Certainty and Upside

BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders are reportedly looking to extend Jed Stuart and Jake Clydsdale in the coming weeks, according to reporting from the Canberra Times.

For how long is not yet known. Given recent deals signed by other players within the club one would suspect to the end of 2028. Both Stuart and Clydsdale had only been upgraded to the top 30 for 2026 at the end of 2024, part of a host of players moved from supplemental/training lists into the main game. This would represent an attempt by the club to extend them beyond this season, and presumably keep them away from the stalking Bears.

This is likely to happen. We noted last year (repeatedly) that the cadence of these reports from the Times tends to be the ‘near deal’ is reported when in-principle agreement is made (or something near to that), and prior to NRL consideration. Once the deal then goes through the official process it’s reported as finalised, either by the club or through official news organisations like Times. Clydsdale has been a focus for the club for some time and Jed Stuart has what one may call cultural ties to the club. So we expect to be analysing done deals within a fortnight.

For Clydsdale this is another mark of investment from the club. He’s been earmarked for years, a man-mountain marauding his way through junior footy no doubt in part due to his massive size. He’s ratcheted up his Cup appearances over the last three seasons, and while his 2025 NSW Cup season was not dominant, the club has invested plenty in him (and Vena Patuki-Case) as key parts of the long pipeline of middles that will drive the Raiders into the future. I would expect that Clydsdale won’t be expected to be a big part of the first-grade side this year, but at just 21, and with middles generally peaking post 25, there’s plenty of time for his development to occur.

Stuart is a more curious matter. His 2025 was more impressive than I expected, proving that he’s a capable first grader. He’s never going to be a rock ’em sock ’em winger like Sav Tamale, but he never let anyone down.

But his upside seems limited. He’s not elite in any area, and seems to be the rugby league equivalent of the Mendoza line. It’s perfectly fine to have a player of his quality on your top 30 roster as a depth option. That’s exactly what he seems to be with players like Savage, Tamale, Finau all ahead of him as options for first grade.

But then extending Stuart’s time in that spot is also a potential barrier for younger players on their way through in the coming years. Players like Kain Anderson, Saxon Innes, Mark Tuialii are all players that may not be in the 30 this year, but will be looking to push into those spots next year or the year after.

Do they have more upside than Jed Stuart? Is the benefit of certainty that Stuart provides of more use when you have so much upside elsewhere in the squad? These are the questions that will plague Sticky and recruitment manager Chris Hutchison. Answering these same questions led them to letting Albert Hopoate walk. Is Stuart of more value?

If the Raiders do successfully land these deals, and finalise what seems like a year-long negotiation with Morgan Smithies, it would mean the only player on the roster not locked down beyond this year is Michael Asomua (and Josh Papalii, but he’s retiring…right?). At this time last year, I considered Asomua ahead of Stuart in the depth chart. But Stuart got the first go in first grade last season, and is also getting first offer of the pen. It’s hard not to see this as a clear prioritisation, and warning signs for Asomua and his time in Canberra.

So while the Clydsdale deal seems prescient, the Stuart deal is less clear, and laden with risks. It’s clear there’s a tension here to manage. Ricky has been as hands off as possible with Jed’s career, but he would unquestionably like to see him succeed. Success for Jed more likely looks like being a part of an NRL roster for a long period of time, and it may stand in the way of other options. You can’t build a roster out of upside, so there is value in taking the proven player than continually punting on hope.

That’s the thing. Sometimes a decision like Clydsdale is clean. Sometimes a decision like Stuart is complex. Every contract is a bet. A mixture of guesses on talent, character, development pipelines and dreams. One of these is a long-term investment. The other is short-term certainty. Both have value. Both carry risk.

The hope is that the Raiders are building a squad that can absorb those risks. If Stuart ends up being a reliable depth piece, someone who when called upon performs just as he did in 2025, no one will complain. If someone like Anderson, or Innes, leaves and finds daylight elsewhere, we’ll always remember how that player left, and that Jed stayed. That’s a problem for all players, but Stuart’s relationship to the club makes it more pronounced for him.

That’s the tension the club has chosen. Now we get to see if they manage it.

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