BY DAN

Hello and welcome to our offseason series on the six big questions facing the Raiders in 2026. This is part II of the series. You can read part I here.

You are sick of hearing about it. I am sick of writing about it. We felt sick watching the ball head that way. And Matt Timoko is sick of it being an issue.

The Raiders right edge defence has to improve. It simply must. 51 per cent of tries were scored down that side. Matt Timoko was second on the team in missed tackles (84), Jamal Fogarty fourth (74). Savage (18), Timoko (18) and Fogarty (15) were second, third, and fourth in try causes. These aren’t just bad numbers, they’re catastrophic for a game where finals are still won with defence, a cartoon style neon-arrow telling opponents where to attack.

All of them occurred in similar ways. An option of a lead runner draws the halfback’s eyes, a ball out the back gets either a fast fullback, or a centre a pass along the chain, running at the space outside Matt Timoko. He can’t cover inside out, and Xavier Savage turns his shoulders too early. It happened in round one against the Warriors. It happened in the qualifying final against the Broncos. Again, and again, and again. A weakness identified, targeted, more mercilessly than your favourite imperial missile targeting system. When teams got momentum it felt like trying to stop a river with a handful of sand.

Timoko himself has acknowleged improvement is a necessity for him.

The end of the NRL season left a sour taste in my mouth….especially because a lot of the tries in the finals were scored down my side….after having a rest and getting my body right, i’m committed to helping solve what went wrong

It’s good to see Timoko take ownership of the problem but it’s unfair he is the face of it. Centres are often framed for the crimes of others, particularly in modern defensive systems which force them into being the dolt who has to make the decision of how to solve an overlap, making it obvious when they get it wrong, but not obvious as to how they were put in that position. Solving a problem will require a collective improvement in decision making, increased athleticism and support from the rest of the side.

A big contribution will come in the form of roster machinations. Instead of Jamal Fogarty, Ethan Strange will likely be defending on the right in 2026 – a reflection of Ethan Sanders likely moving into his preferred left side in both attack and defence. This will go a long way to solving the problem. So often it felt like Matt Timoko was watching Jamal Fogarty struggle as he was watching his man. He never felt comfortable to force his attacker inside because there was no guarantee there was a body there to cover that.

In defence, as in life, football and presumably Hungry Hungry Hippos, Ethan Strange is ferocious. Timoko will have to get used to Strange turning up on his outside out of his own outsized desire to destroy any ball carrier he can. Hudson Young, Seb Kris and Ethan Strange have had a dedicated connection on the left, switching in and out, running behind each other. Strange will bring this “any problem is all of our problems” to the right side. Matt Timoko and Xavier Savage will have to get used to having a problem solver with them and being held to account.

But this cannot be a permanent solution, particularly with Coby Black’s right-sided preference putting pressure on Sanders at the halfback solution. Enough weight already sits on Strange’s shoulders to be the prince that was promised. Asking him to also re-dunk Achilles so he’s fully covered seems an unfair ask. If Stuart is to prefer Black at some point this season or in the future, he’ll need more from his centre and wing to support defensively.

This does represent a challenge of (and for) a career for Timoko in particular. His half is gone and can no longer share the blame. The winger is only ever a backup singer in this flawed band. If Timoko and Strange, and perhaps Black, cannot fix this issue it won’t be any of the halves held to account.

Sione Finau and others sit behind Timoko waiting for a chance. One thing that stopped Coach Stuart pulling the trigger in 2025 was a lack of options. Chevy Stewart was trialed at right centre in Cup in what seemed a shot across the bow, and a sign that Stuart’s patience is thinning. If a similar problem presents such a visible wound for Canberra in 2026 it would not be surprising for a trigger to be pulled – there may be a premiership at stake after all. Given how talented and hardworking Timoko is with ball in hand, that would be represent a marked failure of the club to ensure its vastly talented centre meets his full potential.

But most of all we just want the problem solved, as a necessity and bare minimum. As we saw in the last fifteen minutes of the qualifying final, in the semifinal, in round one and round 25. If Canberra have any intent on being a contender, in 2026 and beyond, they cannot have such a sickness that in the hard battle of finals football can be so readily exploited.

And then maybe we can all stop talking about it. Because nothing cures a sickness like finally treating the cause instead of pretending the symptoms will go away on their own.

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