BY DAN

Is this a free hit or a proof-of-concept night?

Can Canberra turn a moribund season start into a steam train toot tooting its way into competition wide notoriety?

Tonight’s game with the Tigers offers an option. The Raiders are weakened like Maximus. Injuries and suspension carving into their flesh and making already mortal flesh more vulnerable. They can somehow overcome this and find victory, and Elysium, at the 8th wonder of the rugby league world. Or they can accept that fate intervened and decided the game long before they walked on to the field.

Too often this year the Raiders have not been resilient enough for a battle like this. Their collective minds have wandered, not for whole games, but long enough that games have been unduly influenced by the weight of the past.

Tries have come against them in bunches. A middle cratering. The edges baffled and befuddled. Oppositions overwhelming them as they hung on to the game like Hans Gruber hanging off Nakatomi Plaza. Too often the hands have slipped.

This is a perfect storm they will be up against. This Tigers team is set up to attack where Canberra hurt the most. They will fatigue the middle, with power and with offloads. The ability to control the ruck in Vlandoball was already a weakness for the Milk. But without Papa, or Huddo, or more reinforcements they will be white-knuckling.

The Tigers will then hit the edges and test and probe at Canberra make-shift defensive pairings. Will Noah Martin play left and Zac Hosking right? At least Hosking has played alongside Matt Timoko – who I presume will play right centre this week – before. Work done in the off-season on these combinations will only go so far. There’s a real test coming.

It feels hopeless. The hordes at Leichhardt will only be marginally less intimidating than those on the field. It has all the hallmarks of a shellacking of the Milk, sacrificial lambs to the Tigers’ coronation as a contender. They have been stabbed through the ribs by fate. Now the mob will be there to watch them crash into the sand of the colosseum.

But.

What if they just won?

I’m not sure how yet. They’ll need to find a way to compete in the middle. Joe Roddy will be critical, wither in allowing Martin to shift to the middle to provide additional beef, or through doing the job himself. Stopping the offload – by hook or by crook – is a fundamental part of this. Canberra cannot win having to make nine tackles in a set.

They also can’t afford to give their opponents extra sets. If Sav Tamale starts he will be tested. I believe in him. I hope he does too. Errors in their own half must be near non-existent. There is no margin for error, figuratively or literally.

Solving these two problems is like slaying the demons that plagued men for eternity. If it was that easy Orpheus would never have looked back. Oedipus would simply not have killed his father. The propensity to find clouds on a sunny day is how we stay connected to the earth instead of arrogantly floating off into space. It’s also how we get stuck in the mud.

But if they can slay those dragons, there is enough talent to win this game. Even without Simi Sasagi, Ethan Strange will be brilliant, stepping off both feet, playing inside and out, early and at the line. Jerome Luai is not a good defender. Stranger should make him realise that. Kaeo Weekes accelerates like a party popper, and his increased involvement in the attack, particularly on the left, will only be a good thing.

That’s particularly because the Raiders may have a secret weapon at their disposal. If Noah Martin plays on the left he’ll rejoin his attacking binky, Ethan Sanders, in a combination forged in Cup footy. Teams will know Martin is a hard runner. But Sanders unlocked him last year in a way that hasn’t occurred in first grade yet. Maybe tonight is the night?

Or maybe not. Dreams like these stay dreams because other people have them too. The Tigers have their own plans tonight. Their story is being written too.

In conclusion

Hope is a helluva drug.

Raiders by a Noah Martin double.

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