BY DAN

The chase is off. Or is it?

The Canberra Raiders humbly withdrew from the Jonah Pezet sweepstakes. They cited salary cap constraints and suggested they expected Pezet to sign with the Cowboys. And that seemed to be the end of it.

Until Pezet’s manager, Braith Anasta, jumped on the Greenhouse’s Instagram page to suggest it wasn’t a not-done-deal (as opposed to not a done deal). The implication seemed to be whatever the club was telling the Canberra Times wasn’t consistent with what they were telling Braith.

There are two ways of interpreting this. The first is to accept the club at face value. They do think he’ll go to the Cows, and they do think the price is too steep for them. Pezet is also in demand from the Titans and presumably the Knights, and has a contract for many years with the Storm, so it’ll take a fair bit of cash to blow all that up. This increased demand, Canberra’s need to retain Ata Mariota and Morgan Smithies, and a cap situation restricted by their decision to upgrade key talent ahead of time, all combine to make it hard to compete for big money.

In this scenario the very special genius that is Braith Anasta doesn’t want the Raiders’ lack of interest to let either the Cows or the Titans think they’re in a less leveraged situation. He wants them to think Canberra are still in. That the Knights are in. Shit he wants you to think the Young Cherrypickers are ready to break the bank. It raises the ante for everyone involved in negotiations. And all that from the power of a random comment on a post by rugby league’s foremost forum! How good.

Embracing a bit of cui bono does make this the most likely outcome. But there’s another in which this is both true, but also Canberra are still in the race. The Raiders may think the price is too high, and think the Cows will be better placed to pay big money. Stepping away allows them to take the heat out of the negotiations, hopefully allowing the cost to remain in a space they can play.

As negotiation tactics go it’s more hopeful than strategic. Removing themselves from the discussion is unlikely to reduce the aggregate demand for Pezet in a substantial way. Every club without an established seven is trying to get their hands on him. It may be in Canberra’s interest to make the play, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to work.

It’ll be interesting to watch. As we noted before, the interest, if permanent, raises questions about the club’s confidence in Ethan Sanders’ progress. Pezet is on the same trajectory, just slightly further along the pathway. Getting him wouldn’t be cheap, and given the club has already invested heavily in Sanders, it puts a lot of resources into the position and risks other negotiations. Making two big investments in unproven halfbacks can result in having a foot in two camps and may undermine the development of both. Coach Stuart does love his competition philosophy, but when the job is to have the mentality of driving the team around, being only occasionally in charge can undermine confidence.

The initial interest of the Raiders was to get him as a third half, potentially on a loan deal. This could be characterised as cursory, an attempt to get a highly talented player that might be floating around for an opportunity. But if the Raiders stay in the race as the money and years and permanence heat up, there will be little way to take it other than a question of Sanders’ development, and therefore Canberra’s immediate chances for 2026.

Time will tell which truth is real. The indications will come in the coming weeks as the extent of the Raiders’ true interest, and the chosen destination of Pezet, are revealed.

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