’t get the minutes. Vena Patuki-Case proved useful off the bench last week, but is unlikely to get on given he’s named outside the 17. It does help that Sav Tamale, likely Ethan Strange, and hopefully Hudson Young will be back in the side. Maybe Ethan and Huddo just hung out in Melbourne all week. I hope they got Belle’s at the original on Gertrude.

Similarly in attack, the Storm edges have been weak this year. The trick is not seek instant gratification. Break them down in the middle before you make weak edge defenders have to make tough decisions. That’s the key to ensure there’s no cover. Whether Canberra are sufficiently disciplined, patient, and smart enough to do this is the question.

There’s no shame in being clear. This game is much harder than it seemed a month ago. But if Canberra are to take anything from the season, a good place to start is yesterday. Given that already hasn’t happened, this will suffice. And given i’ll be there with my kids, convincing them to support this mental-health-problem disguised as a rugby league team, will be much easier if they win.

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