BY DAN

Are you ready?

Finals come early. Truth telling about football sides. Something about Mum’s spaghetti.

This Friday’s clash with the Panthers isn’t just a big game. It’s huge. Telstra Tower huge. Mal Meninga huge. Winning would mean that this horror movie of Panthers dominance is one step closer to ending, substantially undermining their ability to make the top four, and making the trip through the finals that more perilous.

Of course they can be the first team to win from outside the top four in the NRL era, but let’s at least make it difficult. They’re already running on fumes, with commentators speculating about the health of their stars in recent weeks. To me they’re increasingly taking on the visage of the 1991 Canberra Raiders. Brilliant, but injured, and exhausted from the trials and tribulations of being so great for so long. Making their run as hard as possible is a good step.

But this is actually less about them and more about the Raiders. Winning will basically ensure a top two spot, and the potential for both a home qualifying and home preliminary final. It could also really go a long way to ensuring that Canberra finish with the minor premiership, the first since 1990, which if you weren’t alive, was an extremely long time ago. We still listened to music on tapes then. Regardless of its relative value compared to a premiership, winning the JJ can happen now, without jeopardising the bigger picture and even making it easier.

There’s a more nebulous discussion. The Panthers are still the yardstick upon which all things are measured. Until they have the common decency of being shit for a bit it’s going to stay that way. You want to win a chip? Chances are you’re going to have to go through Penrith, even if it’s not literally the case. They’ve still got the best defence in the competition, turning a poor start to the season into a characteristically miserly 14.3 ppg over the eleven weeks up to Friday’s game, as we outlined here. They’ve still got Nathan Cleary. They’ve still got Ivan.

Standing up against this side isn’t just confidence. It’s solid gold proof of who you are. Outside of the nation’s capital, no one really believes in the Raiders. That’s their business. Apparently 3rd best attack and 4th best defence and most wins isn’t impressive. Second most tries, third most line breaks and tackle breaks, most post contact metres, none of these things change the etched-in-stone views of the perpetual takesmen. They don’t trust the change that sprung them from pre-season, nor the obvious growth that has taken place over the season (such as the improvements to their defence which we chronicled here). Most of them barely watch Canberra, and rely on priors that have been in place so long they could buy drinks.

It’s also influenced by the fact that the Raiders attack is unorthodox, relentlessly aggressive, as interestingly outlined by Assistant Coach Justin Giteau in an excellent interview, primarily with Matt Le Nevez, on this episode Raiders Review with Blake and the Pork. The Milk have built an attack based less on the common philosophy of ‘get to a spot and throw a particular shape’ and more about taking as many shots as possible. Players like Ethan Strange aren’t trying to be of the mould, they’re trying to break it.

It’s unusual in comparison to the rest of the league, which makes it hard for people to believe in. If Canberra don’t do it like Penrith (like the Dogs are trying to) then is it even good? Add the fact that this style wasn’t how they played last year, and you can understand why people who don’t watch the Raiders succeed each week struggle with the concept of them being good.

But being different is exactly the reason that the Milk can beat the Panthers. Like Shooter McGavin, they’ve been eating the same shape and structures for five grand final breakfasts now. You can’t beat them by doing the same, and to the Raiders credit they’re not trying to. Their footy is different, more aggressive, more unconventional. Hopefully they can continue to back it all the way in.

Canberra have been a team searching for a fight for a while. The draw was somewhat favourable, but you can tell this team has been itching for a scritching for some time now. Manly gave them a little bit of a dust up, and the Dragons before that. But Friday presents the opportunity for a good old fashioned donnybrook, a proper test of who they are and where they’re going.

I cannot wait.

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