BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders will likely be without Josh Papalii for a week, thanks to the Match Review Committee’s ongoing comedy routine. Papa has drawn the ire of the machine, and will be asked to serve a one match suspension for his high shot.

It will have a real impact on the Raiders. A key difference between their performance against the Warriors and the Dogs was their ability to hold the middle in defence. Now partly that was because the Canterbury attack is about as interesting as watching MAFS but it was also heavily influenced by the effectiveness of Papalii in defence.

He made 35 tackles, but more than the quantity, it was the quality of his work. Outside of the charged incident, Papalii hit hard and legal. In a game in which referees are intermittently trying to assert their influence (until the game is on the line, as the Dogs routinely displayed down the stretch on Thursday), the only way to control the ruck is to break some souls, which Papa does as well as anyone since Hades was making deals with Greek musicians.

The Raiders don’t have a ready-made replacement. Ata Mariota was excellent in limited minutes on Thursday, but his impact is on the other side of the ball. Simi Sasagi has been excellent at centre, and while Stick did flag a desire to move him back to the middle in the near future, his impact is similarly attack-focused (at least in the middle). In the depth chart Joe Roddy seems next in line, and while I think he’s perfect for Vlandoball, I wouldn’t describe him as the same physical defensive presence as the big man. 

This could be exacerbated by Tom Starling’s potential absence. While there’s been little word that I’ve seen on the ebullient rake, his dark expression on the bench towards the end of Thursday’s game suggests either an injury or a benching. The latter is actually better, because it would mean he’d be back for round four, and as the best defender out of Canberra’s hookers, he plays an important role in mitigating Papalii’s absence.

It highlights a surprising issue for the Milk. They continue to have a hard time preparing for Papa’s absence. Trey Mooney left because he’s already ready, though he too isn’t the defender Papalii is. Pasami Saulo was always good in defence, but he didn’t have Papa’s running game. The progress of Vena Patuki-Case and Jake Clydsdale continues, but neither would be considered ready to make a signifiicant impact in first grade.

However Stuart proceeds, it likely puts more pressure on other people. Zac Hosking, Morgan Smithies and Corey Horsburgh will have to play bigger minutes. We already saw how fatigue can impact decision making when the Red Horse abandoned his ruck duties on the Dogs second try. This will put even greater pressure on them to be perfect, for longer.

Intriguingly as important will be the motors of Noah Martin and Hudson Young. Both have been heavily involved in Canberra’s middle defence this season. Martin has made 143 tackles in three games this year, Young 106. It reflects the need for outside-in help as the defence covers for imperfect contact or control in the middle. It also puts pressure on the Raiders’ halves to continue to make perfect decisions and contact on the edge to account for the lack of help. It’s not ideal, but that’s where Canberra are at right now. 

It’s not a good place to be. At one-and-two, without key pieces, coming in to a highly leveraged match up against an in-form contender with one of the best middles in the competition (singular – I am referring specifically to Addin Fonua-Blake) who showed last September they have no concerns about winning at Bruce Stadium. The Raiders continue to ratchet up the degree of difficultly.

But there’s no point looking back. On Thursday they looked as though they were close to working it out, until they didn’t. If they can find a way back without Papa, it will only make his return more enticing.  But if they don’t it only serves to highlight how much they will miss him when he’s gone.

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