BY DAN

2026 is upon us. Welcome to what hopefully is the greatest year of your life.

This article will not tell you the Raiders will win the premiership. That would be a bold prediction, one I yearn to make. While 2025 was a near heavenly experience, there are improvements needed and challenges to overcome before we’re willing to go that far. But this will be another successful season for the Milk, a continuation of the brickwork started in 2025.

That’s always the challenge about bold predictions. What’s more important, the bold or the prediction? Like I could say Ethan Strange is going to run for Parliament after Andrew Leigh quits to pursue an Ironman career and subsist on Nutri-grain endorsements. That would be bold. But it’s also not going to happen. Leigh needs to get up the rankings, and you need to remember there was a time when Lisa Curry and Grant Kenny were household names and there was cash to be made from Nutri-grain. If you do remember that, book an appointment with your doctor. Yes, you need it checked every two years.

But I could also say the Raiders are going to crater. That’s safe, and what a lot of people outside Canberra will be assuming. Last year was fun, but the weaknesses were obvious, and Jamal Fogarty’s departure leaves a Jamal‑shaped hole in the field‑flipping department. But it’s January. We’re allowed to smile for a few months.

For the third year in a row we cracked 50 per cent right (13 for 25), and some we got wrong in comical ways, like explicitly predicting Sticky wouldn’t win Dally M Coach of the Year. I’m not sure why I wanted to make that clear but he took it personally. We predicted Ethan Strange would have 13 try assists, which is a qualified win depending on whose numbers you believe (15 per Fox, 12 per NRL.com). Other notable wins were being right on Matty Nice and Owen Pattie, but some we’re a bit sad about in retrospect. Predicting an incident in Vegas was less a prediction and more a weather report.

It speaks to the fact that our bold predictions aren’t that bold. Maybe we need to get a bit wilder. Turn the heat up. Or the beat around. Love to hear percussion (again, if you know that, either version, the doctor is waiting). Or maybe we’ll just vibe it like we always do.

Let’s get moving.

1. Savelio Tamale will play Origin

That’s pretty bold right? I mean Brian To’o continues to exist, which means Sav will need to beat out the rest of the potential wingers on a team trying to squeeze To’o, Tedesco, Edwards, Mitchell, Crichton, Graham, Best, Fox etc into the same team.

But Sav is the real deal. The end of the season, where he struggled post-significant injury, has taken some of the gloss off an impressive first season. When he went down with injury, he was leading the league in tackle breaks and line breaks and was turning runs into output like he was starting a fertilizer business. If he’s healthy, and back to where he was at the start of 2025, I can see him finding a spot.

2. As will Ethan Strange and Hudson Young

I don’t think should be controversial. Hudson played last season, and also toured with the ‘Roos at the end of the year. Ethan joined him on that that trip, and came back with plenty of plans and dreams about being bigger and better going forward.

Young should be a no-brainer, but the NSW apparatus seems to always look for reasons not to pick him. He offers coverage at a range of positions that the vagaries and intensity of Origin football require. Strange too can offer coverage akin to what Jack Wighton used to provide when he still existed. Could their combined utility lead to them cancelling each other and only one getting a bench spot? It’s possible. But what if I told you a better world is possible?

Well, it’s not. Here’s why:

3. Corey won’t play Origin

I don’t know if Corey ran over Billy Slater’s dog, but something is stopping Billy from picking him. Horsburgh had a career year and was exactly the middle Queensland needed. NSW bailed him out by being NSW, but eventually they’ll get their act together. Queensland will need a middle who can tackle. Billy still won’t pick him. I hate that for Corey.

4. Sione Finau will play plenty in 2026

The human ‘on notice’ sign.

He’s trained at centre and wing, which means he’s not just the sword of Damocles above Matt Timoko. If Sav is at Origin, Finau plays. If Xavier Savage has a quiet patch, he plays. Asomua and Stuart only appear if something wild happens. Finau is the next cab off the rank.

5. The right side defence will be better

It can’t be worse. More than half the tries conceded came down that corridor, usually by forcing Fogarty or Timoko into an error. Sanders may push Strange to the right, and Finau’s presence gives options. Improvement will happen by hook or by crook.

6. But the game direction and management will be worse

Not because Sanders, or Black, is incapable of the job. In fact, I’d argue as punts the Raiders have two odd-on bets (low odds? Low price? I am bad at gambling) to make star halves. But being a halfback is built over years not months. Fogarty himself never really tamed that wildcat. It’s too much to expect either of the Milk’s young halves to get it from the get-go.

7. Ethan Sanders will get the starting gig and keep it…for a while

Not particularly bold. Ricky has said that and so has Dennis Richardson (for some reason). He’ll start, and he’ll have the usual ups and downs of a young half, but he’ll play more games at 7 this year than anyone else. And that means…

8. Hudson Young, line runner

One of the things that Ethan Sanders does really well is utilise his backrower on his outside shoulder. He’s got a decent running game, and it means when he heads to the line he always has the eyes of the defender watching their inside shoulder. That means a strong running backrower can cause havoc – like Noah Martin did throughout the 2025 NSW Cup season. Let’s put a number on it – 16 tries for the season.

Huddo hasn’t traditionally been a big line runner. He can do it, most notably he’s incredibly running of good mate Tommy Starling’s shoulder. But with a bit of time to build a rapport with Ethan Sanders, Huddo will show he’s got the capabilities.

9. But Coby Black will get games too

Again, probably not too bold, because we went and thieved him from the Broncos like we were those fellas at the Louvre (did they end up catching them? I got distracted by something shiny and stopped following the story). He start in Cup, and Stick will give him plenty of time to acclimatise to the physical demands of professional football. But also characteristically, Stuart will want to give Sanders a rest in the second half of the season (like he did for Strange), and Black will get a run. We’ve got two talented halfbacks! How exciting. But that means….

10. Someone will send me mad trying to send Ethan Strange to centre

Or lock, Or backrow. One of the pundits will say it somewhere, and I’ll finally lose my mind, and you’ll see me in nothing but headgear running down Northbourne Avenue screaming “why would we move our 21-year-old prodigy to a position where he gets the ball less”. Please tell the police to be kind to me. I was a man once.

11. Strange is going to be even better

Strange is going to thrive being a right-side half. It’s his preferred side, and while I’m not sure how it works with his devastating left-foot step, he showed a critical junctures last year he’s more than capable of shifting to the right and being effective (most notably in the Warriors game in round one, and as part of a gorgeous movement for the game-tying try against the Panthers in round 25).

So last year we said 13 try assists. Let’s go 15 this time around. Add 10 tries to that. I’m feeling perky.

12. Owen Pattie changes his name to Ethan in order to get the starting gig

Ethans man. That’s where you need to be. Strange Pattie Sanders sounds like a piece of equipment, and Strange Black Pattie…well, don’t step in that. Reminds me of the time when being named Mitchell or Marsh gave you a near 50 per cent chance of being in the Australian cricket team. Heady days.

What was the point of this again? Oh yeah…

13. More Owen Pattie

Look I know Jayden Brailey expects to play. I know Tommy Starling had a career year, and thrives the more minutes you lump on him. But Owen Pattie man, he makes me feel things that I shouldn’t feel and neither should you. Forget AI, this is the real future.

Last year his minutes usually sat around the 20 minute mark. I’m not sure how you manage it, but reckon he’s up to 30-35 minutes this season, presumably at the back end of the game to reduce the number of interchanges.

14. Ricky will seek to deflate expectations by referring to the youth policy

At some point this year when things are not going well Ricky will point out we were never meant to win this year. I suspect I will not take it well. Because…

15. Ricky will also insist on playing vets like Daine Laurie and Jayden Brailey because

I actually don’t know why.

16. The attack’s improvement will be under the hood

I think things will be less successful than last year, broadly speaking. The integration of new halves, other spine players (like Laurie or Brailey) and the side-switcheroo will lead to a less output on the points scale. But it’s the kind of fits and starts work that will benefit the club in years to come.

17. Same goes for Kaeo Weekes.

Kaeo was such a revelation last year, both in his ability to hit home runs, to the way he chimed in on the right hand side in attack. He’s got improvement in his game – in defence, under the high ball, and building his connection with Sanders, Black and right-side-Strange. Any team with a brain will take away the things he does best. The next test for him will be making the other improvements and finding new ways to be brilliant. I think, and the club thinks, he has it in him. But it may take a time of improvement that isn’t as visible as running 90m for a try. But also….

18. Magic Round will suck without Kaeo magic

Best moment of magic round last year, watching from home next year. Good job, schedule geniuses.

19. Ata Mariota, breakout year

I think last year was an almost breakout year. Ata and Zac Hosking were a weapon off the bench. When Hosking moved to the starting line up it robbed Ata of his partner in crime. Hosking will return, and that weapon will too.

But Mariota will move beyond the impact role regardless. He’s ready. We’ve been waiting. Now is the time he becomes the second in charge in the front line.

20. NRLW hot takes!

Some quick hits to not jump on Viv and Rob’s toes. Here’s some equally likely takes:

• It will be discovered that Simaima Taufa is actually a robot
• Sheridan Gallagher will start three (3) fights
• Jordyn Preston break out season.
• Grace Kemp comeback season.
• Krystal Blackwell will start in the halves.

21. NRLW FINALS BABY

I think this team might be secretly stacked. Players that have been critical in years past – like Mackenzie Wiki or Monalisa Soliola are going to have to fight for minutes. Players like Taufa and Holyman have complementary players like Boyle and Saunders. If there’s enough playmaking outside of Zehera Temara, then the Milk have something building.

22. There will be a gambling scandal

Not from the Raiders but more a general prediction. I’ve seen so many recently in the NBA and other professional sports that I just feel the net closing in and the inevitability of someone doing something dumb feels strong. It’s gross and I hate it.

23. In the qualifying final rematch, Reece Walsh will headbutt Hudson Young again

And the commentators will bemoan Hudson not learning his lesson. Shame on you Hudson.

24. And somehow the Broncos fans will make it about us

One of the weirder things post that game was Broncos fans wanting to defend the position. You got away with one. A headbutt is a straight send off, every time, no matter the circumstance. Pointing at precedents that suit and ignoring those that didn’t was weird behaviour. Arguing about it when you were busy winning a premiership was even weirder.

I know the Broncos have a bigger market, and therefore more fans, and therefore more *ahem* less focused fans, but it was weird to see them popping off in every online space instead of enjoying their own victory. If the Raiders win a final, and then a grand final, you may never hear from me again. I’ll just be floating through life engorged on pure, unadulterated joy.

25. Raiders will finish top 8 and it will feel disapointing

This year is not last. Last year the Raiders railed against the downtrodden expectations of a commentariat that periodically forget they exist. Winning the minor premiership last year will ensure they start the season as the hunted, meaning that with every loss the pressure on them, and particular pain points (like the halves, or the right side defence) will only increase. What worked last year won’t work again, and Canberra will have to find a new way to climb the same mountain. We saw how hard they found that in week two of the finals last year. This will be a bigger test.

26. But they’ll get their finals win

That’s the building block. Winning a premiership starts this year, but it may not end this year. Putting together more finals experience, more lessons, and building towards a premiership in the coming years is going to be the boon of this year.

Until the season starts, have a happy new year, and up the Milk. The climb begins again, the mountain unchanged, the climbers renewed. Let’s see how high they get this time.

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