BY DAN

Change in sport rarely announces itself. It arrives disguised as a tweak to the rulebook, a subtle shift in officiating emphasis, or a tactical experiment that looks eccentric until it becomes orthodoxy. The teams that thrive are those that identify and anticipate these shifts, not merely react to them. History across codes tells us that success belongs to those who see the meta‑game evolving before everyone else does. History all tells us that hasn’t often been the Canberra Raiders.

Think of basketball’s three-point revolution. For decades, the shot was a novelty, a bailout, a failure to properly scheme your way to a ‘proper’ shot close to the basket. Then coaches like Jim O’Brien and Mike D’Antoni and players like Steph Curry reframed it as the most efficient weapon in the sport. The NBA was transformed. In the NFL, loosened defensive rules in the early 2000s opened the floodgates for passing offenses, reshaping rosters and redefining what a franchise quarterback looked like. There are examples in cricket like Romesh Kaluwitharna and Sanath Jayasuriya reframing the opening overs of a One-Day International, Shane Warne making spin an attacking weapon, T20 shot-making creeping into the game. Baseball had the analytics revolution. Rugby Union….continued to exist I guess? Shifts came, sometimes from attitude, sometimes from rule change, sometimes from tactics, and those that benefitted were those that adapted quickly.

Rugby league has its own history of such step-changes. In the late 1990s the professionalisation of the sport brought functional defensive lines. Up until that point there was almost no unity or cohesion in a defensive line – they were more broken than my soul on September 14. A change of direction in attach was a dagger because the idea of inside-out help wasn’t a rule, but a hope. But full time jobs meant rapidly improved athletic performance and the first place that had an impact was improving the ability of players to commit to more structured and consistent defences. This had its own impact, leading the development of the dreaded block play in an attempt to find a way through oppositions that could no longer be beat with just a step and a smile.

The second step change in rugby league came with the introduction of the six again rule during the Covid break. This change supercharged existing inequalities in conditioning, emphasising speed and the ability to tear through middle defenders, particularly close to the ruck, simply not fit enough to keep pace. The tendency for the ‘best’ to adapt quicker was only exacerbated by the fact it was introduced so haphazardly, halfway through a season, with close to no consultation, in an environment where players couldn’t even train. The game went haywire for 24 months before settling back to normality as the league pulled back a runaway game towards the chasing peloton.

During the initial period Canberra were slow to adjust. From a grand final team in 2019 they took steps back over the next few years. They continued to rely on bruising middle in a game where teams were getting smaller and smaller. Their attack remained stuck in the middle, while other teams whipped the ball around in acres of space. In short the game moved, and they didn’t.

Not until 2025. Driven by an amped up pace in their spine, edges, and middle rotation, better structure in their red zone attack and a kicking game saw the Milk finally catch up to, and eclipse the change that had begun five years previous. Handing over their attack to Justin Giteau allowed them to unleash this pace in a way that had seemed impossible for years before. At times they felt electric. They ended up falling short, somewhat influenced by the fact that injuries to both their wingers, and key edge players, reduced their ability to fully unleash the throttle throughout the game. But the lesson was learned. The step-change on 2020/21 had now been adjusted to. If only it had been sooner.

What comes next is hard to tell. There’s no rule change immediately on the horizon to causes a six-again style revolution. No game-wide structural change that will demand an adjustment. Is there something Canberra needs to anticipate? Within their roster they seem ready to adapt to anything. They’re big where they need to be. They’ve doubled down on pace where you want it, including adding Sione Finau to the first grade squad and Saxon Innes to depth. Matty Nicholson will return healthy in 2026, meaning Zac Hosking and Simi Sasagi can be deployed in an array of ways. For once Canberra feel like they’re not behind the game.

Coach Stuart sees a need for another good off-season after last time around was a success. That’s easy to support, and could be important in driving their success in 2026. But ongoing success will require them to be able to continue to identify, and adapt to the step-changes when they come their way.

And if they want to stay at the top, they’ll need to do it quickly.

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