BY DAN

It seems broadly accepted by all and sundry that Trey Mooney is leaving the Canberra Raiders for the Newcastle Knights.

As far as we can tell, it hasn’t been finalised. The mainstream reporting around it isn’t certain. Barry Toohey, the doyen of Newcastle rugby league media, is still framing the deal as could instead of will. There has also been reporting that a curious conditionality has been attached — Mooney supposedly reserves the right to bounce if he doesn’t like changes to the coaching staff.

That’s a fascinating clause for a dude not even regularly playing first grade to insist on. It reflects the relative power in the positions of player and club, though. Newcastle are desperate for middle talent, raiding the Raiders who have raided them (p)reviously (oh yeah, that’s some good writing). Given Leo Thompson is walking out the door, and whichever Saifiti is still there will be 30 next season, the Knights are at the point of just trying to get the talent in the door and worry about the conditions later.

For Mooney, this conditionality has a two-fold benefit. From his perspective, he wants to be playing first grade footy next year. Not the year after. Not in two years’ time. Regular starting time from next year, please. He may have that pitch from the current hierarchy, but the club will almost certainly fire Adam O’Brien this offseason. If they do something insane like bring in Des Hasler and his penchant for ruining good players’ careers, Mooney wants to be protected from the insanity.

That’s smart business, if you can land it. But it also works as double-bind protection. While it seems increasingly certain that Josh Papalii will be staying at the Milk, that’s not yet finalised. If it fails to happen, there is a world in which Papa walks/retires/vibes out at the end of the season, and Mooney wants to stay. Given the near certainty that O’Brien is cooked, this clause would give Mooney the out he needs to remain in Canberra if Papa leaves. It’s unlikely that would actually occur, and seems more about keeping his options open than crowbarring his way out of town.

It’s an intriguing scenario. The Raiders have publicly stated that they want to keep Mooney but won’t stand in his way. It’s hard to tell the mix of factors that go into that. A winning season, a deal with Papa, a pipeline that looks hearty, and a Mooney season in Cup I’d describe as true-to-form rather than rocket-ship-like improvement, may all be making the club fairly sanguine about his departure. If they really wanted to keep him, they would. As we’ve said previously, they have form there. They’re just not that into him, evidently.

Ricky is rarely wrong about these things, as we’ve chronicled through the Tevita Pangai All Stars over the years (latest here). Despite our consternation about players leaving, the only ones that bite tend to be the ones we wish we could have kept. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Mooney — at least not in a wholehearted sense.

We still await this being finalised. The hope aspect of this is tainted: we can only keep Mooney if there are minutes for him, and there will only be minutes for him if Papa doesn’t stay. That seems increasingly unlikely. Papa and the club have been engaged in a public display of affection not seen since Schmoopie. He wants to stay; it’s just about enough bags of cash being lined up on the table (or under it. Wait — this isn’t Bondi).

That won’t be resolved for some time. Adam O’Brien still has three weeks on the job. Don Furner has previously said it’s unlikely a deal with Papa would be finalised before the end of the season. If he does decide to retire, one can only assume if it is with a premiership in his kit bag. That means it’ll be hungry hungry hippos at 3am until we know what’s actually going on.

But we are now working on the assumption that Mooney won’t be here next year. Apart from more time for Papa, it will presumably see more opportunities for players like Mahles Mahtin (sorry, that guy from the NSW Cup broadcasts gets in my head), Jake Clydsdale and others (Mitch Prest continues to impress? Am I insane? Possibly). At the very least, the NSW Cup team next year will have a very different looking frontline. The fact that may be the biggest impact of Mooney’s absence speaks volumes for why the club seems so comfortable letting him leave.

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