BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders are saying the right things. It’s the right time of year for it, and the very least you would expect of them. But their job in 2026 will be harder than 2025. If they want to go further they’ll need to take another leap.

It was a theme this week. We’re back and we’re wrestling with the demons. No shying away from the nightmare fuel of the last 100 minutes of their season, in which a genuine, no-foolin, grand final chance became a straight sets heartache. Eyes up accountability.

First from Kaeo, as reported in the Canberra Times:

A lot of people say that we overshot the mark or went better than they expected. But we sort of knew what we had here. Those last couple of moments in games that sort of hurt you. Those last two games, they hurt us, and we still talk about it now. How disappointed we were. So, yes, it’s definitely fuel.

Then from Savelio Tamale

It hurts, yeah. And we’re using that as fuel for the upcoming season.

It’s what you’d expect. Last year was a unique opportunity, ahead of time, delivered and fumbled. They gave their all, nearly broke through the tethers that have bound them for decades, only to have a mixture of mistake, fate, and the bizarre cruelty of the gods intercede to snatch it away from them.

There are so many moments the Broncos qualifying final could have ended in the Raiders favour. It was like rolling dice ten times and hoping for anything but ones, and having those snake eyes stare into your soul time and time again. I haven’t watched the game since I left the ground sapped of emotional. Like 2019 it will likely remain a memory I never walk through again, outside of the tortures of my mind.

Canberra are hoping to turn what is nightmare fuel for us into dreams. Being open to the fact they were good enough to win, and didn’t, is a critical place to start. The pain of week one of the finals wasn’t enough to drive them over exhaustion in week two. But maybe with an off-season to dwell on it, it can help them in 2026.

Canberra will have a challenge in just meeting what they managed last year. They got career years from multiple players, comeback years from others, won games at the last minute multiple times, and generally turned the dial to eleven. They were at their best, and it was why they went so close to the promise land. 65 minutes into the Broncos finals you would have been hard pressed to find a team that thought they could beat the Raiders.

But the league never stands still, and it’s not enough, nor is it a driver unique to them. By nature, every team starts with pain bar one. The Dogs and the Sharks will be similarly charged by the hurt of finals failure. The Storm have two years of grand final sadness fueling them. The Panthers will finally have tasted failure and be running towards salvation. Being upset is not enough.

Even getting back to the same level will be a challenge. Jamal Fogarty leaves a substantial hole, and however Ethan Sanders (or Coby Black) fits into the side, the pressure will be immense to solve the same problems that Fogarty managed each week. The new Manly half wasn’t perfect – his game management at times was uninspired, and his defence was an open wound that infected the rest of the team in the finals – but expecting one of the first year halves to enter the league and deliver the same connections, the same set and structural leadership, the same kicking game, is optimistic.

That may lead to the Raiders being a finely tuned machine in need of a driver. Or it may not. Filling that vacuum doesn’t have to be met exclusively by Ethan Sanders or Coby Black. More established players at other positions of the spine may appreciate a bit of oxygen to play a game that doesn’t have to revolve around Fogarty. Pattie, Strange, Weekes. Any one of those these has more to their game than they’ve been able to show. But again, it’s not certain, and it is a variable in ensuring the levels are the same as last year.

And even then, just getting back to the same level next year won’t be enough. We touched on this recently in a more macro, longer-term sense, but even if the game doesn’t change in the short term, teams’ ability to maximise their productivity within the dominant paradigm of today’s football will only improve. The end of 2025 may have been a Reece Walsh hot streak, it may have also been him ‘working it out’. The Dogs spluttered as Lachie Galvin struggled to ingratiate himself with teammates he just met. Improvement isn’t the exclusive domain of the Raiders. The NRL is a constant arms race, and expecting that last year’s excellence will translate is naïve.

Saying you’re fueled by disappointment is a good start, but that’s all it is. Hopefully it helps players make that extra effort in November, another rep in December, convince themselves to do things the long way around rather than the ‘near-enough’ short cuts that can undermine the pursuit of excellence. Maybe it helps late in June when the pain of the season can cause a nanosecond of hestitancy in diving on a ball.

But it can’t be a substitute for improvement, for cohesion, connection and continued innovation. The Raiders cannot stand on 2025 and hope it is enough for 2026. The fuel is one thing, what change it drives is the real story. If the Raiders are intent on making more immediately then being upset or angry isn’t enough. Improvement is.

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