BY DAN

The Canberra Raiders could have a ding-dong halfback battle on their hands, with News Corp papers reporting that Coby Black is agitating for release to join the Raiders for 2026.

It’s not a total surprise. We’d flagged this as a likelihood when the acquisition occurred. The Raiders continued insistence that he would stay in Brisbane with Hunt, Reynolds, Mam, and Tom Duffy, seems more about not wanting to create leverage for the Broncos. It was a similar way of talking when they were busy trying to get Zac Hosking in the door early a few years ago. The hole at halfback has burned brighter than a shirtless Pom at the cricket. When Sticky spoke of Black recently it felt about as glowing as he could get without saying ‘get in my belly’.

The reason Black wants to come to Canberra is to become an NRL half. He’s too many (and two many) steps from doing that in Brisbane, and as such appears to be ‘agitating’ for a release, something that would make perfect sense. Why would you risk team harmony on your fifth-choice half? The Raiders only have Ethan Sanders, hardly ensconced in the position. There’s one battle to win for Black, instead of four.

It creates an old school halfback battle. Coach Stuart has been clear about wanting competition at all position, and halfback is no different. He even mentioned the need for it in his recent comments about Black, refusing to hide from the fact that he needs competition, and he needs depth.

I need to get depth in the halves and in our spine. Competition for spots is one thing, but it’s also a safety net for injuries which invariably happen in this game.

But this is slightly different to normal. Usually, Sticky has one established player being pushed by a young charger coming through the system full of vim and potential. This time it’s two players with broadly equivalent chances of playing in round one.

It’s a risky proposition. Competition can often bring the best out of established players because they are reminded to re-commit to the consistent effort and attention to detail that got them where they are. The young charger brings the fire that warms the elder statesmen’s chair. But in this circumstance, it’s two players with zero idea of how to be great, having to navigate that process without any certainty or confidence in what they are doing.

The challenge could make or break either player. Sanders was the presumptive heir to the throne, and is suddenly being asked to prove his worthiness. Stuart’s offseason comments that he would get first crack will feel hollow if he finds himself in the post-Christmas heat standing alongside another talent the club was publicly ecstatic to get. Confidence cracks quickly when the ‘boss’ of the side is suddenly just another applicant.

For Black it feels like a rails-run. He’s gone from wondering if he would have an NRL future, to suddenly being a few good weeks in pre-season away from playing first grade footy. His new coach has already said the Raiders will give him every chance to succeed, and lauded his boot, and his brain:

I loved the footy IQ that Coby had in regards to taking his team to 13-6 in the State of Origin Under 19s. There was no set-up for that. It was down purely to his footy intelligence and I love halves taking ownership of that moment. He reminds me of that old style halfback who can control the ruck and rely on his runners outside him.

It’s hard to not think that Sticky isn’t just future-proofing but also trying to slay the mind-demons of 2025. If there was one aspect of the Milk’s game that wasn’t perfect, it was their ability to find a way to take smart plays on offer. Nowhere was that better demonstrated than in their qualifying loss to the Broncos, where Jamal Fogarty was unable to get them to a field goal when it was needed.

Having a game-manager at seven will benefit the squad as it is, allowing Ethan Strange to maintain his role as the wind of death, swooping in to change games and destroy worlds as he sees fit. It may create challenges for Owen Pattie, who likes to be ball-dominant too, but will be a fine mix with Tom Starling. Will it be materially different to what Ethan Sanders will offer? It’s hard to tell at this stage.

Matt Timoko’s seat will feel a little hotter too. That right side defence had been a challenge for all of 2025 but with Sanders likely joining the side Timoko was going to get the boost of having Ethan Strange cannonballing into dudes on his inside shoulder. Now he gets Black, who will get tested, and Timoko may wonder what he has to do to get some help on the edge. The Raiders have Sione Finau and others champing at Timoko’s heals if he can’t solve the problem. How fast Black’s defence can get up to speed may have out-weighted influence on Timoko’s career. It’s a tough profession.

Does it materially alter Canberra’s 2026 potential? Sanders being a net positive was already a relative long-shot. Adding another equally uncertain proposition doesn’t guarantee a better outcome, no matter how talented Black is. If you flip a coin twice, the chance you get tails is the same each time. Uncertainty becomes the only certainty.

It’s a fascinating move though, and at the very least speaks to the fact that Stuart knows he has a good team and wants it best placed to take the next step, no matter who feelings get hurt along the way. My feeling today is that’s a good thing, a ruthlessness the club needs when they’re dealing with young talent over the coming years. The reward is that Sticky gets the halfback he thinks can take this team to glory. Right now, it appears he doesn’t think Sanders is that guy. That can change, ask Xavier Savage. But Stuart isn’t going to rely on hope to forge a path.

There’s no guarantee this works out, or even that this reporting comes to fruition (though, on the balance of logic, I’d bet it does). The Raiders are swinging for greatness. Whether they connect or miss, at least they’re swinging.

All of our distribution pathways are closing down so sign up to the email below before we disappear from your feed altogether, or share this on social media. Or you can like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.