BY DAN

Bye week at this stage of the year feels like cheating.

Here the Canberra Raiders are, sitting pretty, getting two points for doing nothing. Meanwhile the world is about to enter chaotic conflict beneath them. Panthers v Storm. Dogs v Roosters. Broncos v Dolphins. Even the Wahs are playing for their life against a side that has beaten the Raiders and the Sharks in the past fortnight. And here are the Milk, basking in the glow of their success, knowing that the battles of the future are tomorrow’s problem.

The bloc of games on the other side of the bye will determine whether the Raiders end up with a first week home final. According to the guru of these things Chris Coleman, Canberra could lose out and still be sure to finish third. But the Raiders are unlikely to want to do that, and the three games they have coming will be as good preparation as you could want to enter the finals with.

The Panthers are the whole league’s big bad, having come from last to almost certainly ending up in the top four. It’s worth noting the last time the Panthers beat someone good was June. Since their bye round in round 18 they’ve beaten the Eels, Bunnies, Tigers, Titans and Knights. Similar winning streaks from the Milk or the Dogs were hand-waved. There’s obviously a reason we’re not doing this with the Panthers. They simply refuse to die. The Tigers will be a fight, and the ‘Phins could be anything, but we all know that the Panthers battle will be the best indicator of where both sides are.

Canberra are prepared for the battle. What was exciting about their victory over Manly was their ability to show the many strings of their bow. Ethan Strange’s dominance was not so much a new one, but the extent of it was. Add that to Weekes out the back on the right, Moko hitting lines, and Jamal Fogarty’s boot, and it seems like the Raiders have plenty of spots on the field they can attack in short yardage. Add to that the likely return of Sav Tamale and Matty ‘Muffins’ Nicholson (we had a nice run ‘Matty Nice’, but Muffins was always going to win that battle), and it feels like any questions of the sustainability of the Milk’s offensive success have been silenced.

That improvement is impressive, but the defensive resolve that has been displayed of late should also provide comfort. In recent times they’ve shown an impressive ability to defend mistakes (necessarily). We saw it last weekend against Manly. We’ve seen it in other weeks too. Canberra have tightened up.

Much is made of the fact that you need a top tier defence to win premierships. Only the best in the competition are good enough to be successful. While Canberra’s defence was fast and loose earlier in the year, and even we’ve made note of the relative weakness of the right side, the Raiders still have the fourth best defence on points per game basis (per @ReadingthePlay on twitter).

But even that is improving. Since they conceded 30 to Dogs in round 10, they only conceded 20 point three times, and only once since 1 June. They’ve only conceded 17.1 points per game (PPG) in that period, a number that compared to season averages would give them the second best defence in the competition. Unfortunately everyone else has tigtened up too. Here are the top four defences.

Team	PPG conceded (season)	PPG (since 10 May)
Bulldogs	16.7	16.5
Storm	17.9	16.6
Panthers	19.0	14.3
Raiders	19.9	17.1

You can make the grand final with the fourth best defence. The Storm did last year. The Eels had the 8th best defence in 2022, the Cows the 5th best in 2017, the Dogs in 2014. But in the NRL era only the Cows (2015) and the Tigers (2005) have won without a top 3 defence. This isn’t a reason to write off the Raiders but it both highlights the improvement and the gap they are working to make up. Each week the improvement is there.

Will it be enough? That’s the kind of thing we can spend a bye week worrying about. While the Raiders are tinkering the rest of the competition will be Itchy and Scratchying each other in their absence. Canberra are getting right and ready for a real run.

Do me a favour and like the page on Facebook, follow me on Twitter, or share this on social media because love is true and heaven is a Raiders victory. Don’t hesitate to send us feedback (dan@sportress.org) or comment below if you think we are stupid. Or if we’re not.